What ballot he’s on: 2025 Classic Era Committee ballot, to be considered Dec. 8 at the winter meetings
Previous times he’s been on a Veterans Committee or Era Committee ballot: 5 (2009, 2011, 2014, 2018, 2020)
Highest showing as a veteran candidate: 37.5% from the Modern Baseball Era Committee for the 2020 election
Number of times he appeared on a Baseball Writers Association of America ballot for the Hall of Fame: 15
Highest showing on a BBWAA ballot for Cooperstown: 42.6% in his third year of eligibility in 1995. Garvey went the then-full 15 years on the ballot but lost significant traction as years went on, barely topping 20% of the vote his final time with the writers
Thoughts on his candidacy this year: When I interviewed Steve Garvey in 2016 for Sporting News, he spoke positively of his Hall of Fame case. “I think there’s a reason why I’ve been on the ballot,” Garvey told me. “Hopefully the voters will see that and give me the greatest honor of my career and put me in the Hall of Fame.”
I don’t know how much I trust Garvey’s judgment. He ran this year as the Republican nominee for one of California’s U.S. Senate seats, seeking office in a place where the GOP rarely wins statewide elected office. And while votes are still being counted as I write this, results suggest that Garvey will wind up losing to Rep. Adam Schiff by at least 15 points. It’ll likely be better than Republican Mark Meuser (a name I just learned) fared against Sen. Alex Padilla in 2022, but that’s not really saying much.
I’d be curious to see if Garvey’s political turn helps him with veteran voters for the Hall this year, particularly given what went down nationally last week. Barring that, Garvey doesn’t seem like a favorite to me on this veterans’ ballot, which also features Dick Allen, Ken Boyer, John Donaldson, Vic Harris, Tommy John, Dave Parker and Luis Tiant. I see at least four candidates here who I’d think would have better chances than Garvey.
The favorite might be Allen, who missed by one vote with the Golden Era Committee in its 2015 election and one vote with the Golden Days Era Committee in its 2022 election. I wouldn’t be stunned to see Allen just miss again with this year’s committee. Sabermetrically, Allen is a tremendous candidate, arguably among the most underrated hitters in baseball history by metrics like OPS+. Still, something seems to be holding up Allen’s candidacy, whether it’s perceived character issues or a lack of understanding about the need to adjust his raw stats for era.
Beyond Allen, Tiant just died and might garner a sympathy vote, though that’s not always a sure thing, as the long-term candidacy of Gil Hodges would attest. Parker is still living and has had health woes in recent years, but that doesn’t guarantee anything either. Outside of them, I’ve been interested to see if Jim Kaat’s induction will help John, who has a similar case built around longevity.
Statistically, the best things Garvey has going for his case is that he came close to 3,000 hits and was a 200-hit machine much of his career. His 1974 National League MVP and four Gold Glove awards as a first baseman doesn’t hurt things either. He’d be a fairly egregious selection, though, in terms of sabermetrics, with his 38 WAR in the same range as Harold Baines.
Garvey’s off-field exploits – namely fathering children with two women around the same time when he wasn’t married to either – might not help his case. I will say that one of my favorite quotes from Garvey when I talked to him about this (which for whatever reason I didn’t wind up using in my piece for Sporting News) was, “That wasn’t exactly a felony.” Again, Garvey seems like the kind of guy who will always be on his own side. And in these political times, with the right electorate at least, it just might work.
Do I think Garvey belongs on this ballot? No, there are any number of other players with better cases
Who I’d rather see in Garvey’s place on this ballot: I’ve been something of the proverbial broken record on my friend Adam Darowski’s fine podcast, “Building the Ballot” about how I see the greatest opportunity for the Hall of Fame being in honoring the many fine Black candidates from the Negro Leagues. This is because of the outstanding work in the baseball research community that has been helping the numbers of many of these players start to finally become known.
Rather than rehash Garvey’s tired case, I’d much rather see voters consider candidates like Charlie Smith, Dick Redding, Dick Lundy, Newt Allen, or Dobie Moore, just to name five – though there are probably at least a couple dozen other Negro League candidates who might deserve a plaque. Or, if the comparison needs to be made with another first baseman of Garvey’s era, Keith Hernandez is, at least sabermetrically, a vastly better choice.