Analyzing Maury Wills’ impact on baseball through stolen base opportunities

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It’s been awhile since I posted here about landing a big interview, though I scored one recently, getting to spend almost an hour on the phone with 87-year-old Los Angeles Dodgers great Maury Wills. It’s my pleasure to share the write-up, which dropped at Sports Illustrated’s website on Monday.

In the lead-up to the interview, I did a bit of research around Wills’ impact on the game, which has been a source of some debate in the baseball community. The conventional wisdom in baseball has been that Wills brought the steal back into the game in the early 1960s, when he led the league one season after another and broke Ty Cobb’s single-season record in 1962 when he swiped 104 bags.

Some researchers have questioned this, though, bringing up that Hall of Famer and Chicago White Sox shortstop Luis Aparicio might deserve the real credit, having begun to swipe more bases in the late 1950s. I’ve seen Willie Mays get some of the credit, too.

Honestly, either crediting Wills entirely or dismissing his impact has seemed an oversimplification to me. So I found another way to look at it.

Searching the ever-reliable Baseball-Reference.com, I found that stolen base opportunities are tracked for players from about 1920 on. (For anyone who wants to check it out, it’s in the Advanced Stats section for batting, listed as “Baserunning & Misc. Stats.” Here’s Wills’ section for this.) The importance of analyzing opportunities: I figured if there was a true stolen base revolution, players would be stealing at a higher percentage of their total opportunities.

I wasn’t sure how to get total opportunity numbers for every season, so I found a compromise to create two control groups. I made lists of everyone who stole at least 30 bases from 1947-61 and 1963-77. This way, I figured I’d get the 15 seasons before and the 15 seasons after Wills’ iconic 1962 season, to see how much of a shift occurred.

As a preface to what follows, I’ll note that when Wills stole 104 bases in 1962, he made 117 attempts out of a total of 348 opportunities, giving him an attempt percentage of 33.6 percentage. This might sound inconsequential or wonkish, but it was a markedly higher rate than anyone had done the 15 preceding seasons.

Here are the 20 30-stolen base seasons from 1947 through 1961, organized by attempt percentage:

Player	Year	SB	CS	Attempts	Opportunities	Attempt %
Willie Mays	1956	40	10	50	174	28.7
Luis Aparicio	1959	56	13	69	244	28.3
Willie Mays	1957	38	19	57	208	27.4
Luis Aparicio	1961	53	13	66	246	26.8
Luis Aparicio	1960	51	8	59	238	24.8
Jackie Robinson	1949	37	16	53	245	21.6
Maury Wills	1960	50	12	62	297	20.9
Sam Jethroe	1950	35	9	44	213	20.7
Bob Dillinger	1947	34	13	47	238	19.7
Richie Ashburn	1948	32	10	42	223	18.8
Sam Jethroe	1951	35	5	40	221	18.1
Bill Bruton	1954	34	13	47	264	17.8
Minnie Minoso	1951	31	10	41	233	17.6
Vada Pinson	1960	32	12	44	257	17.1
Willie Mays	1958	31	6	37	229	16.2
Jake Wood	1961	30	9	39	263	14.8
Maury Wills	1961	35	15	50	349	14.3
Dick Howser	1961	37	9	46	338	13.6
Pee Wee Reese	1952	30	5	35	290	12.1
Richie Ashburn	1958	30	12	42	435	9.7
	Totals	751	219	970	5205	18.64%

I’m struck by how rarely players stole in the ’40s and ’50s. Richie Ashburn, for instance, had by far the most opportunities of any player in this group in 1958, but wound up with just 30 steals that year because he attempted steals so infrequently. Even Wills stole at a far lower rate earlier in his career, with his 1960 and ’61 seasons in the middle of the pack here.

Things began to shift in 1962, though. I think one of the big reasons for it is that the Dodgers began to play home games that season in pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium. Wills might have had to start stealing much more out of necessity, with runs far more difficult to come by. The following year, baseball also widened its strike zone, and runs became more scarce throughout the game. I think the tighter run environment coupled with Wills’ success in 1962 might have spurred players or teams to follow his lead.

Here are the 161 30-stolen-base seasons from 1963 through 1977, organized again by attempt percentage:

Player	Year	SB	CS	Attempts	Opportunities	Attempt %
Frank Taveras	1977	70	18	88	142	62
Larry Lintz	1976	31	11	42	70	60
Maury Wills	1965	94	31	125	238	52.5
Lou Brock	1974	118	33	151	299	50.5
Cesar Cedeno	1973	56	15	71	150	47.3
Omar Moreno	1977	53	16	69	154	44.8
Lou Brock	1966	74	18	92	207	44.4
Lou Brock	1965	63	27	90	205	43.9
Cesar Cedeno	1974	57	17	74	172	43
Freddie Patek	1976	51	15	66	161	41
Lou Brock	1976	56	19	75	186	40.3
Dave Nelson	1972	51	17	68	169	40.2
Cesar Cedeno	1975	50	17	67	167	40.1
Tommy Harper	1969	73	18	91	230	39.6
Bill North	1976	75	29	104	264	39.4
Mickey Rivers	1975	70	14	84	225	37.3
Cesar Cedeno	1977	61	14	75	201	37.3
Joe Morgan	1973	67	15	82	222	36.9
Claudell Washington	1976	37	20	57	155	36.8
Bobby Bonds	1976	30	15	45	123	36.6
Bobby Bonds	1977	41	18	59	162	36.4
Luis Aparicio	1964	57	17	74	204	36.3
Cesar Cedeno	1976	58	15	73	202	36.1
Rodney Scott	1977	33	18	51	142	35.9
Davey Lopes	1976	63	10	73	205	35.6
Bert Campaneris	1965	51	19	70	198	35.4
Freddie Patek	1977	53	13	66	188	35.1
Larry Lintz	1974	50	7	57	163	35
Bill North	1974	54	26	80	230	34.8
Davey Lopes	1974	59	18	77	221	34.8
Amos Otis	1971	52	8	60	173	34.7
Bert Campaneris	1968	62	22	84	243	34.6
Lou Brock	1977	35	24	59	173	34.1
Don Buford	1966	51	22	73	215	34
Bobby Tolan	1970	57	20	77	229	33.6
Frank Taveras	1976	58	11	69	209	33
Lou Brock	1975	56	16	72	219	32.9
Lou Brock	1973	70	20	90	274	32.8
Bert Campaneris	1972	52	14	66	203	32.5
Don Baylor	1976	52	12	64	197	32.5
Enos Cabell	1977	42	22	64	198	32.3
Jose Cardenal	1965	37	15	52	163	31.9
Dave Collins	1976	32	19	51	160	31.9
Cesar Cedeno	1972	55	21	76	240	31.7
Davey Lopes	1975	77	12	89	281	31.7
Bert Campaneris	1966	52	10	62	199	31.2
Lou Brock	1972	63	18	81	260	31.2
Bert Campaneris	1967	55	16	71	228	31.1
Phil Garner	1976	35	13	48	155	31
Gene Richards	1977	56	12	68	221	30.8
Adolfo Phillips	1966	32	15	47	153	30.7
Joe Morgan	1976	60	9	69	226	30.5
Rod Carew	1976	49	22	71	234	30.3
Tommie Agee	1966	44	18	62	206	30.1
Joe Morgan	1972	58	17	75	250	30
Pat Kelly	1969	40	13	53	178	29.8
Bert Campaneris	1976	54	12	66	224	29.5
Bert Campaneris	1969	62	8	70	239	29.3
Joe Morgan	1974	58	12	70	240	29.2
Lou Brock	1967	52	18	70	243	28.8
Freddie Patek	1971	49	14	63	219	28.8
Lou Brock	1968	62	12	74	258	28.7
Bill North	1973	53	20	73	254	28.7
Jose Cruz	1977	44	23	67	237	28.3
Al Bumbry	1976	42	10	52	185	28.1
Don Baylor	1975	32	17	49	176	27.8
Ron LeFlore	1976	58	20	78	281	27.8
John Lowenstein	1974	36	17	53	192	27.6
Dave Nelson	1973	43	16	59	215	27.4
Jose Cardenal	1968	40	18	58	214	27.1
Jerry Remy	1975	34	21	55	203	27.1
Tommy Harper	1973	54	14	68	254	26.8
Joe Morgan	1975	67	10	77	287	26.8
Joe Morgan	1977	49	10	59	222	26.6
Maury Wills	1968	52	21	73	276	26.4
Maury Wills	1964	53	17	70	266	26.3
Joe Foy	1969	37	15	52	198	26.3
Don Baylor	1973	32	9	41	156	26.3
Freddie Patek	1973	36	14	50	191	26.2
Lou Brock	1964	43	18	61	236	25.8
Maury Wills	1966	38	24	62	244	25.4
Bobby Bonds	1973	43	17	60	239	25.1
Davey Lopes	1977	47	12	59	235	25.1
Jerry Remy	1977	41	17	58	232	25
Bert Campaneris	1970	42	10	52	211	24.6
Amos Otis	1975	39	11	50	203	24.6
Lou Brock	1971	64	19	83	340	24.4
Willie Randolph	1976	37	12	49	201	24.4
Willie Davis	1964	42	13	55	226	24.3
Pat Kelly	1970	34	16	50	207	24.2
Lenny Randle	1976	30	15	45	186	24.2
Lou Brock	1969	53	14	67	278	24.1
Maury Wills	1969	40	21	61	254	24
Pat Kelly	1972	32	9	41	172	23.8
Bert Campaneris	1974	34	15	49	206	23.8
Lou Brock	1970	51	15	66	278	23.7
Jerry Remy	1976	35	16	51	216	23.6
Enzo Hernandez	1974	37	10	47	202	23.3
Maury Wills	1963	40	19	59	254	23.2
Bake McBride	1977	36	7	43	186	23.1
Lenny Randle	1977	33	21	54	234	23.1
Sonny Jackson	1966	49	14	63	274	23
Joe Morgan	1969	49	14	63	274	23
Bobby Bonds	1975	30	17	47	207	22.7
Joe Morgan	1970	42	13	55	244	22.5
Claudell Washington	1975	40	15	55	245	22.4
Davey Lopes	1973	36	16	52	233	22.3
Willie Davis	1970	38	14	52	236	22
Bobby Tolan	1972	42	15	57	259	22
Freddie Patek	1975	32	7	39	179	21.8
Don Buford	1967	34	21	55	253	21.7
Cesar Tovar	1969	45	12	57	263	21.7
Bobby Bonds	1972	44	6	50	230	21.7
Mickey Rivers	1976	43	7	50	232	21.6
Mickey Rivers	1974	30	13	43	201	21.4
Freddie Patek	1972	33	7	40	188	21.3
Wilbur Howard	1975	32	11	43	203	21.2
Bobby Bonds	1974	41	11	52	246	21.1
Dave Concepcion	1975	33	6	39	185	21.1
Freddie Patek	1974	33	15	48	229	21
Willie Davis	1968	36	10	46	222	20.7
Ron LeFlore	1977	39	19	58	283	20.5
Luis Aparicio	1963	40	6	46	225	20.4
Bobby Bonds	1970	48	10	58	284	20.4
Jim Wynn	1965	43	4	47	233	20.2
Tommy Harper	1970	38	16	54	267	20.2
Dave Concepcion	1974	41	6	47	236	19.9
Bert Campaneris	1973	34	10	44	222	19.8
Bert Campaneris	1971	34	7	41	209	19.6
Larry Bowa	1974	39	11	50	256	19.5
Enos Cabell	1976	35	8	43	222	19.4
Mitchell Page	1977	42	5	47	243	19.3
Bill Buckner	1974	31	13	44	229	19.2
Dan Driessen	1977	31	13	44	230	19.1
Bobby Bonds	1969	45	4	49	258	19
Rod Carew	1973	41	16	57	301	18.9
Tommie Agee	1970	31	15	46	247	18.6
Jose Cardenal	1969	36	6	42	228	18.4
Joe Morgan	1971	40	8	48	264	18.2
Cesar Tovar	1968	35	13	48	268	17.9
Larry Hisle	1976	31	18	49	274	17.9
Phil Garner	1977	32	9	41	233	17.6
Bake McBride	1974	30	11	41	236	17.4
Jose Cardenal	1975	34	12	46	273	16.8
Ralph Garr	1973	35	11	46	276	16.7
Pepe Mangual	1975	33	11	44	268	16.4
Larry Bowa	1976	30	8	38	236	16.1
Rod Carew	1974	38	16	54	338	16
Rod Carew	1975	35	9	44	279	15.8
Sandy Alomar	1971	39	10	49	317	15.5
Roy White	1976	31	13	44	290	15.2
Horace Clarke	1969	33	13	46	306	15
Larry Bowa	1977	32	3	35	243	14.4
Sandy Alomar	1970	35	12	47	329	14.3
Ken Griffey	1976	34	11	45	314	14.3
Bill North	1975	30	12	42	296	14.2
Hank Aaron	1963	31	5	36	256	14.1
Cesar Tovar	1970	30	15	45	319	14.1
Ralph Garr	1971	30	14	44	312	14.1
Tommy Harper	1965	35	6	41	304	13.5
Amos Otis	1970	33	2	35	291	12
	Totals:	7254	2295	9549	36710	26.01%

There are other factors to consider of course, such as teams beginning to build cavernous ballparks with artificial playing surfaces in the mid-1960s and ’70s that supported a quick style of baseball.

Bottom line, though, it’s clear that a significant shift in baseball occurred following the 1962 season. To not credit Wills at least somewhat with this shift seems absurd.