Author: baseballpastandpresent

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Guest post: Bill Deane’s third annual Hall of Fame forecast

Editor’s note: For the third consecutive year, I’m honored to feature Hall of Fame predictions from Bill Deane, former senior research associate at Cooperstown. Historically, Bill has been highly accurate, nearly calling the ballot in 2013. He finally stumbled a bit last year, though it was an unusual election, one that could have thrown even the most experienced of Hall forecasters for a loop. In a post-mortem, Bill vowed to return, and I’m glad he’s done so. I’m curious to see how Bill’s predictions, compiled in November, fare this year. He has a place at this website as long as he wants it.

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I’ve been predicting Baseball Hall of Fame elections for 34 years now, with an 80% success rate (51-13) in guessing who would or would not make it among candidates receiving between 65-85% of the vote. If there has been one thing predictable about Hall voters, it is how many names each one will check. Though they are permitted ten selections apiece, the typical voter uses considerably fewer than that: six, to be exact. For 27 straight years, 1987-2013, the average number of votes per voter was more than five, but less than seven. Now, that’s consistency.

Then came 2014: the average leaped up to 8.39, some 40% above average. That shattered my crystal baseball, leading to my worst forecast ever. Yes, there was a bumper crop of newcomers on the 2014 ballot, including Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and Frank Thomas, but that’s not the first time that was the case. In 1999, for example, ballot rookies Nolan Ryan, George Brett, Robin Yount, and Carlton Fisk joined holdovers Tony Perez, Gary Carter, Jim Rice, Bruce Sutter, and Bert Blyleven, among others, on the slate – yet writers used an average of just 6.74 votes per ballot.

So the question for me is, was the 2014 voting a fluke, or the start of a new trend? I believe the average will remain well above the 1987-2013 standard, but below the 2014 level – I’m guessing about 7.7 votes per voter in 2015. That should allow for two more Cooperstown inductees.

A review of the voting process: Members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA) do the voting. Late each fall, ballots are distributed to active and retired beat-writers who have been BBWAA members for ten years or more. The ballots, which are to be returned by the end of the year, list candidates in alphabetical order, instructing voters to choose up to ten players. Eligible candidates include men who played in at least ten seasons in the majors, the last of which was not less than five nor more than 15 (reduced from 20 this year) years prior to the election. Any candidate being named on at least 75% of the ballots is elected to the Hall; anyone receiving less than 5% of the vote is dropped from further consideration. The BBWAA honors an average of about two players per year. The 2015 results will be announced on January 6 at 2 PM EST.

More than half of the 35 players who were listed on the 2014 ballot are not on the 2015 version: Maddux, Glavine, and Thomas, who were elected; Jack Morris, who failed in his final attempt; and 14 others (Rafael Palmeiro, Moises Alou, Hideo Nomo, Luis Gonzalez, Eric Gagne, J. T. Snow, Armando Benitez, Jacques Jones, Kenny Rogers, Sean Casey, Ray Durham, Todd Jones, Paul LoDuca, and Richie Sexson) who were dropped for failing to reach the 5%-cutoff. These men collected a whopping 1,958 votes in 2014, which conceivably could be redistributed to the new and returning candidates this year. The solid 2015 rookie class – led by three pitchers who combined for nine Cy Young Awards – figures to get the bulk of those, but the 17 returnees are likely to move up in the voting.

Most first-time eligibles are destined for just one try on the writers’ ballot, the consequence of receiving less than 5% of the vote. These include Rich Aurilia (186 homers, .275 average), Aaron Boone (126 HR, .263, plus the 2003 AL pennant-winning homer), Tony Clark (251 HR, .262), Carlos Delgado (473 HR, including four in a game, 1512 RBI, .546 slugging percentage), Jermaine Dye (325 HR, .274, plus a Gold Glove and the 2005 World Series MVP), Darin Erstad (124 HR, .282, and a monster 2000 season, in which he amassed 240 hits and became the first leadoff man ever to knock in 100 runs) , Cliff Floyd (233 HR, .278), Nomar Garciaparra (1997 AL Rookie of the Year Award and two batting titles en route to a .313 career average), Brian Giles (287 HR, .291), Tom Gordon (138-126, 158 saves), Eddie Guardado (187 saves), Troy Percival (358 saves), and Jason Schmidt (130-96, ERA title). Though many of these will get votes, only Delgado, Garciaparra, Percival, Giles, and Dye have even outside chances of making the cut.

Here’s the way I foresee the rest of the election shaping up, with newcomers in bold and predicted percentages in parentheses:
Randy Johnson (94) – A late bloomer who won five Cy Young Awards after his 32nd birthday, The Big Unit finished with a 303-166 won-lost record, 4875 strikeouts (second behind only Nolan Ryan), four ERA titles, a perfect game, and a 20-K performance. Making it easily on his first try, Johnson will stand tall in Cooperstown.

Craig Biggio (79) – An excellent but not dominant player who amassed 3060 hits, 1844 runs, 668 doubles, and 414 stolen bases. He missed election by just two votes in 2014, and should get over the hump on his third try.

Mike Piazza (69) – The best offensive catcher of all time (419 homers, .308 average), Piazza managed to survive steroids rumors and a poor defensive reputation. He’ll get near the doorstep of election this year but fall a bit short.

Jeff Bagwell (60) – Batted .297 with 449 homers and 1529 RBI in just 15 seasons, winning the 1994 NL MVP Award.

Pedro Martinez (57) – Finished 219-100 with 3154 strikeouts against just 760 walks, winning five ERA crowns and three Cy Young Awards.

Tim Raines (52) – Rock was an outstanding player whose credentials (including an 808-146 stolen base record) are starting to be appreciated by voters.

John Smoltz (46) – Despite a modest 213-155 career record and credentials very similar to two-time also-ran Curt Schilling, Smoltzie is getting a lot of buzz as a “future Hall of Famer,” with many expecting him to go in on his first try. I see him making a strong showing, but far short of election. Smoltz had 3084 strikeouts, 154 saves, the 1996 NL Cy Young Award, and a 15-4 record in post-season play.

Roger Clemens (38) – The most-accomplished pitcher of the past century, if not any century, Clemens won a record seven Cy Young Awards and seven ERA crowns while going 354-184 with 4672 strikeouts. His reputation has been skewered by well-documented accusations of steroids and HGH use, though he was acquitted of perjury on the subject.

Barry Bonds (38) – The most accomplished non-pitcher with the possible exception of Babe Ruth, Bonds won a record seven MVP Awards and set all-time marks for career homers (762, including a record 73 in 2001) and walks (2558, a record 668 of them intentional). For good measure, he added 514 stolen bases and eight Gold Glove Awards. But, like Clemens, accusations of his using performance enhancers in the second half of his career, along with his surly relationship with the media, will keep him out of Cooperstown for the foreseeable future.

Curt Schilling (36) – His won-lost record (216-146) is modest by Hall of Fame standards, but he had three second-place Cy Young Award finishes and 3116 strikeouts with a record 4.38 SO:BB ratio. Moreover, he starred for three different World Series teams, the 1993 Phillies, the 2001 D’backs (for whom he shared Series MVP honors), and the 2004 Red Sox (for whom he authored the gutsy “bloody sock” performance).

Lee Smith (32) – Lost his all-time saves record (and his only persuasive Hall of Fame argument) in 2006 to Trevor Hoffman, who in turn lost it to Mariano Rivera in 2011.

Edgar Martinez (28) – Though he didn’t become a big league regular until he was 27, the DH wound up with 2247 hits, 514 doubles, 309 homers, and a .312 average.

Mike Mussina (27) – Moose went 20-9 in his final season to finish at 270-153. Since the current pitching distance was established in 1893, only 12 pitchers have more wins over .500, and just three have a higher career strikeout-to-walk ratio. Mussina made a respectable 20% showing in his first try in 2014.

Alan Trammell (25) – A fine shortstop, overshadowed throughout his career by Cal Ripken and Robin Yount.

Jeff Kent (17) – Kent set the record for most career home runs by a second baseman and won the 2000 NL MVP Award. He finished with 377 homers and a .290 average, and received a decent 15% of the votes in his first attempt.

Fred McGriff (14) – Crime Dog had 493 home runs and 1550 RBI, winning homer titles in each league.

Mark McGwire (13) – Had 583 home runs, a .588 slugging average, and the highest homer percentage of all time, but became the voters’ poster boy for players accused of using PEs. With the new rule cutting eligibility from 15 to ten years, this is Big Mac’s next-to-last try.

Larry Walker (12) – Hit 383 homers and batted .313, winning three batting titles and the 1997 NL MVP Award, though most of his damage was done a mile above sea level.

Don Mattingly (11) – After a half-dozen years as one of the game’s most productive hitters, Mattingly was reduced to mediocrity by back problems. Still, he wound up with credentials eerily similar to 2001 first-ballot inductee Kirby Puckett’s. Mattingly received 28% that same year, but has gone steadily downhill since then; this is his last try on the BBWAA ballot.

Sammy Sosa (8) – Slammed 609 home runs, including three 60-homer seasons and an MVP Award, in a career also tainted by performance-enhancer accusations.

Gary Sheffield (5) – Blasted 509 homers with 1676 RBI and a batting crown. But as an admitted steroids user, he’ll be lucky to make the 5% cut.

Looking ahead toward upcoming elections, in 2016 the leading newcomers will be Ken Griffey, Jr., Trevor Hoffman, and Billy Wagner. The following year, Manny Ramirez, Ivan Rodriguez, and Vlad Guerrero will top the rookie list. The 2018 ballot will include Jim Thome, Chipper Jones, Omar Vizquel, Johnny Damon, and Jamie Moyer.

Mariano Rivera, Roy Halladay, Andy Pettitte, and Todd Helton are among those who will become eligible in 2019. And any ten-year veteran who played in 2014, but does not return next season – Derek Jeter, Paul Konerko, Bobby Abreu, and Adam Dunn, to name four – will join the 2020 ballot.

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Guest post: This Chet Was A Lemon In Name Only

Editor’s note: I’m honored to feature a guest post from Cyril Morong. An economics professor at San Antonio College and a sabermetrician, Cyril runs the superb Cybermetrics baseball blog. Today, he focuses on an eternally underrated ballplayer.

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Chet Lemon, centerfielder for the White Sox in the late 1970s and for the Tigers in the 1980s, is one of the most underrated players of all time.

But underrated by whom and by how much? I recently tried to estimate this. More on that later. The baseball writers, by voting for Most Valuable Player and for the Hall of Fame, create a rating for players. And this shows us how poorly Lemon was rated.

He has the highest career Wins Above Replacement of any position player to never get any votes for MVP. Dan Hirsch compiled these numbers. Here are the top five:

  • Chet Lemon 55.3
  • Jason Kendall 41.5
  • Ron Fairly 35.2
  • Frank White 34.7
  • Jeff Cirillo 34.4

Lemon has a pretty big lead of the next player, Kendall. This is despite four top 10 finishes in WAR including 1984, when his Tigers came in first place in the AL East.

To see the explanation of my work on estimating “underratedness” by correlating career MVP shares with career WAR, go here.

I ranked players by how far above or below the trend they were. If a player got more MVP shares than his WAR predicted, he was considered overrated. If he got less, he was underrated. To see the complete list, go here.

Lemon is the 13th most underrated player out of 810 going back to 1931 when the baseball writers first had their MVP award. That is, his actual MVP shares were much lower than expected, given the overall voting patterns.

He is 142nd all-time in career WAR among position players and he received just one vote for the Hall of Fame in 1996. That gave him less than 5 percent in his first year of eligibility, so he dropped off the ballot after that.

I also compared WAR to first year Hall of Fame vote percentage for all position players since 1966. Before 1960, players sometimes received votes while they were still playing or before they had been retired for five years. For players who retired after 1960, this generally was not a problem. Further explanation of this research can be found here.

Lemon was the 26th most underrated out of 430 players. Again, I ranked players by how far above or below the trend they were. Lemon’s vote percentage was far below what we would expect given the relationship that it has with WAR. . To see the complete list, go here.

So in both MVP voting and Hall of Fame voting, Lemon did very poorly for a player of his caliber. I have not done much prior analysis of MVP voting, but I have so for the Hall of Fame. Lemon’s poor showing there is not a big surprise.

My research indicates that milestones like 3,000 hits and 500 HRs matter along with all-star appearances and Gold Glove awards (there are other factors, too.)

Lemon won no Gold Glove awards (despite finishing in the top 10 in defensive WAR three times) and was only named to the all-star team 3 times. According to Lemon’s SABR biography, his career was cut short by a blood disorder, polycythemia vera.

So he was done at age 35. He still played in 1,988 games. But he did not even reach 2,000 hits. He had a good OBP for his era, .355. The league average was.328. Back then, however, OBP was not widely seen as being important.

He also got a good bit of that OBP from getting hit by 151 pitches. He led the league four times and was in the top 5 five other times. Not counting his HBPs, his OBP was .342. Still good for his era, but not something MVP voters would notice. And voters probably did not get wowed by HBPs.

He had good power, hitting 215 HRs and 396 2Bs. The average player would have had 177 & 315. Voters back then probably were not aware of how valuable it was to be well above average in both power and getting on base. His solid but unimpressive .273 career batting average probably did not impress many. He also only stole 58 bases in his career.

Lemon is one of only five outfielders to record 500+ putouts in a season (along with Taylor Douthit, Richie Ashburn, Dwayne Murphy and Dom DiMaggio). Lemon finished in the top 5 in OF putouts 7 times.

It seems like at least one writer should have noticed him catching all those balls, getting on base frequently and hitting for power for some pretty good teams. When he first came to the White Sox in a trade at the end of the 1975 season at the age of 20, he played 3B. I remember seeing an enthusiastic, hustling player who would add a spark to the White Sox. He seemed like a fan favorite. One banner often held up in the stands of old Comiskey Park in Chicago said “Chet’s no lemon.”

Too bad some voters didn’t see it that way. Lemon clearly deserves more recognition that he got.

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Guest post: 2014 Hall of Fame forecast post-mortem

When I was in high school, there were a couple of local amateur meteorologists who claimed to have developed a system of predicting major snowstorms weeks in advance.  They supposedly got seven correct in a row in virtual anonymity.  So they landed a front-page newspaper article in the Poughkeepsie Journal, touting their success record, and predicting the next big blizzard: January 26, 1975.  People circled their calendars and buzzed about it for weeks.

Then January 26 came, and it was 52° and rainy.  As far as I know, that was the last anyone heard of the two meteorologists.

I thought of this many times as my Hall of Fame forecast reached print here last month, and went more-or-less viral.  I’d been doing the forecasts for over 30 years – often in national publications like Baseball Digest, Sports Collectors Digest, and Sporting News – but usually just among a cult following of colleagues.  I had a terrific track record, but I’d never gotten anything close to this much attention.  Now here I was, being quoted by notable journalists around the country, and doing radio and TV interviews.  I worried that this would be the year my forecast tanked.

And, unfortunately, I was right (about being wrong).  My 2014 Hall of Fame election forecast was my worst ever.

As you know, I predicted that only Greg Maddux would make it to Cooperstown this year, while everyone else was saying there would be three to five inductees.  Everyone else was right and I was wrong.  Maddux of course made it, but so did Tom Glavine and Frank Thomas, and Craig Biggio just missed.  There have been years I guessed wrong on one inductee, but never two, and never by as much as I missed on Glavine: I predicted 66%, he got 92%.  That’s plain ugly.

So, what went wrong?  And should I just go the way of the two weathermen?

First of all, other than Glavine, Thomas (predicted 63%, actual 83%), Biggio (61-75), and Mike Mussina (7-20), my forecast was quite accurate.  But that’s kinda like saying, except for the four games they lost, the Cardinals did well in the 2013 World Series.

Part of it was timing.  I write my forecasts in October, three months before the announcement.  When Bobby Cox was elected by the Veterans’ Committee in December, that no doubt gave Glavine a boost.  Writers liked the idea of inducting three long-time Braves – Cox, Maddux, and Glavine – together.  Then, my article was published in mid-December, about half-way through the balloting process.  It’s possible it influenced some voters to use more of their voting slots.

Whatever the reason, the writers used an average of 8.39 votes per ballot this year.  That’s after not going above 6.87 since 1986, even in years there was a big crop of worthy candidates.  In 1999, for example, newcomers Nolan Ryan, George Brett, Robin Yount, and Carlton Fisk joined holdovers Tony Perez, Gary Carter, Jim Rice, Bruce Sutter, and Bert Blyleven, among others, on the slate – yet writers used an average of just 6.74 votes per ballot.

So I didn’t foresee this year’s 8.39, and I don’t see how anyone else could, either (though apparently everyone else did).  I projected 7.5, which I thought was going out on a limb.  If I knew it was going to reach 8.39, I probably would have predicted both Glavine and Thomas to make it, though not with the lofty percentages they actually received.

The bottom line is, I struck out this year.  But that won’t stop me from getting back in the batters’ box this fall, hopefully having learned from my mistakes.  I can only hope you’ll still be interested in reading it.

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Editor’s note: I was elated to have Bill’s predictions exclusive to this website for a second straight year and I expected they would get some attention. I never expected this much. Per Google Analytics, more than 13,000 people visited Bill’s post, spending an average of four minutes, 55 seconds on it; and those are just the people who clicked through from the myriad of prominent websites Bill was mentioned on. Rather than list all of these websites here, one after the other, check out these search results. It was unreal.

I will say two things. First, based on the amount of traffic and the wealth of respected sites that took interest, as well as the timing of Bill’s post two weeks before Hall of Fame voting closed, I imagine it skewed results. Polemical as I can sometimes be, I’m not wild about this. I know from talking to Bill that it wasn’t his intent. That said, it was my decision to publish Bill’s post when I did, and I take full responsibility for any effect on voting it may have had.

Bill has a place at this website as long as he wants. He’s a good writer and has a research background that’s perfectly in-line for what we try to do here. Should Bill choose to return next year, we’ll publish his predictions after voting closes, which is generally about a week before results come out. I believe Bill’s 30-year track record of generally being spot-on in his predictions speaks for itself and that his methodology for making picks is solid. I consider this year aberrational and believe that next year, Bill’s predictions will be back on course.

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Guest post: The 2014 Hall of Fame election forecast

Editor’s note: I’m pleased to welcome Bill Deane back to the site. The former senior research associate at the Hall of Fame, Bill’s made a science of predicting voting results for more than 30 years. As a commenter noted, most of Bill’s predictions last year were close to dead-on. Once again, I’m proud to have Bill’s predictions exclusive to this website.

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In 2013, for only the second time since 1971, the baseball writers failed to select anyone for enshrinement into the Hall of Fame.  Most observers think this was an aberration, and that there may be as many as five people elected to the Hall in 2014, with plenty more to follow.  After all, Craig Biggio and Jack Morris were each just 7% short of making it last time, Jeff Bagwell and Mike Piazza were not far behind, and newcomers Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and Frank Thomas should be shoo-ins.

Yet, according to my crystal baseball, 2013 was the start of a clear trend on the writers’ ballot, and only one of these stars will make it to Cooperstown in ’14.

This is my 33rd year predicting Hall of Fame elections.  I think the acid test of prognostication performance lies in guessing the fate of men who finish within 10% either way of being elected (i.e., who receive between 65-85% of the vote).  Among such candidates, I have gone 50-12 (.806) in correctly predicting who would or would not make it over the years.  I was one of the few who correctly, publicly forecast the 2013 shutout.

A review of the voting process: Members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA) do the voting.  Late each fall, ballots are distributed to active and retired beat-writers who have been BBWAA members for ten years or more.  The ballots, which are to be returned by the end of the year, list candidates in alphabetical order, instructing voters to choose up to ten players (the average writer selects about six).  Eligible candidates include men who played in at least ten seasons in the majors, the last of which was not less than five nor more than 20 years prior to the election.  Any candidate being named on at least 75% of the ballots is elected to the Hall; anyone receiving less than 5% of the vote is dropped from further consideration.  The BBWAA honors an average of about two players per year.  The 2014 results will be announced on January 8 at 2:00 EST.

More than half of the 37 players who were listed on the 2013 ballot are not on the 2014 version: Dale Murphy, who failed in his final attempt; and 19 others (Bernie Williams, Kenny Lofton, Sandy Alomar, Jr., Julio Franco, David Wells, Steve Finley, Shawn Green, Aaron Sele, Jeff Cirillo, Royce Clayton, Jeff Conine, Roberto Hernandez, Ryan Klesko, Jose Mesa, Reggie Sanders, Mike Stanton, Todd Walker, Rondell White, and Woody Williams) who were dropped for failing to reach the 5%-cutoff.  These men collected just 177 votes in 2013, and the strong 2014 rookie class figures to amass many more than that.  This means that most if not all of the 17 returnees are likely to drop down in the voting.  There are a lot of new and returning candidates with Cooperstown credentials, but there are simply not enough votes to go around.  Though each voter is permitted ten selections, the average voter uses considerably fewer than that.  The number of votes per voter has been below seven every year since 1986, and sunk to a record low of 5.1 in 2012.  Though I expect that number to soar to its highest level in three decades, it won’t be enough to unclutter the ballot

Many of the 2014 first-time eligibles are destined for just one try on the writers’ ballot, the consequence of being overshadowed and receiving less than 5% of the vote.   Those include Moises Alou (332 home runs, .303 average, between injuries), Luis Gonzalez (2591 hits, 596 doubles, and 354 homers, including 57 in 2001), Sean Casey (.302 average), Kenny Rogers (219-156 record, including a perfect game), Richie Sexson (306 HR), Hideo Nomo (123-109, including two no-hitters), Ray Durham (2054 hits), Eric Gagne (187 saves, including 84 straight, and the 2003 NL Cy Young Award), and Keith Foulke (191 saves).

Here’s the way I foresee the rest of the election shaping up, with newcomers in bold and predicted percentages in parentheses:

Greg Maddux (94) – The winningest right-hander of the past century, Maddux went 355-227 with four straight NL Cy Young Awards (1992-95).  He’ll make it to Cooperstown easily.

Tom Glavine (67) – Though seldom considered the ace of his own team, Glavine won two Cy Youngs himself while going 305-203.  In this crowd in this year, that won’t be good enough for Cooperstown.

Frank Thomas (63) – The most fearsome slugger of the 1990s, The Big Hurt finished with 521 homers and a .301 average, winning the 1994 and ’95 AL MVPs.  See the Glavine comment.

Craig Biggio (61) – An excellent but not dominant player who amassed 3060 hits, 1844 runs, 668 doubles, and 414 stolen bases.

Jack Morris (58) – The winningest pitcher of the 1980s, he went 254-186 in his career without ever posting an ERA below three or a Cy Young Award finish above third.  This is his final try on the BBWAA ballot.

Mike Piazza (54) – The best offensive catcher of all time (419 homers, .308 average), he managed to survive steroids rumors and a poor defensive reputation.

Jeff Bagwell (48) – Batted .297 with 449 homers and 1529 RBI in just 15 seasons, winning the 1994 NL MVP Award.

Tim Raines (45) – Rock was an outstanding player whose credentials (including an 808-146 stolen base record) are only starting to be appreciated by voters.

Lee Smith (39) – Lost his all-time saves record (and his only persuasive Hall of Fame argument) in 2006 to Trevor Hoffman, who in turn lost it to Mariano Rivera in 2011.

Roger Clemens (29) – The most-accomplished pitcher of the past century, if not any century, Clemens won a record seven Cy Young Awards and seven ERA crowns while going 354-184 with 4672 strikeouts.  His reputation has been skewered by well-documented accusations of steroids and HGH use, though he was acquitted of perjury on the subject.

Barry Bonds (29) – The most accomplished non-pitcher with the possible exception of Babe Ruth, Bonds won a record seven MVP Awards and set all-time marks for career homers (762, including a record 73 in 2001) and walks (2558, a record 668 of them intentional).  For good measure, he added 514 stolen bases and eight Gold Glove Awards.  But, like Clemens, his accusations of using performance enhancers in the second half of his career, along with his surly relationship with the media, will keep him out of Cooperstown for the foreseeable future.

Curt Schilling (27) – His won-lost record (216-146) is modest by Hall of Fame standards, but he had three second-place Cy Young Award finishes and 3116 strikeouts with a record 4.38 SO:BB ratio.  Moreover, he starred for three different World Series teams, the 1993 Phillies, the 2001 D’backs (for whom he shared Series MVP honors), and the 2004 Red Sox (for whom he authored the gutsy “bloody sock” performance).  Nevertheless, he’ll drop sharply from his strong 39% showing in his first try.

Edgar Martinez (26) – Though he didn’t become a big league regular until he was 27, the DH wound up with 2247 hits, 514 doubles, 309 homers, and a .312 average.

Alan Trammell (25) – A fine shortstop, overshadowed throughout his career by Cal Ripken and Robin Yount.

Larry Walker (16) – Hit 383 homers and batted .313, winning three batting titles and the 1997 NL MVP Award, though most of his damage was done a mile above sea level.

Fred McGriff (15) – Crime Dog had 493 home runs and 1550 RBI, winning homer titles in each league.

Mark McGwire (13) – Had 583 home runs, a .588 slugging average, and the highest homer percentage of all time, but has become the voters’ poster boy for players accused of using PEs.

Don Mattingly (10) – After a half-dozen years as one of the game’s most productive hitters, Mattingly was reduced to mediocrity by back problems.  Still, he wound up with credentials eerily similar to 2001 first-ballot inductee Kirby Puckett’s.

Jeff Kent (9) – Kent set the record for most career home runs by a second baseman and won the 2000 NL MVP Award.  The recent Survivor contestant finished with 377 homers and a .290 average, but will struggle to survive on this ballot.

Mike Mussina (7) – Moose went 20-9 in his final season to finish at 270-153.  Since 1893, only 12 pitchers finished with more wins over .500, and just three have a higher career strikeout-to-walk ratio.  Nevertheless, Mussina will be lucky to even make the 5% cut.

Rafael Palmeiro (5) – He was a slam-dunk Hall of Famer until a positive steroids test (shortly after his finger-pointing denial of steroids-use under oath) effectively ended his career.  Voters remember that performance more than his 3020 hits, 569 homers, or 1835 RBI, and may just snub him off the ballot.

Sammy Sosa (5) – Slammed 609 home runs, including three 60-homer seasons and an MVP Award, in a career also tainted by performance-enhancer accusations.  He too may be knocked off the ballot, after just two tries.

Looking ahead toward upcoming elections, it appears the ballot will only get more crowded.  In 2015 the leading newcomers will be pitching aces Randy Johnson, John Smoltz, and Pedro Martinez (nine Cy Young Awards among them), along with sluggers Gary Sheffield and Carlos Delgado.  The following year, Ken Griffey, Jr. and Trevor Hoffman will top the rookie list.  The 2017 ballot will include Manny Ramirez, Ivan Rodriguez, and Jorge Posada.  Jim Thome, Chipper Jones, Omar Vizquel, Johnny Damon, and Jamie Moyer will become eligible in 2018.  And any ten-year veteran who played in 2013, but does not return next season – Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettitte, and Todd Helton, to name three – will join the 2019 ballot.

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Guest post: An opponent remembers Jackie Robinson’s first day in the minors

Editor’s note: With Jackie Robinson biopic “42” due in theaters Friday, it is my pleasure to present Nick Diunte’s latest: an interview with someone who faced Robinson in his minor league debut in 1946.
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Jackie Robinson’s impact on baseball was felt immediately the moment he stepped on the field for the Montreal Royals in their season opener against the Jersey City Giants on April 18, 1946. In addition to all of the social implications behind Robinson’s debut, his 4-for-5 performance that included a home run, two bunt singles, and two runs scored by causing Jersey City’s pitchers to balk, left an indelible mark on his opposition.

Larry Miggins’ view of Robinson’s eye opening performance remains vivid some sixty-seven years later. The 20-year-old Bronx, New York native manned third base for Jersey City that day and had no trouble recalling how the day’s events unfolded.

“I remember it well,” the 87-year-old Miggins said from his home in Houston, Texas. “It was a full house, 45,000 fans. The place was packed.”

As the team went over its pre-game scouting report, information on Robinson’s tendencies were limited to what the manager had seen during batting practice. The Giants and Royals were due to meet in spring training, but the game was cancelled when officials in Jacksonville, Fla., upheld a city ordinance that did not permit mixed racial competition.

“Most of the guys were known by somebody, but when it came to Robinson nobody ever had seen him play,” Miggins said. “Our manager Bruno Betzel said he saw during batting practice that Robinson was a strong pull hitter. He said to me, ‘Miggins, you play him deep at third base.’”

Following his coach’s orders, Miggins positioned himself as instructed. During Robinson’s first two at-bats, the ball didn’t come Miggins’ way, as he grounded out to shortstop his first time up, and then hit a 335-foot home run down the left field line.

Expecting another powerful shot by Robinson, Miggins held his ground behind the third base bag as Robinson approached for his third at-bat.

“Next time up, I’m playing back, deep behind third base,” said Miggins. “He bunted and dropped one down. I could throw a ball through a brick wall in those days, so I pick it up and fire to first base and it was a real close play, safe. He could run too you know. He beat it out.”

Robinson proceeded to hit a single to right-center field during his fourth at-bat, which set the stage for Miggins to have another close encounter with the Royals second baseman. He did not think that Robinson would test him a second time with a bunt.

“Like an idiot, I’m playing him back at third base again the fifth time up. He dropped another bunt down and beat it out,” said Miggins. It was a lesson learned for the young infielder. “I gave him two hits that day and he never bunted again on me because I played him even with the bag from then on.”

Miggins went on to play parts of two seasons in the majors with the St. Louis Cardinals in 1948 and 1952, but his involvement with Robinson’s debut is one that he wears with a sense of pride and humor.

“They got him into the Hall of Fame and there he was, Rookie of the Year, MVP, and a World Series Champ, all because of the great start I gave him in baseball!” said a laughing Miggins. “I gave him two hits opening day and he never stopped from there, he just kept going. I always look back and that 4-for-5 opening day gave him a thrust for his whole career.”

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Related: Recollections from one of Robinson’s 1947 spring training teammates

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Guest post: Researchers, players disagree on optimal baseball bat weights

Photographs of Babe Ruth often capture the slugger gripping a bat, if not two, that resembles a troll’s club in length and thickness. With such a mass of lumber, one is tempted to think, it’s no wonder the guy hit 714 home runs.

But according to physicists, heavy bats can be detrimental to a player’s swing. One study, based on the calculation of bat speed, estimates that the average professional baseball player should swing a 31.1-ounce bat and the average college baseball player a 29.4-ouncer, but players at both levels often drastically exceed those guidelines.

Heavy bats, in fact, are ingrained in baseball lore.

Early-20th century star Frank “Home Run” Baker used a 52-ounce bat, according to Baseball: The Biographical Encyclopedia, and the Louisville Slugger company once sold bats weighing more than 45 ounces to many players, including eventual Hall of Famers Baker and Edd Roush.

But the end of the Deadball Era in the 1920s led to an emphasis on power over contact and an influx of lighter bats, according to P.J. Shelley of the Louisville Slugger Museum & Factory.

Then came Hall of Famer Ted Williams, a student of the game and one of history’s greatest hitters. Shelley says Williams, who mostly ordered bats between 32 and 34 ounces during a career that lasted from 1939 to 1960, was “one of the first to recognize that bat speed is more important than the weight of the bat.”

From Williams until about 25 years ago, bat weights dropped further, and today’s average Major Leaguer swings about 31.5 or 32 ounces, according to Shelley.

Though most players now use lighter bats than their predecessors, some still believe the more mass the better. According to Shelley, the Los Angeles Angels’ Josh Hamilton and Los Angeles Dodgers’ Hanley Ramirez swing 34.5- or 35-ounce bats, among the heaviest in the Major Leagues. And one Chicago Cubs player recently made headlines for his weighty bat choice.

In June 2012, Chicago Cubs left-fielder Alfonso Soriano was persuaded by manager Dale Sveum to pick up a 32-ounce bat, after years of using a 33.5-ounce behemoth, according to the Chicago Sun-Times.

“He’s typically used one of the heaviest bats in baseball most of his career,” Sun-Times reporter Gordon Wittenmyer said. “And you could make a case that’s part of his high-strikeout total, and it’s definitely part of his home run totals.”

Research supports Sveum’s suggestion that Soriano swing a lighter stick: In 1995, Terry Bahill and Miguel Morna Freitas of the University of Arizona developed a model that used bat speed to calculate ideal bat weight for any given baseball player. They also developed a simpler version using height, weight and age to estimate the optimal weight. According to the latter model, Soriano, at his listed height of 6 feet 1 inch, should use a 31.3-ounce bat, which, according to Bahill, would increase his contact rate.

“The 31- and the 33-ounce bat wouldn’t make a lot of difference in the distance the ball would go,” Bahill said. “But we think he could swing it more accurately if it were smaller.”

According to the Arizona duo’s study, the average college baseball player is best off with a 29.4-ounce bat, but Northwestern University baseball coach Paul Stevens said options are limited and most players use either 30- or 31-ounce bats.

NU shortstop Trevor Stevens is listed at 5 feet 9 inches, suggesting he should, according to Bahill’s model, swing a 29-ounce bat. But the switch-hitter uses a 31-ounce bat when he bats left-handed and a 30-ounce bat when he bats right-handed. He said those weights reflect what manufacturers produce and therefore what college players can access.

“There are bats that are weighted differently within the barrel and the handle,” Stevens said. “They feel lighter in your hands, but the ball doesn’t jump off of them as much.”

Stevens was referring to “moment of inertia” (or “swing weight” in baseball parlance), a parameter that measures the distribution of mass along the bat. Dr. Daniel A. Russell of Pennsylvania State University said a number of studies have proven moment of inertia more important than bat weight in bat choice.

“It’s not just how heavy the bat is, it’s how that weight is distributed,” Russell said. “You can take two bats that both weight 30 ounces and you’ll get very different behaviors depending on how the weight is distributed.”

Despite the available research, Wittenmyer said he has never heard anyone around the Major Leagues reference any studies on bat choice, suggesting the choices players make when choosing their equipment is more instinct than science.

Unscientific thinking may be advisable given the imprecision of the researchers’ conclusions. Bahill said his simplified model can only predict ideal bat weight within about two ounces and in order to get precise results, a player must come into his lab for measurements.

Hence what Shelley calls the true determinant of bat choice among baseball players of all ages.

“It’s a matter of player preference,” he said. “And what feels comfortable to them.”

The Bat Chooser: In 1995, Terry Bahill and Morna Freitas developed a method for choosing the right baseball bat, appropriately dubbed “The Bat Chooser.” This model calculated maximum bat speed using the force generated by a players swing and measured subjects across all levels of play. Because the original Bat Chooser required players to visit a laboratory for precise measurement, the researchers simplified their model to estimate ideal bat weight using height, weight and age. Later research brought into question the validity of these calculations.

Mean ideal bat weight of those studied (oz)

Number of subjects studied

Professional, major league

31.1

27

University baseball

29.4

9

University softball

29.7

19

Junior league, age 13-15

21.7

6

Little League, age 11-12

21.3

34

Little League, age 9-10

21.5

29

Little League, age 7-8

19

27

Slow pitch softball

25.7

12

 

Recommended Bat Weight (oz)

Professional, major league

Height/3 + 7

University baseball

Height/3 +6

Fast pitch softball

Height/7 + 20

Junior league, age 13-15

Height/3 + 1

Little League, age 11-12

Weight/18 + 16

Little League, age 9-10

Height/3 + 4

Little League, age 7-8

Age*2 + 4

Slow pitch softball

Weight/115 + 24

Age (years); height (inches); weight (pounds)

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Guest post: Book review: Banzai Babe Ruth

Editor’s note: Please welcome Japanese baseball expert Paul Gillespie to the site. Today, Paul reviews the book that recently won the prestigious Seymour Medal from the Society for American Baseball Research.

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As a baseball historian, I looked forward to reading Robert Fitts’ 2012 book, Banzai Babe Ruth.

I was not disappointed.

Fitts carefully reconstructed the socio-political climate in Japan during the 1934 tour by American Major Leaguers to the Land of the Rising Sun. I discussed Fitts’ description of Japan and the Japanese (during that era) with my many friends who, with their families, lived there at that time. Some had actually attended some of the games during the tour. They believe Fitts got it right.

Fitts ties together the beginnings of modern pro baseball in Japan with the Americans’ tour in 1934. It is an accurate tie-in.

Remember, baseball had been introduced into Japan during the 1870s, and had evolved into the most popular team sport in the country. Virtually every high school and college played baseball, and there were already calls for a professional league. Also, by this time, the “shamateurism” of company teams was already evident.

Babe Ruth was the uncontested star of the tour. His baseball exploits, combined with his larger-than-life personality, made him an instant celebrity in Japan. Kids there, like kids everywhere, idolized “The Babe”!

Even with the strong aura of nationalistic fervor in Japan (please recall, Japan was already a strong military and commercial presence in Formosa, Korea and China–particularly Manchuria–during this time), Babe Ruth and his fellow Americans were enthusiastically cheered everywhere in Japan. This, even though the Japanese people were well aware of the United States’ oft-stated displeasure with Japan’s military “adventurism” in the aforementioned areas of Asia.

Fitts covers the games well. Plus, he describes the travel in detail. He also expertly explains the socio-political climate in Japan at the time.

Interestingly, he provides some tangential background on the great pitcher Victor Starffin, including a controversial version of the murder/manslaughter charges brought against his father (known as Constantin). The details of this incident are so covered up in cover-ups, it is unlikely that the real truth will ever be discovered. Yet, Fitts gives a very credible version of the events, so far as the details are known.

While I am a big fan of Fitts’ persistence in research, and an admirer of his manifestation of baseball history in Japan, I do wish he had, among his many fine photographs in the book, published a picture of Violet Linda Whitehill (wife of the Washington Senators’ Earl Whitehill). She was one of the great beauties of the Western World, and her picture would have been a standout in the photograph section.

Also, I read with much interest the author’s take on catcher Moe Berg’s presence on the trip. While it has long been assumed that Berg was directed to spy for the United States while in Japan, Fitts apparently believes, as did my father, that while proximity created some opportunities to spy, it was not directed. Whatever the truth, Berg was one of the most fascinating people to ever play Major League baseball.

I heartily recommend Robert Fitts’ “Banzai Babe Ruth”. It is a great read for a baseball fan. It is also an unusually well-researched book on the history of the prelude to the U.S. entry into WWII.

I consider the book to be especially important to the history of baseball in both countries.

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Guest post: Stan the Man

Stan Musial represented everything that I believed baseball was when I was a kid. He represented everything that is sorely missing from the game today. He played the game and loved the game for the sake and the beauty of the game. Above and beyond his tremendous accomplishments on the field, Musial was a rarity in life, a class act.

Musial died on January 19 at 92. I hadn’t given him much thought over the years I must admit but his passing has somehow struck me more than anyone not a friend or a relative. I saw him on television in his final major league at bat (the weekly New York Yankee Saturday Game of the Week was interrupted for this) and at the time I had little idea of who he was and what he had accomplished.

The numbers of course speak for themselves. Loudly. 3,630 hit (in an odd quirk he had the exact same number of hits at home and on the road). A career batting average of .331. 1,951 RBI. Three National League MVP awards. He was an All Star 24 times. He was a World champion three times. At the time of his retirement in 1963, Musial held or shared 17 major league records, 29 National League records and nine All star game records.

Off the field he was a successful entrepreneur in the restaurant business. He played his entire 23 year career with the St. Louis cardinals. He has two statues at Busch Stadium in St. Louis. He was elected into the Baseball Hall of Fame in 1969 on the first ballot.

In 2011, Musial was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom, the highest award which can be given to an American civilian.

Born in Donora, Pennsylvania, one of five children, Musial played semi pro baseball at 15 and quickly became a star despite playing against adults. His father had initially resisted the dream of playing baseball professionally but Stan and his mother, after much debate with his father, eventually changed his father’s mind about making the game of baseball into a viable livelihood.

He was originally signed as a pitcher. His batting skills soon outshone any notion the St. Louis organization might have had about Musial being a big league pitcher. His second season in the minor leagues, Musial won nine games but his .352. As with Babe Ruth before him, his batting skills were too great to ignore.

Musial reportedly almost gave up the game in 1940 as he was newly married, had one child and was trying to make ends meet on $16 a week. A shoulder injury in 1939 didn’t help the situation but his then manager and later lifelong friend Dickie Kerr convinced Musial to keep at it, seeing the potential that was lying just below the surface.

In the fall of 1941, Musial was promoted to the Cardinals. The legacy was about to begin.

In the 12 games Musial played in St. Louis in 1941, Musial hit .462 almost helping the Cardinals win the National League pennant that season. The following season he led St. Louis to the World Series, along the way winning the NL rookie of the year award.

In 1954 he became the first player (Nate Colbert replicated the feat in 1972) to hit five home runs in a double header. That day, he also became the only player to ever total 21 bases in a double header.

The highlights go on and on and on.

Stanley Frank “Stan” Musial had the ability and personality fitting one of the all-time greats.

Ty Cobb noted in a 1952 Life magazine article:

No man has ever been a perfect ballplayer. Stan Musial, however, is the closest to being perfect in the game today…. He plays as hard when his club is away out in front of a game as he does when they’re just a run or two behind.

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Guest post: Bill Deane’s 2013 Hall of Fame election forecast

Editor’s note: Please welcome Bill Deane, former senior research associate at the Hall of Fame and a longtime friend of the site. For more than 30 years, Bill has made a science of studying past voting results for Cooperstown by the Baseball Writers Association of America and predicting who will get in. He does this with great accuracy, including predicting Barry Larkin’s enshrinement last year. I’m honored to have Bill’s predictions exclusive at BPP, the night before BBWAA voting results are released. Let’s see how Bill does.

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The 2013 Hall of Fame ballot is the most star-studded and controversial since the very first one in 1936, with newcomers including arguably the best position player and the best pitcher of all time, along with four others with obvious Cooperstown credentials. Yet, according to my crystal baseball, none of these notables – nor anyone else – will be elected to the Hall this January, resulting in the first BBWAA shutout since 1996.

This is my 32nd year predicting Hall of Fame elections. I think the acid test of prognostication performance lies in guessing the fate of men who finish within 10% either way of being elected (i.e., who receive between 65-85% of the vote). Among such candidates, I have gone 48-12 (.800) in correctly predicting who would or would not make it over the years.

A review of the voting process: Members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA) do the voting. Late each autumn, ballots are distributed to active and retired beat-writers who have been BBWAA members for ten years or more. The ballots, which are to be returned by the end of the year, list candidates in alphabetical order, instructing voters to choose up to ten players (the average writer selects about six). Eligible candidates include men who played in at least ten seasons in the majors, the last of which was not less than five nor more than 20 years prior to the election. Any candidate being named on at least 75% of the ballots is elected to the Hall; anyone receiving less than 5% of the vote is dropped from further consideration. The BBWAA honors an average of about two players per year. The 2013 results will be announced on January 9.

More than half of the 27 players who were listed on the 2012 ballot are not on the 2013 version: Barry Larkin, who was elected; and 13 others (Juan Gonzalez, Vinny Castilla, Tim Salmon, Bill Mueller, Brad Radke, Javy Lopez, Eric Young, Jeromy Burnitz, Brian Jordan, Terry Mulholland, Phil Nevin, Ruben Sierra, and Tony Womack) who were dropped for failing to reach the 5%-cutoff. These men collected just 537 votes in 2012, and the stellar 2013 rookie class figures to amass many more than that. This means that most if not all of the 13 returning candidates are likely to drop down in the voting.

The problems facing the ballot rookies are (1) those with the best credentials have been tarnished by accusations or rumors of the use of performance-enhancers, and (2) there are simply not enough votes to go around. Though each voter is permitted ten selections, the average voter uses considerably fewer than that. The number of votes per voter has been below seven every year since 1986, and sunk to a record low of 5.1 in 2012.

Many of the 2013 first-time eligibles are destined for just one try on the writers’ ballot, the consequence of being overshadowed and receiving less than 5% of the vote. Yet, many have solid résumés, and will get some votes. Among these are David Wells (239-157 record, including a perfect game), Kenny Lofton (622 stolen bases, .299 average), Steve Finley (2548 hits, 304 homers, 320 SB), Julio Franco (2528 hits, the last at age 49), Shawn Green (328 HR, including four in one game), Reggie Sanders (305 HR, 304 SB), Roberto Hernandez (326 saves), Jose Mesa (321 saves), Sandy Alomar, Jr. (six All-Star selections), Jeff Conine (214 HR, .285), Ryan Klesko (278 HR, .279), Aaron Sele (148-112), Rondell White (198 HR, .284), Jeff Cirillo (112 HR, .296), Woody Williams (132-116), Mike Stanton (1178 games pitched), and Royce Clayton. White and Stanton were named as HGH-users in the Mitchell Report.
Here’s the way I foresee the rest of the election shaping up, with predicted percentages in parentheses:

Craig Biggio (72) – An excellent but not dominant player who amassed 3060 hits, 1844 runs, 668 doubles, and 414 stolen bases.

Jack Morris (63) – The winningest pitcher of the 1980s, he went 254-186 in his career without ever posting an ERA below three or a Cy Young Award finish above third.

Mike Piazza (58) – The best offensive catcher of all time (419 homers, .308 average), he managed to survive steroids rumors and a poor defensive reputation.

Jeff Bagwell (56) – Batted .297 with 449 homers and 1529 RBI in just 15 seasons, winning the 1994 NL MVP Award.

Tim Raines (46) – Rock was an outstanding player whose credentials (including an 808-146 stolen base record) are only starting to be appreciated by voters.

Lee Smith (45) – Lost his all-time saves record (and his only persuasive Hall of Fame argument) in 2006 to Trevor Hoffman, who in turn lost it to Mariano Rivera in 2011.

Roger Clemens (44) – The most-accomplished pitcher of the past century, if not any century, Clemens won a record seven Cy Young Awards and seven ERA crowns while going 354-184 with 4672 strikeouts. His reputation has been skewered by well-documented accusations of steroids and HGH use, though he was acquitted of perjury on the subject.

Curt Schilling (41) – His won-lost record (216-146) is modest by Hall of Fame standards, but he had three second-place Cy Young Award finishes and 3116 strikeouts with a record 4.38 SO:BB ratio. Moreover, he starred for three different World Series teams, the 1993 Phillies, the 2001 D’backs (for whom he shared Series MVP honors), and the 2004 Red Sox (for whom he authored the gutsy “bloody sock” performance).

Barry Bonds (35) – The most accomplished non-pitcher with the possible exception of Babe Ruth, Bonds won a record seven MVP Awards and set all-time marks for career homers (762, including a record 73 in 2001) and walks (2558, a record 668 of them intentional). For good measure, he added 514 stolen bases and eight Gold Glove Awards. But, like Clemens, his accusations of using performance enhancers in the second half of his career, along with his surly relationship with the media, will keep him out of Cooperstown for the foreseeable future.

Edgar Martinez (31) – Though he didn’t become a big league regular until he was 27, the DH wound up with 2247 hits, 514 doubles, 309 homers, and a .312 average.

Alan Trammell (30) – A fine shortstop, overshadowed throughout his career by Cal Ripken and Robin Yount.

Fred McGriff (22) – Crime Dog had 493 home runs and 1550 RBI, winning homer titles in each league.

Larry Walker (20) – Hit 383 homers and batted .313, winning three batting titles and the 1997 NL MVP Award, though most of his damage was done a mile above sea level.

Sammy Sosa (20) – Slammed 609 home runs, including three 60-homer seasons and an MVP Award, in a career also tainted by performance-enhancer accusations.

Mark McGwire (17) – Had 583 home runs, a .588 slugging average, and the highest homer percentage of all time, but has become the voters’ poster boy for players accused of using PEs.

Don Mattingly (14) – After a half-dozen years as one of the game’s most productive hitters, Mattingly was reduced to mediocrity by back problems. Still, he wound up with credentials eerily similar to 2001 first-ballot inductee Kirby Puckett’s.

Dale Murphy (14) – Two straight MVPs highlight a checkered résumé. This is his final try on the BBWAA ballot.

Bernie Williams (12) – The only 2012 first-year candidate to remain on the ballot, he helped the Yankees to four world championships in the midst of his eight straight .300-seasons, including the 1998 AL batting crown.

Rafael Palmeiro (10) – He was a slam-dunk Hall of Famer until a positive steroids test (shortly after his finger-pointing denial of steroids-use under oath) effectively ended his career. Voters remember that performance more than his 3020 hits, 569 homers, or 1835 RBI.

Looking ahead toward upcoming elections, it appears the ballot will only get more crowded. In 2014 the leading newcomers will be Greg Maddux, Frank Thomas, Tom Glavine, Mike Mussina, and Jeff Kent. The following year, Randy Johnson, John Smoltz, and Pedro Martinez will bring their nine Cy Young Awards up for consideration, joining Gary Sheffield and Carlos Delgado. In 2016, Ken Griffey, Jr. and Trevor Hoffman will top the rookie list. And the 2017 ballot will include Manny Ramirez, Ivan Rodriguez, and Jorge Posada. Any ten-year player active in 2012 who does not return in ’13 (Chipper Jones and Omar Vizquel, for two) will become eligible in 2018.

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Guest post: Locke Field, the Gainesville Owls and the King

Editor’s note: Please welcome Dave England to the site. Dave is a longtime friend of BPP and contributed to my project for a Hall of Fame Inner Circle.

To my infant son everything is new: shapes, colors, sizes, the garden in the front yard with tomatoes growing on the vine, the ballpark seats flanked on either side of him as he takes in the sounds and smells.

I imagine this is what it was like when Elvis Presley stopped in Gainesville, Texas on April 14, 1955 and played in front of about 150 fans at Locke Field. The little town had not yet caught up to the phenomena that would be dubbed “The King of Rock and Roll.” But then again Elvis was not the King quite yet. He had just released his fourth single, “Baby let’s Play House/ I’m Left, You’re Right, She’s gone,” on April 10th. Rolling through Texas he was playing hayrides, high schools and ballparks. Later that summer things would explode for him.

Locke Field opened in 1946, was home to the Gainesville Owls and is one of the last baseball fields in Texas with wooden dugouts and covered wooden stands. It opened in a time when fans would dress up: female spectators decked out in hats, gloves and dresses; men in suits and top hats. It was an era of baseball that when a player homered, fans would put a dollar bill through the chicken wire fence for him. Locke Field operated as a Class D ballpark, a level of the Minor Leagues that no longer exists. Class D was the absolute bottom of the ladder and was wiped away in 1963 by television in an era before minor league baseball boomed again. The Society of American Baseball Research has identified Locke Field as one of the last Class D ballparks in existence.

The Gainesville Owls were a Class B Big State League [1947-1951] and a Sooner State League [1953-1955] baseball team, making Gainesville the smallest city in the nation with a Class B baseball team. Money was tight. Management provided uniforms but the players had to furnish equipment such as gloves and spikes. At the end of the first season the City of Gainesville purchased the team and Dr. W. Herbert Locke, for whom the field was named, became club president. In 1951 under manager Hal Van Pelt the team won the Big State League championship when players like Jodie Beeler [2B, 3B, 1944 Reds], Jim Kirby [PH/PR, 1949 Cubs] and Jackie Sullivan [2B, 1944 Tigers] who had previous cups of coffee in the majors helped bring it home to Gainesville. Other players who had stints in the majors who played at Owl Field included: Gibby Brack, Lonnie Goldstein, Hank Gornicki, Ed Cole, Hooks Iott, Earl Reid, Jesse Landrum, Eddie Carnett, John Buzhardt and Eddie Haas.

From 1953-1955 the team was affiliated with the Chicago Cubs. The team struggled for several years and poor finances and poor showings took their toll. In 1955 the team moved to Ponca City, Oklahoma and became the Ponca City Cubs.

Since then the stadium has, at various times, played home to the North Texas Central Texas College and Gainesville High baseball teams. The stadium is engraved into the history of the city nearly as deep as the courthouse and train depot. But now that the college has built a national powerhouse, they have their own facility in Darwin Fields and the high school still plays there and is in charge of maintenance although they may build a new park soon. So the city is set to tear down the 65 year-old structure and put in something to help bring money into the small town that is starting to blossom.

Thing is, Locke Field can help Gainesville if it doesn’t meet the wrecker’s ball. The park would be a great fit for the Texas Collegiate League – a league used by college players to hone their skills during the summer. The park could be leased out. It’s also suitable for summer tournaments which would bring money to local hotels and restaurants and employ people at the park.

The old Gainesville motto is having a “small town atmosphere with a global attitude.” This can mean honoring a vital part of the town’s history and character even as it grows. According to the Texas Historical Commission, Locke Field passes the three criteria to be designated a historical landmark- age, historical significance and architectural integrity. It’s a gem worth preserving.

There’s an apartment complex in Brooklyn where Ebbets Field once stood. Here’s hoping a similar fate doesn’t befall Locke Field.