Category Archives: by Rory Paap

The most untouchable baseball records

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Editor’s note: I’m pleased to present this article from Rory Paap, a regular contributor here. Rory writes PaapFly.com and also contributes to the Hardball Times. After reading this article, check out his recent post for THT on if Grady Sizemore can save the Cleveland Indians.

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There are quite a few baseball records that are considered untouchable. You can bucket them into three categories: streaks, single-season records, and career records. What I’d like to do here is decide which of these records is the most unbreakable, but I’d like to do it with a twist. Let’s start with career records and you’ll catch on to the twist soon enough.

There are a lot of notable career records that are difficult: Cy Young and 511 wins, Barry Bonds and seven MVP awards, Walter Johnson and 110 shutouts, Pete Rose and 4,256 base hits, Bonds again with 2,558 walks, Bonds again with 688 intentional walks, Sam Crawford with 309 triples, Cy Young with 749 complete games, Ty Cobb with a .367 lifetime batting average, Nolan Ryan’s 5,714 career strikeouts, Nolan Ryan’s seven no-hitters and Rickey Henderson with 1,406 career stolen bases.

Some of these records are unbreakable because they’re impossible, not because they are hard. For example, no player will ever again win 511 games in their career, as Cy Young did. That’s an untouchable record. But if I sit here and tell you that, is it compelling? You’re certainly entitled to your own opinion, but it’s not. Not by a long shot in my book.

Why is that? Well, it’s pretty simple. Pitchers don’t pitch nearly as many games or innings as they used to. It’s nothing like when Young pitched and that became even truer when the trend in baseball went from a four-man to a five-man rotation in the early 1970s. If a pitcher is exceptionally healthy he will make 34 starts in a season. If he was exceptionally healthy and won every start for 15 seasons, he would win 510 games. Difficult? Damn near impossible. I’m eliminating it from contention.

Walter Johnson’s 110 shutouts is an exceedingly impressive record as well, but also exceedingly undoable. With the five-man rotation, modern pitch counts, and specialized bullpens, it’s not a reachable goal. Cy’s complete games record is unfathomable.

How about Bonds’ seven MVPs? That’s difficult and there’s nothing that’s changed that would preclude a player from winning an armful of those. It’s gone off my list. Rose’s hit record stays, and I think Ichiro would have been just the man to challenge it had he not played in Japan prior to coming to the MLB. Both of Bonds’ walk records seem untouchable but each fair game to challenge. I think Sam Crawford’s triples record is challengeable too, not that anyone will ever catch him. Ty Cobb and his .367 career average is ridiculous, but I’ll leave it in. Same with Ryan’s strikeouts and no-hitters as well as Henderson’s stolen bags.

We’re off to a rousing start. But let’s speed up the pace.

There are a bunch of great streaks too: Joe Dimaggio’s 56-game hitting streak, Ted Williams’ 84 straight games reaching base, Vince Coleman stole 50 straight bags without being caught, Johnny Vander Meer’s two consecutive no-hitters, Orel Hershiser’s 59 straight scoreless innings, Carl Hubbell’s 24 straight wins, Don Drysdale’s six consecutive shutouts, Cal Ripken’s 2,632 consecutive starts, Bonds’ four consecutive MVPs, Randy Johnson’s and Greg Maddux’s four consecutive Cy Young awards, Brooks Robinson and Jim Kaat each won 16 straight Gold Glove’s and Eric Gagne once saved 84 games in a row.

It’s time to trim the fat on those. Hubbell’s 24 straight wins, while impressive, is ultimately dependant on offensive support so I’m discarding it from contention. I’m also tossing the 16 Gold Glove streak, considering the voters gave Derek Jeter one last season. I’ve never been big on popularity contests. The rest seem good to me.

In terms of single-season records, I like these best: Bonds’ 73 home runs, Bonds’ 232 walks in a season, Bonds’ 120 intentional walks in a season – maybe I should have made a Bonds category. Henderson stole 130 bases in a season and Jack Chesbro’s won 41 games.

We also have Ichiro’s 262 hits, Earl Webb’s 67 doubles, Chief Wilson’s 36 triples, Hack Wilson’s 191 RBI, Bonds’ 1,422 on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS). Matt Kilroy’s record of 520 strikeouts in a season, 1886 appears safe, but the modern record is Ryan’s 373 in 1973. How about Francisco Rodriguez’s 62 saves? Sorry, this is added to the who-gives-a-crap category. Bob Gibson’s modern record of a 1.12 ERA is very impressive.

Of these, we only need to throw out a couple: Chesbro’s 41 wins for the same reasons I junked Young’s 511 and Hubbell’s 24 consecutive as well as the Rodriguez’s 62 saves for reasons I’ve already stated. Also on the wins: even if baseball went back to a four man rotation, the pitcher would have to win every single game he pitched in order to get 41 wins. Sound reasonable? I didn’t think so.

For fun, let’s mix in some unenviable records. You’d hate to show up on this list. For single-season grounded into double plays (GIDP) we have Jim Rice with 36 – Watch out, Billy Butler is on your tail.

We also have strikeouts with the 223 that Mark Reynolds put up – he owns spots one, two and three and might eclipse them all in 2011 as he’s moving to the tougher league, and the AL East at that. How about the single-season wild pitches record? Mark Baldwin can sleep easy with 83. What, it’s not Rick Ankiel’s record?! It’s not the modern record, anyway. Juan Guzman managed a remarkable 26 in 1993. Bravo

It’s time to pick my favorites, which aren’t necessarily the toughest – I’ll pick three per category.

Career: Ryan’s 5,714 strikeouts, Henderson’s 1,406 stolen bases and… a wild card.

Three players hold the record for the most Sabermetric Triple Crowns in a career. Why have I chosen this? Because it’s awesome and I’m not much on the original Triple Crown (batting average, home runs, RBI). I’m using Fungoes’ version, i.e. the highest OBP, total bases (TB) and runs created (RC) in a season. It’s a three-way tie between Rogers Hornsby, Babe Ruth and Ted Williams. Of note is that Williams and Hornsby each won two traditional Triple Crown’s in their five Sabermetric Triple Crown seasons. They’re the only players in history with two.

To put this into context a bit, know that Bonds and Pujols were both completely dominant players in their peaks (Pujols is still technically in his) and each only have one Sabermetric Triple Crown to their name. That being said, Bonds likely would have won a few more were he not so feared; the number of walks he accumulated precluded him from reaching gaudy total base totals.

Streaks: DiMaggio’s 56-game hit streak (obviously), Williams’ underrated record of 84 straight games of reaching base and Ripken’s 2,632 consecutive starts, which still absolutely boggles my mind. Others have tried (Miguel Tejada) and failed. Regrettably, ALS cut the previous record holder’s (Lou Gehrig) streak short.

Single-season: Ichiro’s 262 hits, Bonds’ 73 home runs and Henderson’ 130 stole bases.

What are your favorite records or those you believe are most difficult to challenge?

The seven greatest seasons for pitchers since 1950

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I’m pleased to present another guest post from Rory Paap of www.PaapFly.com. Rory made his debut here on Monday with Great pennant races in San Francisco Giants history. Now, Rory expands his focus beyond one team.

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Despite 2010 being the purported “Year of the Pitcher,” no individual has distinguished himself as spectacularly as in years past. Don’t get me wrong, some of these pitchers are having outstanding seasons, they are just not historical in aggregate. Cliff Lee is having one of the best seasons ever in terms of strikeouts per walk. He was a threat to dethrone Bret Saberhagen and claim his record from 1994, but he has since relinquished his once tight grip on this feat. He’s still currently in fourth all-time at 9.83, behind Saberhagen (11) and two seasons by a chap named Jim Whitney (10 and 9.86) in 1884 and 1883.  And though I’ll be focusing on starting pitching, the Cubs’ closer Carlos Marmol is having the greatest strikeout season of all time per 9 IP at 15.94, or 134 in just 75.2 innings.

Roy Halladay is having one of his usual tremendous seasons and Felix Hernandez has been great despite his W/L record (due to the putrid, offensively challenged lineup (not) backing him). But, I’m not sure any of these guys’ cleats are going to the Coop for their efforts this season. Well, maybe Halladay’s perfect game spikes.

So, I set out to find the most outrageous seasons for a pitcher since 1950.  To do this, I went to http://baseball-reference.com and checked out the all-time leaders in WAR per season.  I went down all the way to about the top 200 because obviously a pitcher who threw 350 innings is going to rack up quite a bit more WAR, and I wanted to drill down to those great performances in a five-man rotation.  I then eliminated anything pre-1950.  I also eliminated anyone who wasn’t primarily a starting pitcher, and anyone who hadn’t thrown at least 200 innings. Lastly, I took their WAR, divided it by IP, and multiplied that by 200 innings.

My method may not be the best way, but it’s certainly a way to do this, if not a sound one. Keep in mind this eliminates some fantastic seasons by the likes of Randy Johnson, Steve Carlton, Juan Marichal and Sandy Koufax.  And interestingly, none remaining were left handed pitchers. Without further adieu, the top seven:

7) Bob Gibson, 1968 (7.82 WAR per 200 IP): It almost seems fitting we should start in the sixties, a decade filled with brilliant Hall of Fame pitchers. Gibson dominated with a 1.12 ERA, the best since 1906, and had 13 shutouts! He K’d 268 in 304.2 IP with just 62 walks (4.32 ratio) for an ERA+ of 258. He would yield just 11 HR for a rate of just .3 per 9 IP. His WHIP was just .853. You couldn’t get on, hit a dinger, or do much against Gibson that season. I guess that’s why 38 percent of his starts were shutouts.

6) Zack Greinke, 2009 (7.86): Who knew?  There was concern that Greinke might not win the Cy Young because he 1) had only 16 wins, and 2) pitched for the small market, lowly Royals. But Greinke was spectacular and did win it.  He posted a 2.16 ERA and an ERA+ of 205 in 229.1 IP. He yielded just 11 HR and K’d 242 to 51 walks (4.75 ratio).  His WHIP all said and done was an excellent 1.073.  His season was one of all around excellence in limiting the HR, not walking many and striking out more than a batter per inning. Not bad for a guy whose shortstop was Yuniesky Betancourt.

5) Pedro Martinez, 1999 (7.88): Pedro was untouchable for a time during the height of the steroid era, which is remarkable. In ’99, his ERA was 2.07 in 213.1 IP with an ERA+ of 243.  He finished with just 4 losses and 23 wins while striking out a ridiculous 313 – 13.2 per 9 IP, i.e. second best ever – to 37 walks (8.46 ratio).  What’s more, he limited opponents to just 9 total HR and had a .923 WHIP. His changeup was dazzling, his fastball electric.

4) Roger Clemens, 1990 (8.33): The Rocket is the pitching version of Bonds, another case where a no doubt HoF caliber player will perhaps be shunned from enshrinement due to alleged (and extremely likely) steroid use. There’s a great chance he was clean in ’90, and boy was he good. He went 21-6 with a 1.93 ERA, his ERA+ 213.  Through 228.1 IP, he whiffed 209 and walked just 54 (3.87 ratio).  His WHIP was 1.082 and he gave up just 7 HR – or .3 per 9 IP. Oddly, he’s the only one on this list who didn’t take home the hardware as a not nearly as good Bob Welch (27-6) obviously benefited from his Bash Brother and Rickey Henderson aided wins.

3) Greg Maddux, 1995 (8.41): What would this list be without the professor?  Maddux was brilliant often, but especially in ’95 where his back door and front door sinker flummoxed would be hitters all season long. He went 19-2 and his 209.2 innings included 181 K’s, just 23 walks and 8 HR.  His ERA+ was mesmerizing at 262 and his ERA 1.63. His 7.87 K’s per walk is one of the better ratios ever seen and when coupled with a .811 WHIP and an extreme stinginess to give up the long ball (.3 per 9 IP) – well, maybe it’s a good thing the season was strike shortened, for the hitters anyway.

2) Dwight Gooden, 1985 (8.47): Doc is one of the best examples of what could have been, and of the sadness and devastation substance abuse can bring. In ’85, he went 24-4 and finished with a 1.53 ERA and a 229 ERA+. Perhaps most amazing about his season was the fact that he was just 20 years old. Amidst his 276.2 innings of worked – yes, they handled their young pitchers a tad differently back then – he struck out 268 batters and walked 69 (3.88 ratio). Nearly a quarter of his starts were shutouts.  He relented just the 13 HR and had a WHIP of .965. He would pitch his Mets to a ring the following season.

1) Pedro Martinez, 2000 (9.31): It also seems fitting that (perhaps) the most dominant season in history belongs to the only player that appears on my list of seven twice. He’s the only pitcher to approach 9 WAR in 200 innings, and he nearly beat the second best season by an entire win.  If there was ever an example of how outrageous it is to evaluate pitchers by wins and losses, this is it.  Pedro went 18-6 despite a 1.74 ERA. How? I do not know.  What’s more, his ERA+ of 291 tells us that he was roughly three times better than the average starter in 2000. He threw 217 innings and punched out 284 (11.8 or ninth best ever), while walking just 32 (8.88 ratio or seventh best ever). He somehow gave up 17 HR despite his nasty repertoire.  Had he somehow limited those more, this season would have been even more unfathomable. Some lucky hitters must have just run into a few. His .737 WHIP is the best EVER, dating back to the 1800’s. Is he a first ballot Hall of Famer? Yes, please!

I think this group would probably have a few things to say about the 2010, so called “Year of the Pitcher.

All stats pulled http://baseball-reference.com/

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This guest post was written by Rory Paap, who founded www.PaapFly.com in 2009.

Great pennant races in San Francisco Giants history

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I’m pleased to present a guest post by Rory Paap of www.PaapFly.com. Rory emailed me after reading my interview with Joe Posnanski and offered to write something. Being a fellow Giants fan, I asked Rory to compare this year’s contenders to a few Giants playoff teams. The post is longer than what’s typically here. Rory explained to me that his writing is “Posnanski-ish, i.e. Curiously long.”

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1951  – THE GIANTS WIN THE PENNANT!

The 1951 Giants pulled off quite possibly the most stunning comeback in baseball history, coming back from 13 games behind the Brooklyn Dodgers in August and winning 50 of their final 62 games to force a three game playoff. This culminated in the greatest call in sports history, the “Shot Heard ‘Round the World,” with Bobby Thomson hitting a three-run walk-off home run off Ralph Branca to give the Giants the National League pennant.

The Giants (run differential +140 against the Dodger’s +183) were sparked that year by rookie Willie Mays (3.5 WAR), who debuted May 25 and went on to win the NL Rookie of the Year award. Giants fans will also recall Monte Irvin (6.3 WAR) – whose number was recently retired by the club – as he led the league with 121 RBI.

The Giants of today could have learned a lot from their 1951 counterparts. Wes Westrum (3.4 WAR), for example, despite hitting just .219, had an OBP of .400. This was because he drew 104 walks. Their second baseman, Ed Stanky (4.8 WAR), drew 127 walks. They had solid contributors throughout the team: AL Dark (5.2 WAR), the Scottish hero Bobby Thomson (4.8 WAR).  They also had excellent defenders in both the outfield and infield and had large contributions from starters Sal Maglie (6.1 WAR) and Larry Jansen (5.8 WAR).

Despite all the theatrics, the Giants lost the World Series in six to the New York Yankees.

1962 — JustThisClose

The 1962 season was another that had great promise but ended in disappointment.  Their lineup included McCovey, Mays (10.6 WAR) and Cepeda (3.1 WAR) to name a few.

Mays was absolutely sensational on defense (and offense) and led baseball with 49 HR. But he was also jobbed.  Somehow – and this is ludicrous – Maury Wills (6.1 WAR) won the National League Most Valuable Player award with a .720 OPS (100 OPS+, i.e. league average hitter).  This was likely because he stole 104 bags, but he wasn’t even the best player on his team. Tommy Davis had a 6.8 WAR by seasons end for the Dodgers.

The Giants had several solid contributors: Jim Davenport (5.0 WAR), Felipe Alou (5.4 WAR), and equitable pitching performances for the season: Marichal (3.6 WAR), Billy O’Dell (3.4 WAR), Jack Sanford (3.5 WAR). The Giants had the leagues best run differential at +188 versus the Dodgers’ +145, but once again needed a three game playoff to decide the pennant.

The Giants would again come out victorious but, once again, lose to the Yankees in the World Series, this time in seven.

1989 — Bay Bridge Series

The 1989 Giants will always be one to remember for Giants fans.  After the Loma Prieta earthquake struck just prior to game three of the first and only Bay Bridge series, the Giants were all but sunk, but there were so many tremendous memories along the way.

Kevin Mitchell (7.7 WAR) was NL MVP by hitting .291 (.388 OBP, .635 SLG, 1.023 OPS) and leading the league with 47 HR and 125 RBI. Will Clark (9.4 WAR) was even better, but didn’t have the gaudy power numbers. He hit .333 (.407 OBP, .546 SLG, .953 OPS) while knocking out 23 HR with 38 doubles and 9 triples. The Giants also had huge contributions from Robby Thompson (6.0 WAR).

They were built on offense with the biggest pitching contributors being Rick Reuschel (2.8 WAR) and Scott Garrelts (3.7 WAR). They took down the Padres down the stretch in a pretty weak division, as their run differential was +99 to the Padres +16. They finished a good but not great 92-70.

But, perhaps the story of the year was a guy who only pitched 13 innings. Dave Dravecky came back from a tumor in his pitching arm that was discovered the previous year to pitch the Giants to a 4-3 win over Cincinnati on August 10, 1989. It was truly inspiring. This was just 10 months after having a tumor removed along with 50% of his deltoid muscle. In his next start, his arm snapped in half on a pitch to Tim Raines – causing Dave to fall to the ground in agony – ending his career and ultimately costing him his arm. After it was remarkably broken again during the pennant clinching post game jubilation, a doctor once again discovered a mass in his arm.

2010 –Expect the Unexpected

The 2010 Giants have been very good overall, but they’ve done it in the most unexpected ways. I think the idea was to pitch brilliantly like they did in 2009, and behind their ace Tim Lincecum (2.8 WAR), but he’s only been good and not great. Matt Cain (4.1 WAR). Jonathan Sanchez (3.1 WAR), brilliant closer Brian Wilson (3.0 WAR) and in only 106 innings Madison Bumgarner (2.1 WAR) have actually been better than he.

Offensively, the idea was basically to surround Pablo Sandoval with enough offense to be considered average. They’re average, but with out-of-nowhere contributions. Andres Torres took over the CF job and posted 4.1 WAR before going down with an appendectomy. He’s done this by playing breathtaking defense and being a spark plug at the top of the lineup. Aubrey Huff (5.3 WAR) has experienced resurgence on his first winning team. He was in the MVP picture before fading of late while playing 3 positions for the Giants when he was ridiculed– by me included– for being a DH.

Burrell was dumped by the Rays and has been nothing but fantastic for the Giants with a 2.6 WAR while providing desperately needed power and patience. Management took far too long to bring up the phenom Posey, but he’s got a chance at RoY and has posted a 2.9 WAR in just 99 games. Uribe (1.6 WAR) was supposed to be a utility man, but instead has hit 22 HR while playing mostly shortstop. As for Sandoval, who was supposed to be the ballast of the lineup, he’s posted a 0.2 WAR just barely above replacement.

At the start of the weekend, the Giants had nine games to play and led the division by 1⁄2 game. Their +106 run differential is third best in the league and best in the division. They are in great position to play in October for the first time since 2003, but whether they do or don’t, don’t be surprised if something goofy happens.

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This guest post was written by Rory Paap, who founded www.PaapFly.com in 2009. For a more complete Giants pennant history, read his post Gotham to Golden Gate, Generation to Generation on his blog.

(All WAR figures come from BaseballReference.com)