Month: November 2024

Many thanks to my friend Deron Schreck for going out today and taking a photo of John Donaldson’s grave for this post.

What ballot he’s on: 2025 Classic Baseball Era Committee ballot, to be considered Dec. 8 at the winter meetings

Previous known times he’s been a Veterans Committee or Era Committee candidate: 1 (2022) 

Highest showing as a veteran candidate: 50% from the Early Baseball Era Committee for the 2022 election

Number of times he appeared on a Baseball Writers Association of America ballot for the Hall of Fame: 0

Thoughts on his candidacy this year: I like to think I was an early adopter on John Donaldson being underrated historically. 

I wrote a post for this website back in 2010 referring to Donaldson as a great pitcher who people had likely never heard of. It was really interesting researching that article, learning about how Donaldson had amassed 363 wins that were known at that point to researchers between Negro League and semi-pro play from 1908 to 1940. It’s an incredible story and one worth preserving in one form or another in baseball’s annals.

Thing is, a lot has changed since 2010 regarding Negro League research. Landmark statistical research has helped get at least partial numbers of many Black greats onto Baseball-Reference.com. And, at least in Donaldson’s case, the numbers are pretty underwhelming. They show that Donaldson went 6-9 with a 4.14 ERA and 0.7 WAR for the Kansas City Monarchs between 1920 and 1921.

Does this mean that Donaldson’s legend is destroyed? Not necessarily. These are numbers for two known seasons out of a three-decade run. They represent a fraction of his productivity. There’s still so much about Donaldson’s story that we don’t know, just as it is with many other Black greats.

What I will say, though, is that there are a number of other Black players not in the Hall of Fame whose known numbers make me think they might deserve a spot on this ballot ahead of Donaldson. 

There’s his teammate and shortstop Dobie Moore, whose 162-game averages are a beefy 8.7 WAR, with 12 homers, 138 RBIs and a .350/.393/.524 slash line. George Scales is at a .320/.424/.509 slash and is up to 697 known hits. The fact that his career spanned 1921 to 1946 tells me there might be a whole lot more hits. Then there’s Rap Dixon – who, like Donaldson, has some very passionate supporters for his Hall of Fame case – and projects as one of the best hitters of the 1920s and ‘30s with 162-game averages of 22 homers, 132 RBIs and a .336/.415/.554 slash. And there are probably many more Negro League greats who could be noted here.

This isn’t to take too much away from Donaldson. I think I’d just prefer to consider candidates at this point whose greatness is being borne out by the latest statistical research. 

Do I think Donaldson belongs on this ballot? I want to preface this by saying that to me Donaldson belongs on a larger ballot. But on this particular eight-man ballot, there are probably many other candidates I’d prefer before him.

Do I think Donaldson gets into the Hall of Fame this year? Hard to say. Donaldson clearly had some momentum his last time out, missing by only four votes. The fact that that committee enshrined another early Black great, Bud Fowler, tells me Donaldson’s lack of stats on Baseball-Reference.com might not derail his candidacy this year. Still, I wouldn’t count on him going in.

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What ballot he’s on: 2025 Classic Baseball Era Committee ballot, to be considered Dec. 8 at the winter meetings

Previous known times he’s been a Veterans Committee or Era Committee candidate: 2 (1982 and 2022) 

Highest showing as a veteran candidate: 62.5% from the Early Baseball Era Committee for the 2022 election

Number of times he appeared on a Baseball Writers Association of America ballot for the Hall of Fame: 0

Thoughts on his candidacy this year: Vic Harris is one of the reasons I wish the Hall of Fame had its veteran voters consider all candidates in its purview each year. Harris, who is at left in the photo above and managed the Homestead Grays, fell two votes shy of induction in the Early Baseball Era Committee’s 2022 election. Had he been up for consideration again the following year, Harris might have been able to build momentum toward enshrinement. This is how it used to go, at least, in Cooperstown’s history.

Take William Hulbert, the first president of the National League in 1876. Since 2015, I’ve researched known Veterans or Era Committee candidates. Hulbert’s case is among those that have struck me. He was a Veterans Committee candidate as early as 1976, which I would suspect had something to do with the National League’s centennial that year. Hulbert’s candidacy slowly gathered steam before he began to approach enshrinement in the 1990s. He missed by a vote in 1993, came in a close second to Leo Durocher in the non-players category in 1994 and finally got in in 1995.

I’ve learned through my research that the Veterans Committee kept a permanent list of candidates. Sometimes, these types of candidates have made it in, be it Vic Willis or Joe Gordon. I’m guessing this practice is still in place with the Era committees, since all eight candidates on this year’s ballot have been up for consideration before. All the same, a lot’s changed since Harris had his near-miss with the Early Baseball Era Committee three years ago. The committee name is different, as are its years of consideration, covering all players who made their greatest contribution prior to 1980 instead of before 1950.

There are a lot of unknowns still, such as the names of who will be voting in this election. Still, I can’t say I like Harris’s odds that much, which is unfortunate. Negro League managers seem badly underrepresented in the Hall of Fame. Charles Fouche also does a good job in Harris’s SABR bio of explaining just how stellar of a candidate he is, noting that he went 754-352, won eight titles and was a solid player to boot.

“Harris was not only the greatest Negro League manager of all times, it can be argued that he may well have been the greatest manager in the history of baseball,” Fouche writes. “If Cooperstown cannot use him in its outfield, surely it can use him as a dugout strategist.”

Harris seems like he should be automatic to me in getting into the Hall of Fame. The fact that it might not happen this year says more to me about the current veterans voting practices than anything to do with his case.

Do I think Harris belongs on this ballot? Absolutely.

Do I think Harris gets into the Hall of Fame this year? Without knowing the makeup of the Era Committee this year, it’s hard to gauge what sort of odds Harris will have. That said, I’m not optimistic.

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What ballot he’s on: 2025 Classic Baseball Era Committee ballot, to be considered Dec. 8 at the winter meetings

Previous times he’s been on a Veterans Committee or Era Committee ballot: 5 (2009, 2011, 2014, 2018, 2020)

Highest showing as a veteran candidate: 37.5% from the Modern Baseball Era Committee for the 2020 election

Number of times he appeared on a Baseball Writers Association of America ballot for the Hall of Fame: 15

Highest showing on a BBWAA ballot for Cooperstown: 42.6% in his third year of eligibility in 1995. Garvey went the then-full 15 years on the ballot but lost significant traction as years went on, barely topping 20% of the vote his final time with the writers

Thoughts on his candidacy this year: When I interviewed Steve Garvey in 2016 for Sporting News, he spoke positively of his Hall of Fame case. “I think there’s a reason why I’ve been on the ballot,” Garvey told me. “Hopefully the voters will see that and give me the greatest honor of my career and put me in the Hall of Fame.”

I don’t know how much I trust Garvey’s judgment. He ran this year as the Republican nominee for one of California’s U.S. Senate seats, seeking office in a place where the GOP rarely wins statewide elected office. And while votes are still being counted as I write this, results suggest that Garvey will wind up losing to Rep. Adam Schiff by at least 15 points. It’ll likely be better than Republican Mark Meuser (a name I just learned) fared against Sen. Alex Padilla in 2022, but that’s not really saying much.

I’d be curious to see if Garvey’s political turn helps him with veteran voters for the Hall this year, particularly given what went down nationally last week. Barring that, Garvey doesn’t seem like a favorite to me on this veterans’ ballot, which also features Dick Allen, Ken Boyer, John Donaldson, Vic Harris, Tommy John, Dave Parker and Luis Tiant. I see at least four candidates here who I’d think would have better chances than Garvey.

The favorite might be Allen, who missed by one vote with the Golden Era Committee in its 2015 election and one vote with the Golden Days Era Committee in its 2022 election. I wouldn’t be stunned to see Allen just miss again with this year’s committee. Sabermetrically, Allen is a tremendous candidate, arguably among the most underrated hitters in baseball history by metrics like OPS+. Still, something seems to be holding up Allen’s candidacy, whether it’s perceived character issues or a lack of understanding about the need to adjust his raw stats for era.

Beyond Allen, Tiant just died and might garner a sympathy vote, though that’s not always a sure thing, as the long-term candidacy of Gil Hodges would attest. Parker is still living and has had health woes in recent years, but that doesn’t guarantee anything either. Outside of them, I’ve been interested to see if Jim Kaat’s induction will help John, who has a similar case built around longevity.

Statistically, the best things Garvey has going for his case is that he came close to 3,000 hits and was a 200-hit machine much of his career. His 1974 National League MVP and four Gold Glove awards as a first baseman doesn’t hurt things either. He’d be a fairly egregious selection, though, in terms of sabermetrics, with his 38 WAR in the same range as Harold Baines.

Garvey’s off-field exploits – namely fathering children with two women around the same time when he wasn’t married to either – might not help his case. I will say that one of my favorite quotes from Garvey when I talked to him about this (which for whatever reason I didn’t wind up using in my piece for Sporting News) was, “That wasn’t exactly a felony.” Again, Garvey seems like the kind of guy who will always be on his own side. And in these political times, with the right electorate at least, it just might work.

Do I think Garvey belongs on this ballot? No, there are any number of other players with better cases

Who I’d rather see in Garvey’s place on this ballot: I’ve been something of the proverbial broken record on my friend Adam Darowski’s fine podcast, “Building the Ballot” about how I see the greatest opportunity for the Hall of Fame being in honoring the many fine Black candidates from the Negro Leagues. This is because of the outstanding work in the baseball research community that has been helping the numbers of many of these players start to finally become known.

Rather than rehash Garvey’s tired case, I’d much rather see voters consider candidates like Charlie Smith, Dick Redding, Dick Lundy, Newt Allen, or Dobie Moore, just to name five – though there are probably at least a couple dozen other Negro League candidates who might deserve a plaque. Or, if the comparison needs to be made with another first baseman of Garvey’s era, Keith Hernandez is, at least sabermetrically, a vastly better choice.