Month: December 2011

What he did: Cedeño may rank as one of the great “What If?” players in baseball history. Not long after Cedeño debuted with the Houston Astros in 1970, Leo Durocher declared him the next Willie Mays. And while the centerfielder had power good for 199 homers and speed that netted him 550 steals to go with a .285 batting average, he didn’t come close to reaching his Hall of Fame potential. In fact, Cedeño received just two votes out of 430 ballots in 1992, the only year he was eligible for Cooperstown with the writers. Many things hurt his cause, including: 1) A reckless temper and style of play that led to injuries and legal problems; 2) Playing his best years in the cavernous Astrodome; 3) Having his career in the 1970s and ’80s, no great time for hitters.

Era he might have thrived in: With his speed and contact, Cedeño would have appealed to Branch Rickey. Cedeño might not have had the temperament to stand in for Jackie Robinson at Rickey’s behest and stoically break baseball’s color barrier in 1947. But assuming we suspend disbelief about Cedeño’s dark skin color keeping him from the majors prior to this, he might have been a hit with Rickey’s other dynasty, the Gashouse Gang-era St. Louis Cardinals of the 1930s. And considering he’d be playing with future Veterans Committee head Frankie Frisch, who famously enshrined several of his teammates, Cedeño’s place in Cooperstown would probably be assured.

Why: The projected numbers speak for themselves. In 1972, Cedeño hit .320 with 22 home runs, 82 RBI and 55 steals, his OPS at .921, among the best ever by a Houston starter in the Astrodome years. On the 1931 Cardinals, these numbers convert to a .349 batting average, 25 home runs, 100 RBI, 62 steals and a 1.001 OPS. Cedeño might need to play right field since Pepper Martin and Chick Hafey wouldn’t be going anywhere, but otherwise, nothing would prevent Cedeño from playing a vital role on a championship team. He’d also be a young player in an offensive golden age, playing for a general manager who might help his attitude, too. That or he’d be just another one of the boys on those Cards, a fun-loving, hard-drinking club.

Are the projected numbers infallible? I doubt it. While Rickey signed players in part for foot speed and the Cardinals stole a lot of bases for their era, 114 in 1931 alone, it seems unlikely Cedeño could go for 62 steals that year. Granted, Ben Chapman led the American League with 61 steals in 1931, but it was somewhat aberrational. From the dawn of the Live Ball Era around 1920 to Luis Aparicio and Maury Wills revolutionizing the base paths 40 years later, stolen bases were a largely forgotten art in the majors. Frisch led the National League in 1931 with 28, and that’s not even the lowest total for a leader in that generation. All the same, Cedeño could have a shot at 30 steals. A 40-40 season more than a half century before Jose Canseco doesn’t even seem out of the question.

There’s also a question of whether a 21-year-old Cedeño could find a spot in St. Louis’s batting lineup. Rickey famously developed his teams through his farm system and rarely brought up young starters or kept old players around. The ’31 Cardinals exemplify this: Aside from 25-year-old shortstop Charlie Gelbert and 36-year-old third baseman Sparky Adams, every starter was in his late 20s or early 30s. Still, there were occasional exceptions, like Johnny Mize who became the Cardinals’ starting first baseman as a 23-year-old rookie in 1936. Perhaps Cedeño could follow his lead. Regardless, Cedeño would shine whenever he got his moment with those Cardinals.

Any player/Any era is a Thursday feature here that looks at how a player might have done in an era besides his own.

Others in this series: Al Simmons, Albert Pujols, Babe Ruth, Bad News Rockies, Barry Bonds, Billy Beane, Billy Martin, Bob Caruthers, Bob Feller, Bob Watson, Bobby Veach, Carl Mays, Charles Victory Faust, Chris von der Ahe, Denny McLain, Dom DiMaggio, Don Drysdale, Eddie Lopat, Elmer Flick, Frank Howard, Fritz Maisel, Gavvy Cravath, George Case, George Weiss, Harmon Killebrew, Harry Walker, Home Run Baker, Honus Wagner, Hugh Casey, Ichiro Suzuki, Jack Clark, Jack Morris, Jackie Robinson, Jim Abbott, Jimmy Wynn, Joe DiMaggio, Joe Posnanski, Johnny Antonelli, Johnny Frederick, Josh Hamilton, Ken Griffey Jr., Lefty Grove, Lefty O’Doul, Major League (1989 film), Matty Alou, Michael Jordan, Monte Irvin, Nate Colbert, Ollie Carnegie, Paul Derringer, Pedro Martinez, Pee Wee Reese, Pete Rose, Prince Fielder, Ralph Kiner, Rick Ankiel, Rickey Henderson, Roberto Clemente, Rogers Hornsby, Sam Crawford, Sam Thompson, Sandy Koufax, Satchel Paige, Shoeless Joe Jackson, Stan Musial, Ted Williams, The Meusel Brothers, Ty Cobb, Vada Pinson, Wally Bunker, Wes Ferrell, Will Clark, Willie Mays

About three weeks ago, thanks in large part to Baseball: Past and Present, I received an invitation to attend the annual Oldtimers and Active Baseball Players Association of Portland, Oregon dinner. One of the Oregon event organizers members who lived in Pittsburgh during the 1950s and had attended the game at the old Forbes Field read my blog about Vernon Law and his 18-inning masterpiece.  An exchange about the Pirates then and now ensued, an offer was extended, and before I knew it, I had booked an airline flight to Portland.

Having grown up in Los Angeles during the old Pacific Coast League’s heyday, I had a working knowledge of the Portland Beavers, one of the of the league’s original teams. But since I rooted exclusively for the Hollywood Stars and only followed their bitter cross-town rival Angels,  all I really could tell anyone about the Beavers from that era (1950-1957) is that the team consistently finished in the middle or at bottom of the pack with uninspiring records like 101-99 (1950), 92-88 (1952), 71-94 (1954) and, gasp, 60-108 (1957).

Thinking that my Portland welcome might be warmer if I had something more positive to say about the Beavers other than that they were perennial losers, I turned to my book shelf and pulled out “The Portland Beavers” by Kip Carlson and Paul Anderson.

Beavers’ history is rich indeed! Among the Beavers that would make their mark in the major leagues were such stalwarts as Luis Tiant, Lou Pinella, Satchel Paige, Rickey Henderson, Ray Fosse, Mike Shannon and Vic Raschi who, in 1947, was on loan from the New York Yankees.

Around Portland, there may still be lingering curiosity about what might have been had Raschi not been returned to the Yankees mid-season.

When Raschi reported to spring training in 1947, he was confident that based on his strong late 1946 performance he had made the Yankees’ starting rotation. But that year manager Bucky Harris inexplicably turned over the pitching coach duties to Charlie Dressen, a notoriously bad and unpopular handler of hurlers.

In Florida, Dressen limited Raschi to throwing batting practice. Just before the Yankees headed north, Raschi was ordered to report to the Beavers. Disgusted, Raschi instead went home to his wife Sally in Conesus, New York. After several calls from the Yankees threatening to banish him for life unless he went to Portland, Raschi reluctantly headed to the Northwest.

Once in Portland, Raschi met pitching mentor Jim Turner who would provide the keys to his years of pitching success with the Yankees and then the St. Louis Cardinals.

Tuner convinced Raschi that to win, he would need to pitch aggressively inside. As Raschi recalled in an interview late in his life, Turner told him:

“You have to crucify those sons of bitches, Vic. Murder them, crucify them, kill them.”

After a few weeks, Turner had so deeply instilled the mantra of “up and in” that Raschi dominated the PCL with his fearsome pitching and went 8-2 with a 2.75 ERA. By July, Turner knew that it was time for Raschi to return to the Yankees. After Turner placed a call to Yankees general manager George Weiss, Raschi was on his way back to New York. Although the Yankees were in the midst of a formidable winning streak, their pitchers’ arms were tired.

Raschi and Bobo Newsome, acquired in a trade, arrived in New York on the same day, started and won both ends of a double header against the White Sox in Chicago on the team’s way to 19 consecutive victories. Raschi ended the year with a 7-2 record, a 3.87 ERA and helped lead his team to a World Championship.

Meanwhile back in Portland, the Beavers finished 8-1/2 games behind the pennant winning Angels and 7-1/2 behind the second place Seals. Beavers’ fans, in one of those baseball questions that can never be answered, were left to wonder if Raschi would have made the difference between third and first.

Editor’s note: I’m pleased to present the latest piece from Alex Putterman, a regular contributor here.
______________________

Four weeks ago, I unveiled my all-time all-Jewish all-star team. Now, in honor of the $51.7 million bid that won the Texas Rangers the rights to negotiate with Japanese star pitcher Yu Darvish, I present the all-time all-Japanese all-star team (of players who played in the Major Leagues). The migration of Japan’s talent to the United States has been a relatively recent phenomenon, so this team lacks much of the depth the Jewish team boasted but, led by future Hall-of-Famer Ichiro Suzuki, claims some degree of star-power.

C Kenji Johjima – Johjima is actually the only Japanese-born catcher to appear in Major League Baseball (Kurt Suzuki is of Japanese descent but was born in Hawaii and is a fourth-generation American), giving him this spot on the list by default. Johjima broke into the Majors with a bang, batting .289 with 32 home runs in his first two seasons with the Seattle Mariners, before declining in productivity and returning to Japan in 2009, after a four-year career in American baseball.

1B N/A – There has never been a Japanese-born first baseman in the Major Leagues, but Nippon Professional Baseball legend Sadaharu Oh won 15 home run titles in his 22-year career playing first base for the Yomiuri Giants and owns Japan’s records for home runs in a single-season (55) and a career (868).

2B Tad Iguchi – Second base happens to be somewhat of a hotspot for Japanese players, with Iguchi, Akinori Iwamura, and Kaz Matsui all having played the majority of their MLB games there. Iguchi was the only of the trio to play exclusively at second, and so he gets this position, while Matsui and Iwamura find spots elsewhere.

3B Akinori Iwamura – Iwamura played four MLB seasons, three of them in Tampa Bay, and was the starting second baseman on the Rays’ pennant-winning 2008 team. But the infielder performed best during his rookie season, when he posted career highs in home runs, stolen bases, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS+ and WAR while playing third base.

SS Kaz Matsui – Matsui was, like Iwamura, primarily a second baseman but played shortstop as a Mets rookie (with a young Jose Reyes stationed at second). Matsui initially failed to live up to high expectations, struggling mightily during his time in New York, before reviving his career in Colorado following a 2006 trade.

LF Hideki Matsui – Probably the second most accomplished Japanese-born MLB player, Matsui has batted .285 and knocked 173 home runs in nine seasons with the Yankees, Angels and Athletics. A six-RBI performance in game six of the 2009 World Series earned him Series MVP honors, concluding a successful but somewhat injury-prone Yankee career.

RF Ichiro – The inarguable greatest Japanese Major Leaguer of all-time, Ichiro broke into the bigs with Rookie of the Year and MVP awards in his rookie season. And unlike other Japanese players who began their careers strong and then faded (see: Nomo, Matsuzaka, Fukudome, Iwamura, Johjima, Sasaki, Okajima) the Mariner outfielder built off his initial success and put together a career worthy of Cooperstown. Though his best days are behind him, Ichiro can already claim two batting titles, over 2,400 career hits, over 400 career stolen bases, and the MLB single-season hits record (262, set in 2004).

CF Kosuke Fukodome – A 3-run game-tying home run in Fukodome’s first MLB game and a .337 batting average in his first month in America made the outfielder a cult hero in Chicago, and while that level of success didn’t last long, Fukodome’s career has been a moderate success. He’s hit between .257 and .263 in each of his four MLB seasons and added above-average defense to a solid bat. Although primarily a rightfielder, Fukudome has played enough games in center (138) to warrant this position on this list.

With the dearth of Japanese position players already evident in the starting lineup, the all-time Japanese team’s bench is pathetically shallow. So Taguchi had his moments, contributing to the Cardinals’ 2006 World Series championship team. Beyond that, we don’t have much. There is no second catcher to bring off the bench, and Tsuyoshi Nishioka is the default utility infielder despite a disastrous rookie season in 2011. Outfielder Tsuyoshi Shinjo was the first Japanese-born player to play in the World Series, appearing in the 2000 Series for the Mets, but he didn’t amount to much thereafter. The only other Japanese Major League position player not yet mentioned here is Norihiro Nakamura, a third baseman, who lasted all of 17 games with the Dodgers in 2005, batting .128. On December 7, the Yankees won the rights to negotiate with infielder Hiroyuki Nakajima, who, if he signs, can round out this woefully unimpressive bench.

SP Hideo Nomo – If the Rangers come to terms with Darvish, they’ll be counting on him to surpass Nomo and assume the title of best Japanese pitcher to cross the Pacific. For now, the 1995 Rookie of the Year tops this rotation, having fooled the National League with an unconventional delivery and posted a 2.54 ERA (150 ERA+) in his first big league season, finishing 4th in Cy Young voting that year.

SP Daisuke Matsuzaka – Like Nomo, Dice-K began his career strong but has fizzled as the league has figured him out. Unlike Nomo, who peaked as a rookie, Dice-K’s sophomore season was his strongest. That year, 2008, the Red Sox righty went 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA (160 ERA+) and, like Nomo 13 years earlier, finished 4th in Cy Young voting.

SP Hiroki Kuroda – Kuroda is currently a free agent, with the Red Sox and Yankees considered among the front-runners for his services. The 36-year old has proved a reliable MLB starter, posting an ERA under 4.00 and an ERA+ over 100 in each of his four seasons stateside.

SP Tomo Ohka – Ohka quietly compiled a solid, decade-long MLB career, highlighted by an impressive 2002 campaign in which he won 13 games and finished 7th in the National League with a 3.18 ERA.

SP Masato Yoshii – Yoshii is less remembered than his contemporary Hideki Irabu (who gained his notoriety mostly by pitching poorly and being called a “Fat Toad” by George Steinbrenner), but Yoshii has a better career ERA, ERA+, WHIP, and WAR than Irabu.

Unlike the Jewish all-star team, the Japanese squad is very deep in the bullpen. Akinori Otsuka, Hideki Okajima, Takashi Saito, Koji Uehara, Shigetoshi Hasegawaand Kazuhiro Sasaki all enjoyed or continue to enjoy productive careers in the states. Honorable mention to Masanori Murakami, the first Japanese Major Leaguer, who pitched in 54 games during the 1964 and 1965 seasons before a resolution between MLB and Nippon Professional Baseball which, for 30 years, kept Japan’s best away from America.

The 2012 baseball season is approaching, if ever so slowly, and at this festive time of year there is something on everyone’s Christmas list.  This is especially true for the 30 general managers who run Major League Baseball. Some have long lists with not much money to spend, others have short lists with lots of money to spend and some have already finished their shopping. There are also three franchise problems which would be a nice Christmas gift for the respective fans this year. Here’s what should be on their lists.

Ownership situations need to be resolved. Franchise locations need to be resolved. It can’t be business as usual without a solution, a solution which, while it didn’t come in time for Christmas, might get done during the holidays or early in the New Year.

The Los Angeles Dodgers, a once storied franchise, need to find responsible ownership. It continues to be unresolved, and no doubt court cases might still be pending. Baseball needs to ensure that any new ownership is financially sound, morally focused and free from past restrictions. Commissioner Selig and former owner Frank McCourt need to step aside and let those not quite so emotionally involved find a solution which would be good for baseball and everyone involved. Los Angeles needs to be restored as a storied franchise. Let’s bury the hatchet but learn from past mistakes.

The New York Mets ownership needs to step aside finally.  Fred Wilpon doesn’t have the money or is unwilling to sell his various other financial interests to make the Mets a solid franchise again. Baseball needs to force his hand and not allow this situation to drag out any longer. While the dodgers have received most of the negative publicity while the Mets have been largely given a free ride by the press, push now has to come to shove. There must be more than qualified potential owners out there.  Let’s insist that one of them be allowed to take over this franchise. Baseball doesn’t need the distraction.

It seems that the Oakland A’s situation is moving closer to resolution. San Jose is ready and willing and some financial consideration for the San Francisco Giants to get them to drop their objections to territorial rights is likely all that is standing in the way.  GM Billy Beane has been tearing apart the A’s with his recent fire sale, (although he is getting a good return for his veterans), and not moving this franchise would negate all of his plans and further drive Oakland attendance downward. It is the obvious solution and one which would appear to have all the makings of a successful franchise. While I feel for those loyal A’s fans, they would still have a team. San Jose isn’t that far away.

Someone needs to find Prince Fielder nicely wrapped under the tree. Use the Christmas layaway plan if necessary but sign on the dotted line.  Max out those credit cards.  The Marlins, Nationals or Blue Jays have the money and have the need. Time is running out and there are not many star free agents left on the shelf. You know you’ve always wanted to own a high performance machine.  Think of how envious all your friends will be despite what they might be telling their friends. They will all be jealous, trust me.  There are approximately 24 other free agents out there, none in ultra premium category, but they all could fill a need somewhere.

The Los Angeles Angels have finished their Christmas shopping.  It appears that the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox have finished theirs. Tampa Bay needs a first baseman, The Chicago Cubs need everyone but a number one starting pitcher and teams like the Pittsburgh Pirates, Kansas City Royals, Baltimore Orioles and San Diego Padres need a lot of everything can’t attract or perhaps afford the big ticket items.  Their Christmas lists go, for the most part, unfilled.  They can’t, or won’t shop in the big stores but keep scouring the local corner stores, hoping that something good is still on the shelf, it ever was.

Major League Baseball: My advice is to wrap up any remaining shopping and relax in front of the tree with a nice glass of wine and a warm fire. Merry Christmas everyone and have a great New Year. The countdown to Spring Training will begin tomorrow.

What he did: This week’s column was prompted by Cyril Morong, perhaps the best sabermetrician I know and an economics professor at San Antonio College. For anyone who hasn’t checked it out already, Cyril’s blog is well worth a read, a rare site that combines expert quantitative analysis with good writing. Cyril emailed me recently about Deadball Era great Flick, who factored into a post Cyril did two weeks ago about the 38 players in baseball history who had 150 OPS+ or better at least seven seasons apiece. Cyril suggested I do one of these columns on Flick, and in looking at Flick’s stats and SABR bio, a few things resonated.

Flick factored into one of the most famous trades ever that didn’t happen, right up there with the proposed 1947 deal of Joe DiMaggio for Ted Williams or the 1916 trades the Yankees passed on that would’ve netted them Tris Speaker or Shoeless Joe Jackson for stolen base king Fritz Maisel. Before that in 1907, frustrated Detroit Tigers manager Hughie Jennings offered angry, young Ty Cobb to Cleveland for Elmer Flick. Cleveland countered with someone named Bunk Congalton, the deal died, and Detroit avoided major calamity: Flick developed a stomach ailment that ended his career in 1910 while Cobb played through 1926 with the Tigers. The two remained linked, with the Georgia Peach’s death in 1961 renewing interest in Flick and leading to his Hall of Fame induction in 1963.

Era he might have thrived in: With his slight build, 5’9″ and 168 pounds by generous estimate, it’s a wonder Flick fared as well as he did in the Deadball Era, hitting .313 lifetime with an OPS+ of 149. He also disliked Southern cooking and the heat on Eastern road trips and looks like a player who’d benefit being coddled in recent decades. Modern healthcare certainly might have prolonged Flick’s career. And his hard-hitting, fleet-footed style could go well in the 1980s with the Oakland A’s, an organization long appreciative of speed, power, and offensive production and willing to take risks on unconventional players. If not capable of 40 home runs and 40 steals in Oakland, Flick might at least be a 30-30 player.

Why: Never mind Flick’s 48 career home runs, a result of playing in the Deadball Era and its vast parks sometimes constructed to favor triples (Flick hit 164 lifetime.) Flick would have at least a couple hundred more homers in the Live Ball Era. I’d use the stat converter on Baseball-Reference.com to predict but one of the converter’s flaws is that it doesn’t realistically adjust Deadball Era offensive totals to modern day. Flick’s .445 lifetime slugging average hints at what might have been, though. Slugging percentage is calculated by dividing total bases by at-bats. Assuming we boost Flick’s total bases by 20 a year to account for a power boost, his slugging percentage would be .492 in the modern era. Looking at the 162-game averages of guys with similar slugging rates, I estimate Flick would hit 25-30 homers a season at his peak.

Granted, some things might be lost in the transition. Many players had gaudy stolen base totals before 1920, and it’d be interesting to see if Flick could still steal 30-40 bases a year and approach 330 lifetime. He’d be in the right place in Oakland though, as the A’s of the late ’80s stole 120-160 bases every year. Fielding looks less promising for Flick. In his own time, he struggled in the minors with an .821 fielding percentage one year, improving somewhat by the time he reached the majors. He racked up many assists thanks to the short right field dimensions of his first ballpark, the Baker Bowl in Philadelphia and the shallow positioning of outfielders back then. Today, Flick’s best lineup option might be as a designated hitter.

Whatever the case, Flick looks like an All Star at the plate alone. Whether playing most of his career at DH could get him in the Hall of Fame is another story, seeing as the best eligible DH in baseball history, Edgar Martinez is still waiting. But perhaps Flick could pave the way.

Any player/Any era is a Thursday feature here that looks at how a player might have done in an era besides his own.

Others in this series: Al Simmons, Albert Pujols, Babe Ruth, Bad News Rockies, Barry Bonds, Billy Beane, Billy Martin, Bob Caruthers, Bob Feller, Bob Watson, Bobby Veach, Carl Mays, Charles Victory Faust, Chris von der Ahe, Denny McLain, Dom DiMaggio, Don Drysdale, Eddie Lopat, Frank Howard, Fritz Maisel, Gavvy Cravath, George Case, George Weiss, Harmon Killebrew, Harry Walker, Home Run Baker, Honus Wagner, Hugh Casey, Ichiro Suzuki, Jack Clark, Jack Morris, Jackie Robinson, Jim Abbott, Jimmy Wynn, Joe DiMaggio, Joe Posnanski, Johnny Antonelli, Johnny Frederick, Josh Hamilton, Ken Griffey Jr., Lefty Grove, Lefty O’Doul, Major League (1989 film), Matty Alou, Michael Jordan, Monte Irvin, Nate Colbert, Ollie Carnegie, Paul Derringer, Pedro Martinez, Pee Wee Reese, Pete Rose, Prince Fielder, Ralph Kiner, Rick Ankiel, Rickey Henderson, Roberto Clemente, Rogers Hornsby, Sam Crawford, Sam Thompson, Sandy Koufax, Satchel Paige, Shoeless Joe Jackson, Stan Musial, Ted Williams, The Meusel Brothers, Ty Cobb, Vada Pinson, W
ally Bunker, Wes Ferrell, Will Clark, Willie Mays

Two baseball Hall of Fame inductees, Nellie Fox and Rickey Henderson had the misfortune to have been born on Christmas Day. Unfortunately for them and others who suffered the same fate, that inevitably results in fewer presents no matter how well intended friends and family may be.

While I admire Henderson’s huge talents, I could never quite warm up to his personality. I’m put off by Henderson’s illeist attitude and his insistence on playing on long after he passed his peak.

Henderson on Henderson:

“If you talk about baseball, you can’t eliminate me because I’m all over baseball… It’s the truth. Telling the truth isn’t being cocky. What do you want me to say, that I didn’t put up the numbers? That my teams didn’t win a lot of games? People don’t want me to say anything about what I’ve done. Then why don’t you say it? Because if I don’t say it and you don’t say it, nobody says it.”

But make no mistake, Henderson was a superb player who, as Bill James once said, if you could split him in two, you would have two Hall of Famers.

Fox, one of the most recognizable players of the 1950s-1960s with his huge tobacco wad and bottle bat, is more to my liking. Undersized and with less natural talent than Henderson, Fox made the most out of what he had.

The Texas Rangers won the right to negotiate with Japanese sensation Yu Darvish, submitting a record $51.7 million bid. When will Major League Baseball learn?

Scouting reports attest that Darvish throws seven different pitches, all with extraordinary skill. The hype surrounding Darvish is reminiscent of Daisuke Matsuzaka, the Red Sox bust who never came close to living up to his reputation as the savior–in-waiting for the Boston staff.  Remember the Gyro ball which through its “double spin” mechanics was going to baffle even the most fearsome American League hitters? You could buy a Dice-K DVD that explained the Gyro ball’s mysteries.