Searching for the next Aubrey Huff

The November 15 issue of Sports Illustrated carried a short but interesting piece, Attention Shoppers, about how teams capitalized in 2010 signing cheap veterans like Aubrey Huff and Darren Oliver. The article speculated who the next of these players could be, offering possible candidates like free agent pitchers Frank Francisco and Aaron Harang and Cubs outfielder Kosuke Fukudome, who’s signed through 2011.

This got me thinking, and I have a few more players in mind:

Carlos Pena: After hitting .196 in 2010, Pena is unlikely to reap a large payday in Tampa Bay with teammate Carl Crawford also due to hit free agency and the Rays possibly needing all available funds to resign him. Pena, who’s a free agent, could do well to sign a Huff-esque 1-year deal in a hitters park like Texas, whose first baseman this year, Justin Smoak, didn’t hit much better. With a resurgent 2011 season, the 32-year-old Pena could score a contract next offseason to cover him the rest of his career.

Matt Murton: Is Murton the next Cecil Fielder? Like Fielder, Murton left a nondescript career stateside and became a star with the Hanshin Tigers in Japan. Fielder followed his 38-home-run, 1989 season for Hanshin by hitting 51 homers for the Detroit Tigers in 1990. Murton’s .349, 214-hit Japanese debut ought to be more than sufficient to get him a job with any number of MLB teams.

Jorge Julio: One of many ex-big league relievers currently in the independent circuit (which, I’ve noted before, is packed with veterans), I like Julio’s prospects more than Armando Benitez or Antonio Alfonseca, among others. Julio saved 36 games for the Baltimore Orioles in 2003 and was an effective middle reliever as recently as 2008, before he had delivery problems. Due to turn 32 in March, he’s young enough to rebound and spend several more years in big league bullpens.

Elijah Dukes: If Mike Williams can get a job in the NFL, his baseball equivalent deserves another shot in the MLB. Dukes is another supremely talented prospect who’s found himself out of the bigs due to personal problems. Like Williams, Dukes is 26 and could have a lot left if he gets his head straight and finds a supportive team. As it stands, the speedy outfielder is overqualified for his current environs, the independent Newark Bears.

Erubiel Durazo: Even though he’ll be 36 in 2011 and has bounced around Mexican ball in recent years, I haven’t forgotten Durazo. He was once supposed to be big in Oakland, and while he never met the hype in three injury-plagued seasons, he hit .281 in his career with 94 home runs. An AL team could seemingly do worse than to use Durazo as a pinch hitter or a DH.

Jose Guillen: For shoppers, free agent outfielder Guillen is like a week-old steak marked to bargain basement prices. Due to turn 35, coming off a .258 season with a below-average OPS+ of 98, and implicated in an HGH scandal, he’ll come cheap. There’s the chance he could recreate his power-hitting numbers of old and be the 2011 version of Vlad Guerrero. But things could also go horribly wrong.

Who else belongs here?

John Smoltz signs with… TBS? Very funny.

I remember when the Fab Four pitching staff of Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Steve Avery and John Smoltz ruled baseball in 1993.  Spearheaded by a Cy Young season from Maddux, the four went a combined 75-33, making the Atlanta Braves the first team in the 20th Century with four 15-game winners and wrecking an otherwise stellar season for my Giants.  San Francisco couldn’t have picked a worse year to go 103-59, which put them one game behind the first-place Braves in the NL West and thus kept them out of the postseason under the old format.  In a sense, the Fab Four was partially responsible for the subsequent advent of the divisional playoffs.

Avery came down injured that year at 23, a victim perhaps of overuse his first few seasons, and he was never the same thereafter.  However, Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz forged careers that will likely lead them all to the Hall of Fame, and for a time it seemed they might stay in the majors forever.  The three continued to thrive into their forties, Maddux and Glavine reaching 300 wins and Smoltz possibly only being kept from that plateau by a career-threatening injury some years before that relegated him to the bullpen for a few seasons and cost him at least 60 wins.  Age eventually caught up with each man, of course, and Maddux retired at the end of the 2008 season, while Glavine also last pitched that year before finally making his retirement official a month ago.  Now, it looks like Smoltz, the final link to a bygone era in Atlanta could be calling it quits, too.

ESPN is reporting that while the 42-year-old Smoltz has yet to file retirement papers, he is joining TBS as an announcer for the upcoming baseball season.  He sounded diffident about whether he wants to play again, telling the Associated Press today, ”I know the question comes up: Does that mean you retired? Officially no. But in my life when I make a decision about something and I say something, my whole character is to live by it. At this point I’m not officially prepared to say I’m done. But that may not mean anything to the degree that makes me play either.”

That sounds like: I wanted a job, but no one would give it to me, and I don’t know if I really care all that much, all things considered.

Judging by Smoltz’s numbers with the St. Louis Cardinals the second half of last season, including 40 strikeouts in 38 innings, I think he could probably still come out of the bullpen for a contender, reprising that brief interlude in his career when he was a lights-out closer for the Braves.  He wasn’t happy in the role and eventually returned to being a starter, before flaming out with the Boston Red Sox at the beginning of last season.  I don’t know if he was insisting on another starting role for 2010 and this made teams skittish, but whatever the case may be, I’m interested to see if Smoltz is for sure done.

This hardly seems like a Fab end for him.

One more reason I prefer baseball over football or basketball: Fewer stupid trades

I just saw news that Anquan Boldin got traded by the Arizona Cardinals to the Baltimore Ravens, and — as I guessed before clicking the storylink — he went for a few mid-round draft picks.

It never ceases to amaze me, this phenomenon in football of trading Pro Bowl-caliber players for squat.  I don’t know what gets me more, how little the Cardinals received for Boldin, a perennial 80-reception, 1000-yard receiver or the fact that a team like my 49ers probably could have gotten involved but didn’t.  Boldin would have been worth a first or second-round pick, or both from San Francisco, a team that needs a star receiver until Michael Crabtree fully matures.  It would have been like getting a Lexus at a police auction had the Niners scored Boldin.  At the very least, it would have compensated somewhat for their own past ill-fated trades of Charles Haley and Terrell Owens.

The NFL Draft has become this annual monster where seven rounds of picks are given far greater importance than they should command.  I would venture half the players never make a dent in the league, minimum, and a sixth round pick has just as much chance of succeeding as a top choice.  For every Tom Brady, there is a Ryan Leaf.  Or an Akili Smith.  Or a Tim Couch.  Or a JaMarcus Russell.  And determining who will make it and who won’t is a crapshoot.  So again, I don’t get the idea of surrendering an established player for a few lottery tickets, even if it’s true Boldin wanted out of Arizona.

Basketball has its own over-hyped draft and while I certainly admit that I love each sport’s annual selection event, look forward to it and study the mock drafts ahead of time, the big day in hoops occasionally inspires its own share of dumb trades.  I am reminded of when the Bulls jettisoned Elton Brand for a not-yet-ready-for-the-pros Tyson Chandler.  Chandler eventually developed, but it took something like six years, and by that time, he’d been sent to New Orleans in another ill-conceived move by the Bulls’ brass.

I am thankful that no one ever gets traded for draft picks in baseball, because I don’t think anyone really cares about the baseball draft; I think most people recognize that the primary function of the MLB Draft is to stock the minor leagues.  Think about it, when’s the last time anything along the following lines was uttered: The Brewers traded Prince Fielder to the Yankees today for 1st and 3rd round picks in the 2011 MLB Draft, though Milwaukee reserved the right to swap picks with the Yankees pending the outcome of their regular season. Such sentences seemingly do not exist in the baseball lexicon, common as they are in football and basketball.

About the only way draft-related trades occur in baseball is that teams are recompensed with picks after they lose players to free agency.  I like that, it seems equitable and helps small-market teams.  And I prefer baseball’s trade system to basketball, where because of convoluted salary cap rules, teams rejoice anytime they manage to shed unwanted contracts.  In baseball, those players just go to the Giants or Orioles.

Nothing minor

I generally have three favorite times of the year in baseball:

1) The non-waiver trading deadline on July 31

It happens to be my birthday and a lot of years, something big goes down on it– Randy Johnson to the Astros in 1998, Manny Ramirez to the Dodgers in 2008.  I like to think of the blockbuster deals as presents to me from Major League Baseball.

2) The winter meetings, followed by free agency

It’s less exciting than the trade deadline, as deals get leaked and then take weeks to finalize.  Still, there’s usually one or two big signings or trades per off-season.  My Giants even occasionally make a splash if there’s a player named Barry on the market or some geezer who needs a three year, $18 million contract.

3) Right now

Right now, many veterans are quietly signing minor league contracts, reporting to spring training and attempting to hook on with new teams.  The Dodgers just inked Garrett Anderson to a minor league deal and the Brewers did likewise not too long ago with another ex-All Star outfielder, Jim Edmonds.  Meanwhile, the A’s gave minor league contracts last week to two formerly decent pitchers, Brett Tomko and Jason Jennings. The odds of these players having good seasons aren’t great, though it’s a win-win for them and their teams on the chance they do succeed since there’s minimal risk.  The long odds also help make the efforts compelling.  In terms of human interest stories, little else in baseball beats this time of year, at least for me.

I love when ballplayers can’t walk away for love of the game.  I loved when Rickey Henderson went on ESPN some years ago to make a public service announcement that he was available to any team, and the Dodgers subsequently signed him.  I love when players like Henderson, Edgardo Alfonzo and Jose Offerman wind up in the independent leagues, hoping to return to the majors.  I interviewed Jose Canseco in April 2008 and asked him if he missed the game.  Canseco, 43 at the time, replied without hesitating, “Oh, absolutely. Yeah, I miss the game, love the game, wish I were still playing. Probably physically enough, to play the game, in shape. But things didn’t turn out that way.”

Baseball presents a brief, glorious time for those who get to the play, and if there’s generally a common theme among ex-players I’ve talked to over the years, it’s something near wistfulness for bygone days.  So it doesn’t surprise me that many active players do what it takes to keep the dream alive, like accepting non-guaranteed deals with humbling, low figures.

This isn’t a new concept, of course.  A New York Times article from 1992 discusses future Hall of Fame members Goose Gossage, Gary Carter and Bert Blyleven (he’ll be in Cooperstown next year) agreeing to Triple-A contracts late in their careers.  Carter was effectively done by then, though Gossage stayed with his parent team, the A’s and finished with a 2.84 ERA in 1992, while Blyleven made 24 starts that year for the Angels. More recently, Sammy Sosa rode a minor league deal with Texas into a half-decent season a few years ago.  John Jaha fared better in 1999, turning a minor league deal into a 35-home run, All Star season, as well as a $6 million contract extension.

Seasons like Jaha’s aren’t the norm, but either way, players in his situation keep me intrigued. Low-end as their deals may be, there’s nothing minor about what they’re attempting.

Willy Taveras: What was that all about?

I wanted to offer more belated thoughts on a recent baseball transaction.  The following took place over the last three months:

December 3: The A’s acquire Aaron Miles in a trade with the Colorado Rockies for Jeff Gray and two other players.  Seems alright at the time– Miles only hit .185 in limited action last year, but carries a .282 lifetime average and can play three different infield positions.  And he’s a local guy, who grew up in nearby Antioch, offering nice stories for the A’s.

February 1: Miles is traded to the Cincinnati Reds for Willy Taveras and some guy named Adam Rosales.  Makes less sense than the first trade– Taveras is an outfielder and offers little besides speed on the bases, something the A’s have never placed much emphasis on.  And they already have Rajai Davis, who hit .305 with 41 stolen bases in 2009, while Taveras managed .240 and 25 steals  Still, A’s general manager Billy Beane’s track record is good enough for one to suspend disbelief.

February 1, one hour later: Suspension lifted, so to speak; the A’s designate Taveras for assignment.

February 9: The A’s release Taveras, after he declines a Triple-A assignment.  I guess he didn’t want to see Sacramento, my hometown.

February 15: Taveras signs with the Washington Nationals.  The A’s agree to pay all but $400,000 of his $4 million salary.

Huh?

I have long championed Beane and the A’s in general, down to their marketing department, which I always thought was genius.  Still, it doesn’t sound like there’s any positive way to spin this story.  Let’s look at some possible reasons Taveras was traded for/released:

  • Result of a drinking game by A’s management
  • Taveras’s player bio was faxed over just after the trade, whereupon Beane recognized him from a recent episode of America’s Most Wanted
  • Reds GM Walt Jocketty continued his Svengali-like spell over the A’s in unloading Taveras for Miles. Jocketty is the same man who, as GM of the Cardinals stole Mark McGwire from Oakland and signed Jason Isringhausen, back when that meant something.  The A’s should have Jocketty’s picture up next to the cash register, whatever it takes for them not to do anymore business with him.
  • Miles made some threatening remarks about Beane’s family and had to go.
  • This was really a complicated, brilliant set of maneuvers by Beane to obtain Adam Rosales, in which case, well played sir.

Garko, rhymes with Darko

I was a little surprised that Ryan Garko took a $550,000, incentive-laden deal with the Seattle Mariners today, officially ending the chances the San Francisco Giants would bring him back.  Granted, Garko struggled with the Giants last season, collecting only 12 RBI in 40 games after arriving in a trade with the Cleveland Indians.  Still, he hardly fared worse than any first baseman San Francisco has used in recent memory, and his contract seems insanely cheap, even if he hits the additional half million in incentives. I’d also have loved if the Giants had taken full advantage of the marketing purposes with Garko’s name.

I’m referring, with this, to the film Garko’s name correlates with, Donnie Darko (to say nothing of Darko Milicic.)  Every time I’ve read Garko’s name, from the time the Giants picked him up last summer to now, that odd, though well-done film has flashed in my mind.  To anyone who hasn’t seen it, I won’t bother explaining besides to say it involves a six-foot bunny and a troubled, teen title character (played by Jake Gyllenhaal) who has premonitions of apocalypse.  The soundtrack introduced me to Joy Division, which would have made for wonderfully depressing walk-up music for Garko’s at-bats.  And any number of different clips from the film could have been played on the Jumbotron at AT&T Park, like when Donnie stumbles onto a golf course and meets the rabbit, who tells him the world will end in about 28 days.

I’ll admit this all probably would have been rather confusing to fans, though I personally might have had to purchase season tickets for the Giants.  I’ll extend the same possibility now to the Mariners.

On recent hot stove developments

I could have titled this post, A Winn win for New York or The Yankees are getting Randy!, but it struck me that nobody wants to read about an aging castoff from the San Francisco Giants who signed a bargain basement free agent deal to, essentially, sit on a bench in New York.  How Randy Winn is considered an upgrade over Johnny Damon is beyond me, though at $2 million, he couldn’t have come much cheaper if his agent had offered prospective teams coupons.  Then again, Winn isn’t overly terrible and it’s a minimal risk for the Yankees; therein lies the rub.

As I said, I can’t justify a full-length post on the Winn signing, though there have been enough interesting developments in the free agent world of late to allow me to cobble something together.  The Oakland A’s signed Ben Sheets to a one-year $10 million contract yesterday, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Billy Beane lands Damon.  Both of those moves could go a long way toward propelling the Athletics back into the playoffs, or at least above .500.  Additionally, the Minnesota Twins landed 39-year-old designated hitter Jim Thome, who has 564 career home runs, for $1.5 million.

If Thome is healthy in 2010, this could wind up being the deal of the off-season– think Frank Thomas in 2006.  Even Thome’s numbers for 2009 weren’t too terrible, with 23 home runs split between the White Sox and the Dodgers, who essentially benched him for the last month of the season after acquiring him at the end of August.  I would definitely sooner sign a guy like Thome than Rick Ankiel, who got twice as much from the Kansas City Royals.  I also think Thome is a safer bet among aging sluggers than fellow 39-year-old Jason Giambi, who just resigned with the Colorado Rockies for $1.75 million.

I continue to be amazed at the number of veterans going for $2 million or less per season this winter.  There are the occasional larger deals, like the $6 million the Baltimore Orioles probably didn’t need to give Miguel Tejada to secure his services.  For the most part, though, this recession is the gift that keeps on giving for baseball front offices.

A priest couldn’t help the A’s right now

When I was in high school, my friends and I used to enjoy making movies, ones that probably wouldn’t have gotten us into any film schools if we’d applied. Our best effort was a 10-minute film with a simple premise: I cannot find a woman to save my life.  The film basically revolved around my character getting rejected and beat up a lot, and my friends, who conceived the idea all thought it was very funny and realistic, despite my objections.

Anyhow, when my character finally locates a willing woman, the house we are about to enter blows up. Just prior to the explosion, I remark on the front steps, “When all this is over, I’m gonna become a priest.”

Seems like the Oakland A’s had this happen to them in real life.

Grant Desme, a 23-year-old outfield prospect and second-round draft pick in 2007 announced he’s retiring to enter the priesthood. Rob Neyer wrote a blog for ESPN on the story, noting, “Well, this wins the prize for the odd baseball news of the week.” I couldn’t agree more, and the best part of this, at least for me, is that Desme and I went to the same college, Cal Poly.  He was a few years after me, which is why I don’t have much to offer here besides my opinion, though it’s worth noting that Desme is a past Big West Player of the Year.

This is all a bummer for the A’s, as Desme put up some decent hitting numbers in the low minors and they need bats.  Still, more power to Desme, I suppose.

Vlade, Texas Ranger

The Texas Rangers scored something of a coup yesterday, signing free agent Vladimir Guerrero to a one-year deal for $5 million, plus incentives, with a $1 million option buyout for a second year.  The 2004 American League Most Valuable Player was let go by the Los Angeles Angels after an injury-riddled season in 2009.  Guerrero now gets a great chance at redemption.

In my book, Guerrero is the bargain of the off-season, and I wish the A’s would have made a move for him.  True, he is about to be 35 in Dominican years, which is like 38 in the U.S. (unless he’s being honest about his age, unlike some of his countrymen, two of whom are referenced in this post.)  Regardless,  Guerrero is a potential Hall of Famer.  Baseball Reference rates him similar, as a batter, to five Cooperstown members, plus Larry Walker, who is likely to be inducted once eligible.  If I could have any outfielder from this generation to build a team around, I’d probably take Guerrero.

Guerrero also has something to prove in 2010, and his numbers suggest he hasn’t tapered off, just that he had a down, injured year in 2009. His .295 batting average marked the first full season in his career he hit below .300.  If that is an off year for him, I can’t wait to see what he does at his new home field, where he has hit .394 lifetime according to the Associated Press.  At $6 million, Guerrero certainly seems like less of a risk than Jason Bay at $66 million or Marlin Byrd at $15 million.

It’s been an interesting off-season, with deals skewing to either extreme.  There have been the overpriced bounties for Byrd and Bay as well as the typical windfall Adrian Beltre seems to get whenever he’s on the market and the staggering $82.5 million contract John Lackey got from the Boston Red Sox. My mom likes to look at houses every weekend with one of her friends; I’m pretty sure either of them could do a more responsible job, financially, as general manager of the Red Sox than Theo Epstein.  Come to think of it, my mom might make a kickass GM.  When I was growing up, she could stretch a dollar farther than anyone I know.  That just isn’t seen in large markets in baseball anymore.

Granted, there have been many bargains among this current free agent crop.  Guerrero wasn’t even the only one the Rangers got on Saturday.  They also picked up Khalil Greene, who finished second in the 2004 National League Rookie of the Year voting.  Greene has struggled with social anxiety in recent years, but at $750,000, is a minimal risk.  A number of other teams have landed veterans with one-year deals under $2 million, including Adam Everett, Troy Glaus, Kelvim Escobar and Scott Podsednik.

Podsednik got $1.75 million from the Kansas City Royals, his reward for hitting .304 in 2009 with the Chicago White Sox, where he made $500,000.  Podsednik is like the young child on a small allowance who goes from getting $0.50 each week to $0.75.  Congratulations, Scotty.  You still don’t have enough to buy the really cool toys.

A number of other quality players remain on the open market, including pitchers like Jon Garland, Erik Bedard and Ben Sheets and position players such as Randy Winn, Miguel Tejada and Hank Blalock.  I look forward to seeing how the winter winds down.

Matt Holliday is back with the Cardinals, Andre Dawson is in the Hall of Fame and everything is right with the world… I think

A lot’s happened in baseball in the past few days.  The annual Hall of Fame vote was announced, with Andre Dawson being the sole inductee for 2010, and Matt Holliday, the biggest name on the free agent market resigned with the St. Louis Cardinals.  The part of me that likes order and tranquility has been soothed.

I feared Holliday would wind up with the New York Yankees.  I figured St. Louis was the best home for him, but New York seems to be where everyone winds up these days.  Those that can’t become Yankees become Mets.  I was 50-50 that Holliday would have a buttload of money presented before him and that he wouldn’t resist.  I don’t blame professional athletes, necessarily.  I think it’s human to feel guilty walking away from an extra $20 million.  But is there really that much of a difference between $120 million and $140 million?

To his credit, Holliday made the right decision, I think.  His reward?  $120 million over seven years along with the opportunity to hit next to Albert Pujols.  His future Hall of Fame bid just got a lot stronger.

Speaking of Cooperstown, I like the decision to induct Dawson.  His numbers seem Hall-worthy (438 home runs, 314 stolen bases and 2774 hits) and more than that, Dawson seemed like a star of his era.  ESPN is reporting that there is some debate whether Dawson will wear a Montreal Expos or Chicago Cubs hat on his plaque.  The guess here is Cubs, but that’s just a guess.

Dawson should be joined next year by Roberto Alomar and Bert Blyleven, who were each within ten votes of making it.  I’m surprised Barry Larkin only got 51% of the vote but that’s better than what a lot of eventual Hall of Famers got in their first year on the ballot.  Joe DiMaggio, for instance, received 44% of the vote in 1953, the first year after his retirement that he was on the ballot.