Category Archives: Big picture ideas

Looking for a good baseball researcher

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I recently got an email from a regular reader worth sharing here. He wrote:

Do you know if anyone has done any research into the effects of the strength of schedule in evaluating teams and how good or how not so good they may be and the effect it has on individual player statistics?

Think of it this way. Teams that play a lot of good clubs should have fewer wins than comparable teams playing teams with losing records. There should be a way of measuring and evaluating this, don’t you think? And to take it even further, it should be possible to rate each hitter and each pitcher vs one another to see who may have their stats either artificially inflated or deflated by the competition level they face. One guys .285/350/450 line may be significatly better than the guy who’s 320/380/535, or the pitcher who’s 12-11 may be better than the guy who went 17-8.

What got me thinking about it is that the key to winning is to play .500 ball against teams with winning records and beat up on the bad teams. With all the strange schedules and uneven matchups, it seems these should, or could be taken into account and measured, say in the same way the pythagorian formula creates simulated win/loss totals.

Look at how the scheduling this year has especially blessed the Reds and the Rangers who’ve feasted on an abundance of rotten teams and been manhandled whenever they’ve played teams with winning records or from competitive divisions. It’s probably part of the reason that Hamilton and Votto have even been mentioned as possible triple crown winners and may even be measurable as to how much it’s added to their counting numbers.

Thoughts? Worthwhile looking into?

I definitely think it merits checking out. I already believe the strength of a player’s team affects his performance. Just a few weeks ago, I ran Nate Colbert’s numbers through the stat converter on Baseball-Reference and noted the large jump he could have experienced playing on a powerhouse from an earlier era than the one he played in. It would logically follow that strength of schedule impacts individual stats, as well. I’m guessing there probably is a way to quantify this, though I’m not sure if I want to be the guy to do it.

Thus, I’m posting something here in hopes a baseball researcher may be up to the challenge. I will happily give full credit here once the results are in. Of course, please let me know if something like this already exists.

10 great baseball movies that haven’t been made

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Game of Shadows: With Moneyball in production, one has to wonder what great baseball book may next become a film. My vote is the best work on the Steroid Era which documented the rises and falls of Barry Bonds, Jason Giambi, and Marion Jones, while introducing characters like showboating steroid dealer Victor Conte and dumpster-diving IRS agent Jeff Nowitzky. It’s got many elements for a great movie including suspense, tragedy, and a little dark humor. Some may argue steroids in baseball are so five years ago but this movie would be no more dated than one touting Billy Beane as a genius.

Anything about the Negro Leagues: Correct me if I’m wrong, but it seems there has never been a major studio release about black baseball, which is unfortunate because it offer a wealth of poetic, sometimes heartbreaking stories. There’s Rube Foster, who helped launch a league but died broken, Josh Gibson, perhaps the greatest star of black baseball who died in 1947 at 35, disillusioned because he wouldn’t get to break the color barrier in the majors, and many others like them.

The Boys of Summer, Ball Four, Veeck as in Wreck, The Catcher Was a Spy: Ball Four was incendiary in its time, a playing diary of the 1969 season that revealed players as drunks, louts, and racists. There’s more than enough great anecdotes in the more than 400 pages for a screenplay, and with a 40th anniversary edition just released, it would be timely. The Boys of Summer is another personal favorite, glorifying the Brooklyn Dodgers. I haven’t read Veeck as in Wreck or The Catcher Was a Spy, but each illuminates a memorable baseball figure: innovative owner Bill Veeck and sometimes catcher/possible World War II spy Moe Berg.

Something on Pete Rose: The life story of the all-time hits king, barred from baseball for gambling seems like a movie waiting to happen. One possibility is Field of Dreams II, where Rose convinces an Iowa farmer to plow under his corn to build a baseball field so he can come back and play ball. And bet on those games.

The Oakland Athletics of the early 1970s: If ESPN can produce The Bronx is Burning about the New York Yankees of the late 1970s, why doesn’t someone make something on a squad with more World Series titles, a wackier owner, and a more highly-evolved level of dysfunction? Sports Illustrated provided a film treatment, of sorts, with this outstanding article in 1999.

Something by the Frat Pack: When I think of Jack Black, Will Ferrell, Ben Stiller and company, I picture a movie about early 20th century baseball, when drunk, rowdy, and profane players scarcely ranked above second-class citizens. I could also see these actors in a project about another raucous club, the 1993 Philadelphia Phillies, since Black seems a clone for John Kruk, Stiller could play talented but neurotic Mitch Williams, and Ferrell, with some suspension of disbelief, could play Darren Daulton.

The Eddie Gaedel Story: This would be a short. Oh, I’m bad.

New stat: Runs Accounted For – RAF

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Here’s a trivia question question that may stump even the most ardent of baseball fans and historians: What’s an offensive feat measured over the course of a season that Wally Berger, Nate Colbert, and Sammy Sosa have accomplished and Lou Gehrig, Willie Mays, and other immortals have not?

Answer: Colbert, Berger, and Sosa are among a small group of players who had a hand in at least 30 percent of their team’s runs in a season.

I call this stat Runs Accounted For (RAF) and it’s fairly easy to calculate. Just add a player’s RBI and run totals for a season, subtract home runs since those count double, and divide by the total number of runs his team scores. From there, multiply by 100 to get the percentage of runs a player accounts for.

To be clear, RAF proposes that a player has a hand in any run he bats in or scores himself. While this admittedly leads to some double counting among teammates, since one player can score on another man’s RBI, I think it’s a good way to make relative comparisons between players of different eras and compensate for those who played on worse teams than others.

RAF rates players, past and present, who were most-indispensable to helping their teams score runs. The stat also rewards good base running, an underrated offensive skill and correlates strongly to OPS, a combination of on-base and slugging percentage. In fact, I used the lists of OPS leaders to seek out possible candidates for here.

It quickly became apparent in calculating RAF that while many players have accounted for at least 25 percent of their team’s runs in a season, few have cracked 30 percent. I’m uncertain why this is. I know of 18 players who have done it a total of 29 times. They are as follows, in order of highest RAF:

Player Year RAF Runs RBI HR Team W/L Team Runs
1 Ted Williams 1942 36.53% 141 137 36 Red Sox 93-59 761
2 Honus Wagner 1908 34.02% 100 109 10 Pirates 98-56 585
3 Babe Ruth 1919 33.33% 103 114 29 Red Sox 66-71 564
4 Nate Colbert 1972 32.78% 87 111 38 Padres 58-95 488
5 Wally Berger 1935 32.52% 91 130 34 Braves 38-115 575
6 Ty Cobb 1909 32.13% 116 107 9 Tigers 98-54 666
7 Ty Cobb 1911 32.01% 147 127 8 Tigers 89-65 831
8 Nap Lajoie 1901 31.8% 145 125 14 Athletics 74-62 805
9 Chuck Klein 1933 31.795% 101 120 28 Phillies 60-92 607
10 Ty Cobb 1917 31.77% 107 102 6 Tigers 78-75 639
11 Tris Speaker 1914 31.75% 101 90 4 Red Sox 91-62 589
12 George Sisler 1919 31.71% 96 83 10 Browns 67-72 533
13 Sammy Sosa 2001 31.15% 146 160 64 Cubs 88-74 777
14 Ty Cobb 1915 30.98% 144 99 3 Tigers 100-54 778
15 Chuck Klein 1931 30.85% 121 121 31 Phillies 66-88 684
16 Joe Jackson 1912 30.72% 121 90 3 Naps 75-78 677
17 Bill Nicholson 1943 30.696% 95 128 29 Cubs 74-79 632
18 Stan Musial 1948 30.59% 135 131 39 Cardinals 85-69 742
19 Hank Aaron 1963 30.57% 121 130 44 Braves 84-78 677
20 Chuck Klein 1930 30.51% 158 170 40 Phillies 52-102 944
21 Babe Ruth 1921 30.49% 177 171 59 Yankees 98-55 948
22 Ty Cobb 1907 30.45% 97 119 5 Tigers 92-58 693
23 Dale Murphy 1985 30.38% 118 111 37 Braves 66-96 632
24 Home Run Baker 1912 30.295% 116 130 10 Athletics 90-62 779
25 Nap Lajoie 1910 30.292% 94 76 4 Naps 71-81 548
26 Ty Cobb 1918 30.25% 83 64 3 Tigers 55-71 476
27 Honus Wagner 1905 30.2% 114 101 6 Pirates 96-57 692
28 George Sisler 1920 30.11% 137 122 19 Browns 76-77 797
29 Jeff Bagwell 1994 30.07% 104 116 39 Astros 66-49 602

Several greats never cracked 30 percent, including: Barry Bonds, Joe DiMaggio, Jimmie Foxx, Lou Gehrig, Hank Greenberg, Ken Griffey Jr., Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, and Al Simmons, whose careers I examined year-by-year on Baseball-Reference. If anyone has a player they think qualifies, let me know, and if necessary, I’d be happy to add him here.

In general, RAF appears to favor three types of players:

  1. Lone guns on bad teams
  2. Speedy contact hitters with sizable RBI and run totals, but few home runs
  3. Those greats who would have shined no matter the era

The stat is less rewarding to a DiMaggio or a Gehrig, who had the misfortune — at least for our purposes here — to play on star-packed clubs. Gehrig may have the most runs ever accounted for in one season, with 301 in 1931, though that was just over 28 percent of the 1,067 his Yankees amassed. Most years, Ruth and Gehrig drove each others percentages down. Same thing for Foxx and Simmons, as well as Greenberg and Charlie Gehringer. Enos Slaughter and Musial each just missed accounting for 30 percent of the Cardinals’ runs in 1946.

Interestingly, Bonds accounted for more runs before he (probably) started using steroids in 1999. Bonds had a hand in more than 200 runs three times in his career: 1993, 1996 and 1998, one more reason he might have been better clean. The younger Bonds also won Gold Gloves which probably saved some runs, too.

Of the players who accounted for 30 percent or more of their teams’ runs at least once, I don’t know what’s more impressive: That Cobb accomplished the feat six times in a twelve-season stretch or that Ruth and Lajoie did it for multiple teams. More astonishing? Ted Williams’ 1942 season, where he accounted for 36.53 percent of Boston’s runs and won the Triple Crown, wasn’t enough for American League Most Valuable Player honors. The award went to Joe Gordon, who accounted for just 21.6 percent of the American League champion Yankees’ runs and didn’t even lead his team in the stat, finishing behind Joe DiMaggio and Charlie Keller.

Related: A compilation of quirky stats and big crazy ideas I’ve introduced here

10 players who might have hit .400 for the 1999 Colorado Rockies

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At the end of yesterday’s post, I noted that the stat converter on Baseball-Reference says Home Run Baker would have .413 if his 1913 season was translated to the 1999 Colorado Rockies, and I wondered aloud how many other players would hit .400 there. The idea stuck in my head, and I started playing around with the converter Thursday evening. It turns out an astonishing number of players could theoretically have hit .400 if they’d played a prime season for Colorado in ’99.

As I noted yesterday, the converter’s far from perfect, though I had fun seeing how ridiculously well some of the all-time greats may have done. Here are how ten stars might have fared on ’99 Rockies, which could double as a list of Hall of Fame-caliber players who never hit .400:

Player What his numbers convert to for the ’99 Rockies
Hank Aaron His 1959 season where he led the majors with a .355 average translates to .418, with 53 home runs and 305 hits
George Brett His magical 1980 season where he flirted with .400 for much of the year and finished at .390 is good for .454
Rod Carew Another player, like Brett, who nearly hit .400 when he batted .388 in 1977, Carew’s numbers convert to .456. In fact, if Carew played his career on a team like the ’99 Rockies, he’d hit over .400 six straight years and his lifetime average would be .395
Joe DiMaggio He would twice hit over .400, for his 1939 and 1941 seasons, if he played on a team like the ’99 Rockies. Interestingly, he’d have the better average in 1939 — .414 to .403 in 1941, the year of his 56-game hitting streak.
Tony Gwynn Gwynn would hit over .400 eight seasons playing on a team like the ’99 Rockies, peaking at .440 in 1987 and finishing at a .396 lifetime clip (he and Carew have nothing, however, on Ty Cobb, Rogers Hornsby and Joe Jackson who would hit over .400 lifetime. Cobb finishes with an almost nauseating .431 career average, eclipsing .400 13 consecutive years.)
Derek Jeter This might be the most interesting name here, because Jeter’s ’99 season with the Yankees converts to .401 on the Rockies that year. Perhaps if Jeter had played for Colorado, we’d have had the first .400 hitter since Ted Williams in 1941.
Mickey Mantle His 1957 season, where hit .365 for the Yankees translates to .450. Mantle also would have 74 home runs in 1961, not that it matters for unseating Barry Bonds if Bonds gets hold of the converter (read three tabs down, try not to vomit.)
Willie Mays Mays would hit a converted .410 for his 1958 season, with 882 home runs lifetime. He’d also hit 40 home runs and steal 40 bases three straight years and fall one home run shy of being the first 50-50 player.
Babe Ruth I mentioned this in yesterday’s post, but Ruth would hit over .400 six times playing his career on a team like the ’99 Rockies with 906 career home runs and a .386 lifetime average.
Barry Bonds I saved this one — both the best and the worst — for last. It has all the joy of watching any steroid-addled jerk triumph, but the conversion for Bonds’ 2001, 73-home-run season is too astonishing to exclude. Here’s how the year translates to the ’99 Rockies: 101 home runs, a .402 average and 200 RBI. Bonds also hits .461 in 2002.


To anyone wondering where to find the converter (I had to look around on Baseball-Reference), here’s what to do:

  1. On a player’s page, next to Standard Batting near the top, click More Stats
  2. Scroll down to Neutralized Batting
  3. Click on the drop down for year and select any of them, which will bring up a league tab. Repeat the process, which brings up a team drop down. After selecting a year, a league and a team, a player’s stats will automatically convert.

All of this is not to suggest anyone would hit .400 on the ’99 Rockies. Jackie Robinson fell just short in the converter, as did Frank Robinson, Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey Jr. (though Will Clark, Keith Hernandez and other lesser greats would have had .400 seasons.) And Ray Oyler would only hit .267 were his 1967 season converted to the ’99 Rockies, though it trounces his .175 lifetime batting average.

An open letter to Baseball-Reference and the statistical powers that be

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To whom it may concern:

On the heels of a pair of great Baseball-Reference blog posts this past week ranking the best pitchers and position players not in the Hall of Fame based on their Wins Above Replacement data, I may have created a new baseball statistic and found another way to gauge worthiness for Cooperstown.

This statistic is called Hall of Fame +/- and it measures how many future Cooperstown members a ballplayer finished ahead of in Hall of Fame voting compared to how many fellow non-inductees got more votes than them, divided by the number of years they were on the ballot. As I’ll explain momentarily, it’s a great tool for discovering forgotten players. Also, it appears many recent Veterans Committee picks have positive Hall of Fame +/- ratios so my metric could be a good way for predicting future honorees. In fact, the old-guard players and managers of the committee could care less about modern sabermetrics like WAR, so this might predict more future picks.

Baseball-Reference helped with the creation. I recently learned it’s possible through the site to view the results of Hall of Fame voting by the Baseball Writers Association of America for every year dating back to the first vote in 1936. Looking at the results of the 1983 election for a post I did in April on one-and-done Hall of Fame candidates, I noticed Gil Hodges, whose Hall of Fame credentials I’ve looked at before, got more votes than six future Cooperstown members that year but wasn’t enshrined. In fact, Hodges exhausted his 15th and final year of BBWAA eligibility in 1983 and still doesn’t have a plaque.

For each year Hodges was on the ballot, he got more votes than an average of 9.67 men who were later enshrined. Only once, in his first year of eligibility, did anyone finish ahead of him in the voting who doesn’t have a Cooperstown plaque now. So, by taking the 145 times Hodges got more votes than a future Hall of Famer, subtracting the three non-members who beat him in 1969 and dividing by the 15 times Hodges was on the ballot, we get his Hall of Fame +/- of 9.47.

I wanted to see if this was an anomaly or the norm for the 32 other men besides Hodges who’ve gone the full 15 years and failed to make the Hall of Fame with the writers since the advent of modern voting procedures in the 1960s, men like Ron Santo, Roger Maris and Tommy John. Thus, I started going through the voting records and tabulating the Hall of Fame +/- for each player.

I didn’t look at all 32 others, but the ones I saw didn’t approach Hodges’ ratio. Maris, Santo, and John all have negative Hall of Fame +/- ratios– that is, the number of non-members who got more votes than them was higher than the number of future Hall of Famers they beat out. Bill Mazeroski never finished ahead of a future Hall of Famer in his 15 years on the ballot, though the Veterans Committee later enshrined him. Other committee picks like Jim Bunning and Red Schoendienst appear to have positive ratios at quick glance, though I haven’t calculated them yet, and I’m guessing the numbers are lower than Hodges’ ratio.

I dug through old ballots to find Hodges a peer. Some may argue it’s not a valid comparison, since the older the Hall of Fame voting year, the more time that’s transpired to allow a larger number of players to be honored by the writers and Veteran’s Committee. Old ballots also sometimes teemed with more than 100 players, including active stars and managers. That’s where the ratio comes in: It means little for a player to have finished better than 50 future Hall of Famers in 1938 if that many non-members finished in front of him. My stat rewards non-members who finished consistently better than other non-members.

Hodges doesn’t have the best Hall of Fame +/- ratio among all non-inducted players. I found three with better ratios: Lefty O’Doul with 13.8, and a pair of Deadball Era catchers, Hank Gowdy with 14.59 and Johnny Kling with 13.11. Hodges also doesn’t have the record for most future Hall of Famers beaten out on one ballot, even though he bested 13 in 1970. Gowdy, who I recently wrote belongs in a starting lineup of combat veterans, got more votes than 33 future members in 1956. Kling beat out 32 in 1937 and 31 the following year, while O’Doul, an amazing player a short time in my book, got more votes than 27 in 1960. Gowdy, Kling and O’Doul weren’t bested by any non-Hall of Famers those years, either.

I hadn’t heard of Kling prior to my research, and it illuminated others like Babe Adams, Duffy Lewis, and Bucky Walters. To me, that makes this stat valuable. If for no other reason, it could help honor forgotten players. With that said, there’s another reason I’d love to see this stat added to Baseball-Reference: All I’ve done this weekend, it seems, is pore over old Hall of Fame ballots.

Anyhow, with that, I’m out.

Yours truly,

Graham Womack

(Postscript: Not everyone liked this idea.)

The Hall of Limited Fame: The Inaugural Class

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I had my first meeting on Saturday as a member of the Society for American Baseball Research and this site came up in conversation with the group. While we waited for others to arrive for our breakfast at Lefty O’Doul’s in San Francisco, I mentioned my most popular post here, The 10 best baseball players not in the Hall of Fame. Our chapter president asked if I included O’Doul, and she scoffed when I said no. I understand my words could be seen as blasphemy, especially given where we were at or the fact that we’re the Lefty O’Doul Chapter, but the man isn’t a Hall of Famer in my book.

O’Doul falls into an interesting class of ballplayers: Those men who were brilliant for short stretches. Their chances for Cooperstown are slim because, as late, great Los Angeles Times columnist Jim Murray noted in a 1978 column, “The baseball writers are sometimes loathe to reward a guy for a single, incandescent, virtuoso performance over one season. They prefer a guy who keeps doing a predictable thing over and over again. Henry Aaron, who piled up 755 home runs, 30 to 40 at a time over 20 years, will go in the hall by acclamation. Roger Maris, who hit 61 one season, more than anyone ever hit in one  season, will never make it.” And the Veteran’s Committee won’t help much either, as it does little for modern era players besides tabbing those who fell just short with the writers.

Perhaps the answer is giving O’Doul and his cohorts a Hall of Fame of their own, a place to honor men who may not have been Cooperstown-worthy their entire careers but played like it for at least a few seasons. I think this could make a great Web site, and if anyone wants to handle design, I’d be happy to write copy. The place could be called Cooperstown II, or better yet, Mini-Cooperstown. Until that comes to be, here are ten men who could be honored:

Player Claim to fame Highest percentage of Hall of Fame vote
Dom DiMaggio
Number three on my list of the ten best players not in the Hall of Fame, DiMaggio is a member of the Hitters Hall of Fame at the Ted Williams Museum and is considered one of the greatest defensive outfielders. Williams had a pamphlet for years in his museum detailing why DiMaggio deserved Hall of Fame enshrinement. His Cooperstown bid was hurt because he played just ten full seasons, missing three years to World War II.
11.3 percent (1973, 9th ballot)
Nomar Garciaparra
Looked like a sure-bet Hall of Famer his first four full seasons, culminating with his .372 year in 2000. He missed most of the next season injured, though, and was never again the same dominant player.
Not yet eligible
Dwight Gooden
Had more wins before his 25th birthday (100) than after (94) when his career fell apart. That would seem to be a dubious record of some sort, but every pitcher on this list shares that distinction.
3.3 percent (2006, 1st ballot)
Roger Maris
His lifetime numbers of 275 home runs and a .260 batting average are pedestrian, but when Maris shined, he shined bright. American League Most Valuable Player in 1960 and again in 1961 when he hit 61 home runs. He deserves enshrinement for what he endured in the latter season alone.
43.1 percent (1988, 15th ballot)
Denny McLain
Like Gooden, won more games before 25 than after. Became the first man in 34 years to win at least 30 games, with his MVP and Cy Young season in 1968. McLain won another Cy Young in 1969 but never again had a winning season thereafter, between arm troubles and rumors he associated with gamblers and underworld figures. He was gone from the majors by 29 and later went to prison on a RICO conviction.
0.7 percent (1979, 2nd ballot)
Lefty O’Doul
Struggled as a pitcher, with a 1-1 lifetime record and 4.87 ERA, bouncing out of the big leagues at 26. Resurfaced five years later as an outfielder and, short of Babe Ruth, is probably the most successful player to make this transition. .349 lifetime average, fourth-highest all-time, with 1140 hits; hit .398 in 1929, .383 in 1930 and .368 in 1932.
16.7 (1960, 9th ballot)
Riggs Stephenson
His .336 lifetime batting average is 22nd all-time, but he was a utility player most of his career and had 500 plate appearances only four times. In those seasons, though, Stephenson hit .362, .344 and .324 (twice.) The ad on his Baseball Reference page calls him, “The greatest baseball player who is NOT in the Hall of Fame!” and I wrote a post in January exploring this.
1.5 percent (1960, 3rd ballot)
Fernando Valenzuela
One word: Fernandomania. The southpaw swept into Los Angeles and the majors with his Cy Young and Rookie of the Year season in 1981 and thrived up through a 21-11 year in 1986. However, he was never as effective thereafter. Assuming he was being truthful about his age– and there has been debate on this– Valenzuela is like McLain and Gooden: He won more games before 25 than after.
6.2 percent (2003, 1st ballot)
Maury Wills
Wills didn’t reach the majors until he was 26 and did his best work his first six full seasons. He led the National League in steals each of those years and was MVP in 1962 when he stole 104 bases and broke a record set by Ty Cobb in 1915. Jim Murray wrote in the 1978 column, “Will someone please tell me why Rabbit Maranville is in the Hall of Fame and Maury Wills isn’t?”
40.6 percent (1981, 4th ballot)
Smoky Joe Wood
Went 34-5 in 1912, and as he told Lawrence Ritter years later in The Glory of Their Times, “That was it, right then and there. My arm went bad the next year and all my dreams came tumbling down around my ears like a damn house of cards. The next five years, seems like it was nothing but one long terrible nightmare.” Wood still won 117 games in his career, all before age 25. Like O’Doul and Ruth, he later played in the outfield, albeit with more modest results.
18 percent (1947, 6th ballot)


Why the baseball draft is worse than the NFL Draft or NBA Draft

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Unlike football and basketball where I eagerly await the drafts each year, study mock drafts in the weeks and months before, and try to envision who my favorite teams will select, I don’t feel the same anticipation with baseball.

I can’t remember the last time I cared to read a mock First-Year Player Draft in baseball. Where the NFL Draft is a multiple-day affair on ESPN, and the NBA Draft is known for blockbuster trades and some truly hideous fashions (it’s the sports equivalent of the red carpet at the Oscars), the baseball draft only recently started being televised, having previously been conducted via conference call. In football or basketball, a Top-10 draft choice is almost a lock to become a veteran if not a regular All Star. In baseball, No. 1 overall picks occasionally don’t make it out of the minor leagues.

I’ve briefly compared the drafts before, but with the NFL Draft a week away, I decided to go deeper. With my day off work on Friday, I spent a few hours analyzing the top ten picks of every MLB, NFL and NBA draft from 1990 through 1999. My goal? Determine how many of these picks went on to play at least five years.

Here’s what I found:

Top-10 picks from 1990-1999 who played at least five years All Stars Never played in the league
NBA 96 (out of 100 men picked) 41 0
NFL 91 (out of 100 men picked) 52 0
MLB 70 (out of 99 men picked (J.D. Drew was a Top-10 pick two years)) 28 17


There are a few reasons baseball doesn’t draft as well. Baseball tends to draft younger players, and the minors, which don’t exist to the same degree in football or basketball, can be an abyss. Football and basketball teams usually select pro-ready players who debut months later, while baseball clubs draft for potential and have no problem keeping prospects in their farm system for two or three seasons, sometimes longer. One reason I capped my analysis at 1999 is that ballplayers occasionally spend five years or more in the minors before going on to long careers.

Almost any year in the Nineties shows abysmal baseball draft results. Alex Rodriguez was the top overall pick in 1993, as he should have been. The remainder of the top ten that year reads like an independent league roster: Darren Dreifort, Brian Anderson, Wayne Gomes, Jeff Granger, Steve Soderstrom, Trot Nixon, Kirk Presley, Matt Brunson and Brooks Kieschnick. None were All Stars and two men never played in the majors; Billy Wagner, Derrek Lee, Chris Carpenter and Torii Hunter were among the next ten picks. In fact, good players often come much later. Albert Pujols was a 13th round pick his year, Matt Holliday was a 7th rounder and Ryan Howard was a 5th rounder.

In every baseball draft from 1990-1999, at least one player or two among the top ten picks never made the majors, including Brien Taylor, the No. 1 pick in the 1991 draft. In 1999, four of the top ten picks never played in the big leagues, and that number would have been five had the top pick from that year, Josh Hamilton not finally debuted in 2007 after battling drug addiction. As it stands, Hamilton won’t have five years of experience until next season.

Don’t get me wrong, the NBA and NFL drafts aren’t perfect either, far from it. I think basketball might have the worst draft lottery in sports, with the worst teams having a better chance of landing the fourth, fifth or sixth pick each year than one in the top three. In football, top draft picks often make more than established players, and teams tend to draft a player high and then trade him for a low-round pick a few years later, even if he’s performing decently. If I were a football team, I’d stockpile low-round draft picks and use them to ply proven players from guileless teams.

That being said, I still think the baseball draft sucks.

Related post: An argument in favor of the Reserve Clause

Part 2: Who would play in this new Continental League?

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In the past 50 years, Major League Baseball has almost doubled in size, going from 16 teams to 30. At 25 players a team, there are now 750 men in the league, as opposed to 400 in 1960. In September, when rosters expand, the number gets as high as 1200. With so many more uniforms to fill, it would seem talent has diluted markedly. Still, I took a long look and between Triple-A, top-level independent leagues and various international circuits there are enough ex-big league players scattered about to form an expansion league.

The last time anyone tried to form a new pro baseball circuit was 1959, when a group led by Branch Rickey announced plans for a Continental League, with teams in Atlanta, Buffalo, Dallas, Denver, Houston, Minneapolis-St. Paul, New York and Toronto. They never played a game, after the MLB announced plans to expand in a few of the markets, and today, all but Buffalo has a team. In Part 1 of this series, I looked at cities that could host a professional team. There are dozens of such cities, and I identified 12 of the best.

(For anyone who missed Part 1, go here.)

Today’s post is about identifying potential players for this new league. After spending more hours than I care to catalog on Wikipedia and various team Web sites, some in English, some not, I found over 100 ex-big leaguers in their 20s and 30s scattered between Triple-A, the independent leagues and international circuits, as well as the retired and inactive lists (and those were just the names I knew.) I should add that I find this general subject fascinating, regardless of whether we’re talking expansion leagues. A former established player grinding it out in some lower league in hopes of coming back is a great underdog story, at least to me.

The list that follows includes ex-starting players, All Stars and a past Cy Young award winner, Eric Gagne (currently playing in Canada.) The men are:

Mexico: Raul Casanova, Scott Chiasson, Jacob Cruz, Erubiel Durazo, Benji Gil, Alex Sanchez

Korea: Jose Capellan, Doug Clark, Karim Garcia, Gary Glover, Edgar Gonzalez, Brandon Knight, C.J. Nitkowski

Japan: Alex Cabrera, Jose Castillo, Casey Fossum, Seth Greisinger, Ben Kozlowski, Randy Messenger, Matt Murton, Andy Phillips, Terrmel Sledge, Jason Standridge

Taiwan: Pedro Liriano, Matt Perisho, Wilton Veras, Jerome Williams

Independent: Antonio Alfonseca, Edgardo Alfonzo, Carlos Almanzar, Lorenzo Barcelo, Larry Bigbie, Dewon Brazelton, Alberto Castillo, Juan Diaz, Ryan Drese, Carl Everett, Robert Fick, Keith Foulke, Wayne Franklin, Eric Gagne, Trey Hodges, Hideki Irabu, Jorge Julio, Jose Lima, Luis Lopez, Dustan Mohr, Sidney Ponson, Matt Riley, Felix Rodriguez, Bill Simas, Randall Simon, Jason Simontacchi, Scott Spiezio, Junior Spivey, Denny Stark, Matt Watson, Esteban Yan, Shane Youman

Minors: Eliezer Alfonzo, Luis Ayala, Josh Bard, Armando Benitez, Kris Benson, Joe Borchard, Raul Chavez, Alex Cintron, Chad Cordero, Shane Costa, Jack Cust, Lenny DiNardo, Brandon Duckworth, Chris George, Esteban German, Jay Gibbons, Brad Hennessey, Steve Holm, Paul Hoover, Kei Igawa, Jacque Jones, Brad Kilby, Jason Lane, Kameron Loe, Brandon McCarthy, Dallas McPherson, Mike MacDougal, John Mayberry Jr., Justin Miller, Damian Moss, Garrett Olson, Adam Pettyjohn, Horacio Ramirez, Cody Ransom, Michael Restovich, Clete Thomas, Joe Thurston, Josh Towers, Andy Tracy, DeWayne Wise

Not playing: Shawn Chacon, Roger Cedeno, Raul Mondesi, Tike Redman, Jose Vidro

Retired: Jose Cruz Jr., Nomar Garciaparra, Ben Grieve, Gary Knotts, Ramiro Mendoza, Matt Morris, Trot Nixon, John Rocker

Looking over the list, it’s hardly a collection of ex-superstars. I’m reminded of that scene in Major League where the new owner of the Cleveland Indians presents a list of players she intends to invite to spring training, in secret hopes of fielding the worst team in baseball so she can relocate it to Miami. Upon seeing the list, a member of her front office remarks, “I never heard of half of these guys, and the ones I do know are way past their primes.”

In reply, the Indians general manager quips, “Most of these men never had a prime.”

Still, as I said in Part 1, I think that over time, with sufficient financial backing, fan support and patience, a new league could become sustainable and competitive. And even to start, I think that 20 or so of the guys named above combined with a few blue chip prospects could form a team comparable to the Washington Nationals. It goes without saying that everything I’ve said over the past two posts would probably never legally work, for any number of different reasons, but I think it’s an interesting concept.

Part 1: Possible cities that could host teams

The Continental League: It could still happen

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In 1959, a group led by Branch Rickey announced plans for a Continental League with teams in Atlanta, Buffalo, Dallas, Denver, Houston, Minneapolis-St. Paul, New York and Toronto. Different than former rival circuits such as the American Association, Players’ League or Federal League, Rickey and his associates envisioned a complementary league. However, they folded August 2, 1960 before playing a game after the big leagues announced plans to field teams in a few of the markets.

Since then, Major League Baseball has almost doubled to 30 teams, from 16, spreading west like the Continental League proposed. What’s interesting, though, is that amidst the glut of expansion, a new baseball league could still work. Many cities besides Buffalo could accommodate a team and hundreds of ex-big leaguers in their 20s and 30s currently populate the minor leagues, independent ball and the international circuits.

Baseball could theoretically have a league at least like the XFL in football for talent and general interest. With good financial backing, fan support and patience, it could become sustainable. Here’s an idea of how it might look:

The Classic Division:

1. Brooklyn

Population: 2,465,326 (2000 US Census)

Current baseball team: Brooklyn Cyclones (Mets, Short-Season A)

Notes: Why not bring big league baseball back to Brooklyn? New York supported three baseball teams for years, and this borough boasts over 2 million people, with no professional team as of this writing (just so long as the Nets remain in New Jersey.) As a bonus, a modernized replica of Ebbets Field could be built.

2. Buffalo

Population: 292,648 (2000 US Census)

Current baseball team: Buffalo Bisons (Mets, Triple-A)

Notes: This is the only Continental League city lacking major league baseball 50 years later, perhaps because Buffalo’s population has fallen more than 50% in this time. Still, the rate of decrease is no longer as rapid, and Buffalo has the largest ballpark in the minors, Pilot Field, capable of enlarging to big league capacity.

3. Montreal

Population: 1,620,693 (2006 Canadian Census)

Current baseball team: None since 2004

Notes: I don’t think this was a bad baseball city. I just think the Expos sucked something fierce by the time they left for Washington D.C.

4. Louisville

Population: 256,231 (2000 US Census)

Current baseball team: Louisville Bats (Reds, Triple-A)

Notes: A June 2008 article from RBI Magazine says it best: birthplace of the Louisville Slugger for god sakes. Give them an MLB Team!

5. Memphis

Population: 650,100 (2000 US Census)

Current baseball team: Memphis Redbirds (Cardinals, Triple-A)

Notes: The 18th-largest city in the 2000 census, plus a geographical rival of Louisville. When the Vancouver Grizzlies moved to Memphis some years ago, they tried to rename themselves the Express, in honor of FedEx (headquartered there) but the NBA quashed it. In my league, there are no such restrictions.

6. Indianapolis

Population: 781,870 (2000 US Census)

Current baseball team: Indianapolis Indians (Pirates, Triple-A)

Notes: The third-largest city in the US without a professional baseball team, after San Jose and San Antonio, Indianapolis is a former Negro League town and between the Pacers and Colts has traditionally treated teams well.

The Territorial Division:

1. San Antonio

Population: 1,144,646 (2000 US Census)

Current baseball team: San Antonio Missions (Padres, Double-A)

Notes: This is the largest American city without a big league team. Kind of surprising it doesn’t even have a Triple-A club (or an NFL team for that matter.)

2. Sacramento

Population: 407,018 (2000 US Census)

Current baseball team: Sacramento River Cats (A’s, Triple-A)

Notes: Call me biased, since this is my hometown, but Sacramento is a great baseball city. The weather is sublime in the late spring and early fall, and the River Cats play in a jewel of a riverfront ballpark, Raley Field, which could be expanded from its current capacity of 14,000.

3. Las Vegas

Population: 478,434 (2000 US Census)

Current baseball team: Las Vegas 51s (Blue Jays, Triple-A)

Notes: This is again where my bias will show, as there’s been talk in recent years of my Sacramento Kings moving here, and I think putting a baseball team in Las Vegas could avert this. That being said, I think Sin City could well accommodate a ball club and that casinos would purchase many stadium luxury boxes for high rollers.

4. Honolulu

Population: 371,657 (2000 US Census)

Current baseball team: None since 1987

Notes: Honolulu has gorgeous weather and no professional teams currently, and modern technology eases travel there. This area is ripe for expansion and would make a perfect spot for All Star games.

5. Portland

Population: 529,121

Current baseball team: Portland Beavers (Padres, Triple-A)

Notes: Almost as large as its neighbor Seattle, Portland surprisingly only has one professional team, the Trail Blazers of the NBA.

6. Vancouver

Population: 578,041 (2006 Canadian Census)

Current baseball team: Vancouver Canadians (A’s, Short-Season A)

Notes: Vancouver is another beautiful city in the Pacific Northwest that could support a higher level of baseball than it does.

Part 2: The players

Let’s play What Ifs

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I just finished re-watching the 1999 documentary, The Life and Times of Hank Greenberg, about the Detroit Tigers Hall of Fame first baseman, when the thought occurred to look up Greenberg’s career statistics.  Greenberg is an interesting case.  Juxtaposed against our current era, where everyone except Omar Vizquel seems to rack up 500 career home runs, Greenberg made it to Cooperstown with 331 home runs, playing just 10 full seasons.

A book I have on the Hall of Fame suggests Greenberg would have added 100 home runs to his career mark if not for losing four seasons to World War II.  In fact, looking at his career averages, it is not unreasonable to assume Greenberg could have reached 500 home runs, were his career not interrupted near its prime.  This has got me thinking.

The record books today cannot be taken at absolute value.  An entire generation of players from the Thirties to the Fifties lost multiple seasons to either WWII or the Korean War.  Ted Williams served in both conflicts, losing a staggering five years of his career.  He still managed 521 career home runs.

What if players had been exempt from military service?  Here’s a rundown of things that probably would have happened:

  • Williams would have closed out his career with close to 700 home runs and well over 3,000 hits.
  • Willie Mays, who lost nearly two seasons serving during Korea, might have been the first to break Babe Ruth’s record of 714 home runs.  Mays closed out his career in 1973 with 660 home runs.  With the lost time accounted for, it would have been more like 720 homers.
  • Bob Feller would have won 300 games.
  • Warren Spahn probably would have won 400.
  • Joe DiMaggio would have reached the end of the 1951 season with around 2,800 hits as opposed to 2,214.  Perhaps this would have been motivation enough for him to keep playing for another couple years to reach 3,000 hits as opposed to retiring at 36.
  • For that matter, Joe’s brother Dom would most likely have added enough seasons to his career to merit a Hall of Fame induction.
  • World War I generally receives less attention than other major conflicts that baseball served in.  However, it’s worth noting that a number of future Hall of Fame inductees enlisted, and unlike later wars, many players saw combat.  Ty Cobb and Grover Cleveland Alexander fought, as well as the retired Christy Matthewson.  Alexander came back from the war shell-shocked and badly epileptic, nevertheless finishing his career with 373 wins.  Without the war, he likely would have been another 400 game winner.  Meanwhile, Matthewson had his lungs seared by poison gas and died just seven years later.  Cobb got off comparably light, merely missing out on getting 4,500 career hits and keeping Pete Rose from the hits record

More interesting, perhaps, would be to consider all of the players who would have gone from having All Star careers to Hall of Fame ones, with the lost time made up, but that again is material for another time.