howard – Baseball: Past and Present

March 29, 2012

Any player/Any era: Al Kaline

What he did: For being a baseball Hall of Famer, and one of his sport’s greatest living players, Al Kaline is a forgotten man sometimes. Sure, the longtime Detroit Tiger has 3,007 hits, a .297 lifetime batting average, and a revered spot in his franchise’s lore. But ask anyone the greatest outfielder of the 1950s or ’60s and talk may sooner center on Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, or Mickey Mantle, among so many others. Limit the conversation to right fielders, and some may still sooner give a nod to Roberto Clemente or Frank Robinson or, if we’re simply talking peak value, Roger Maris or Rocky Colavito.

It isn’t Kaline’s fault that he played in perhaps the greatest generation of outfielders in baseball history. He made the most of his opportunity and has a well-deserved Hall of Fame plaque. In a less star-studded era, though, Kaline’s offensive stats might drop but his legacy could be greater.

Era he might have thrived in: If the 1950s and ’60s were the summer blockbuster season of baseball history, the ’70s and ’80s were like August, a time for second-rate action thrillers, sleeper hits, and the occasional box office bomb. Might Al Kaline have been Keanu Reeves in “Chain Reaction” on the Pittsburgh Pirates of this era? Hardly.

Why: With his foot speed and mix of contact and power hitting, Kaline would have excelled on the artificial turf at Three Rivers Stadium in Pittsburgh and a number of other ballparks in these days. Kaline never had the all-out power that came to define baseball in the 1990s, but then, neither did George Brett, Robin Yount, or most other Hall of Famers from their less offensive era. It’s why Mike Schmidt used to lead the National League with less than 40 home runs, one reason why Tony Perez and Jim Rice made Cooperstown with under 400 career home runs and Dwight Evans, Dale Murphy, and Dave Parker could follow suit eventually.

No one would begrudge Kaline hitting .330 with 20 home runs and 100 RBI on a team like the 1979 Pirates. In fact, these numbers and his defense would probably make him one of the best players in the National League. His presence might also make Pittsburgh better longer. For all the joy and warmth the “We Are Family” Pirates evoked beating the Baltimore Orioles in the ’79 World Series, their 1980 club was among baseball’s most historically dysfunctional teams, beset with cocaine abuse. Players like Rod Scurry, Bernie Carbo, and mercurial then-superstar Parker would later figure prominently in the infamous Pittsburgh drug trials of the mid-’80s.

Perhaps a steady, non-assuming person with no hint of scandal during his career, someone like Kaline could have a calming effect on that clubhouse, even if a leader as graceful and respected as Willie Stargell seemingly lost its hold. Who knows, maybe Stargell needed help and someone to assume his mantle with his career winding down. I’ll concede, of course, that Kaline could easily get swept up in the times when players rode the white horse as much as a later generation dabbled in performance enhancers. But I’d like to give Kaline the benefit of the doubt.

Any player/Any era is a Thursday feature (generally) here that looks at how a player might have done in an era besides his own.

Others in this series: Al Simmons, Albert Pujols, Babe Ruth, Bad News Rockies, Barry Bonds, Billy Beane, Billy Martin, Bob Caruthers, Bob Feller, Bob Watson, Bobby Veach, Carl Mays, Cesar Cedeno, Charles Victory Faust, Chris von der Ahe, Denny McLain, Dom DiMaggio, Don Drysdale, Doug Glanville, Eddie Lopat, Elmer Flick, Eric Davis, Frank Howard, Fritz Maisel, Gary Carter, Gavvy Cravath, Gene Tenace, George W. Bush (as commissioner), George Case, George Weiss, Harmon Killebrew, Harry Walker, Home Run Baker, Honus Wagner, Hugh Casey, Ichiro Suzuki, Jack Clark, Jack Morris, Jackie Robinson, Jim Abbott, Jimmy Wynn, Joe DiMaggio, Joe Posnanski, Johnny Antonelli, Johnny Frederick, Josh Gibson, Josh Hamilton, Ken Griffey Jr., Lefty Grove, Lefty O’Doul, Major League (1989 film),Mark Fidrych, Matty Alou, Michael Jordan, Monte Irvin, Nate Colbert, Ollie Carnegie, Paul Derringer, Pedro Guerrero, Pedro Martinez, Pee Wee Reese, Pete Rose, Prince Fielder, Ralph Kiner, Rick Ankiel, Rickey Henderson, Roberto Clemente, Rogers Hornsby, Sam Crawford, Sam Thompson, Sandy Koufax, Satchel Paige, Shoeless Joe Jackson, Spud Chandler, Stan Musial, Ted Williams, The Meusel Brothers, Tony Phillips, Ty Cobb, Vada Pinson, Wally Bunker, Wes Ferrell, Will Clark, Willie Mays

March 29, 2012

Managers with the Most Wins and Their Playing Careers Part II: Decades

Recently, we looked at how the group of managers with 900 or more wins broke down globally. This piece attempts to ascertain how the attributes of managers with 900 or more wins changed or not over time.

1980s — Average playing career: 11.5 seasons — War: 20

Mgr	Played in MLB	WAR	W	L	W-L%	Plyof App	WSwon	Player/Manager
Mike Scioscia	as player	23.7	1066	878	0.548	6	1
Ozzie Guillen	as player	15.9	678	617	0.524	2	1
Ron Gardenhire	as player	0.5	866	755	0.534	6	0
Jim Tracy	as player	-0.7	792	782	0.503	2	0
Terry Francona	as player	-3.7	1029	915	0.529	5	2

Not surprisingly only two managers with 900 or more wins (Terry Francona and Mike Scioscia) started their playing careers after 1980. Of course, we could probably add Ron Gardenhire, Jim Tracy and Ozzie Guillen (I’ve done so in the chart, but not the averages) to this list as they’ll likely earn the requisite wins to join the club.

Oddly, Francona and Scioscia have the same amount of games managed and, combined, their managerial record is 2095-1793. If you add the three other likely managers, this group has a 4,431-3,947. Pretty impressive. Together they have four World Series titles.

Of course, their playing careers weren’t all that successful. Tracy played just two years and Gardenhire played in just five (although he managed 0.5 WAR). Francona was a pretty poor player for 10 seasons somehow. Scioscia leads the way in WAR (with 23.7), with Guillen coming in second (15.9).

While we don’t have a ton of data, it does appear that there’s no relation whatsoever in recent history between being a great player and becoming a good manager. From the minors, Ryne Sandberg weeps.

1970s — Average playing career: 9.8 seasons — War: 70.4

Mgr	Played in MLB	WAR	W	L	W-L%	Plyof App	WSwon	Player/Manager
Mike Hargrove	as player	30	1188	1173	0.503	5	0
Phil Garner	as player	26.9	985	1054	0.483	2	0
Art Howe	as player	11.9	1129	1137	0.498	3	0
Bruce Bochy	as player	2	1360	1376	0.497	5	1
Tom Kelly	as player	-0.4	1140	1244	0.478	2	2

The players who began their careers in 1970 and became 900+ win managers (combined record of 5,802-5,984) weren’t as successful as the 1980s group. Together the ‘70s PTMs have three World Series, but only one (Mike Hargrove) has a .500+ winning percentage and he sits at .503. That said, the others are reasonably close with Tom Kelly being the furthest away from even at .478. It’s interesting in a clearly-doesn’t-mean-anything-sort-of-way that the highest WAR and best win% match-up and so on. Poor Tom Kelly.

This group fared a bit better when it came to their playing careers, though. Hargrove and Phil Garner put together 25+ WAR careers and played for 12 and 16 years respectively. Art Howe played for 11 years and accumulated 11.9 WAR. While Bochy wasn’t very good (2 WAR), he did play for nine seasons. Tom Kelly is the black sheep of the group, again, playing just one season.

1960s — Average playing career: 11.7 seasons — War: 173.1

Mgr	Played in MLB	WAR	W	L	W-L%	Plyof App	WSwon	Player/Manager
Joe Torre	as player	55.6	2326	1997	0.538	15	4	plyr/mgr: 1977
Jim Fregosi	as player	46.1	1028	1095	0.484	2	0
Dusty Baker	as player	34.8	1484	1367	0.521	5	0
Davey Johnson	as player	24.5	1188	931	0.561	5	1
Lou Piniella	as player	11.4	1835	1713	0.517	7	1
Bobby Cox	as player	1	2504	2001	0.556	16	1
Bobby Valentine	as player	0.8	1117	1072	0.51	2	0
Jimy Williams	as player	-0.1	910	790	0.535	2	0
Tony LaRussa	as player	-1	2728	2365	0.536	14	3

A whopping nine players began their careers in 1960 and went on to manage ball clubs to 900+ wins. The group was pretty successful: 15,120-13,331, with 10 World Series (thank you Joe Torre and Tony LaRussa).

This group also brings the first potential Hall of Fame player in Torre and two other well above average players in Jim Fregosi and Dusty Baker. In addition, Davey Johnson had a fine and long career, while Lou Piniella played for 18 seasons. There were some duds as players: LaRussa (-1 WAR), Jimy Williams (-0.1 WAR), Bobby Cox (1 WAR) and Bobby Valentine (0.8 WAR). Still, the group averaged nearly 12 seasons as major leaguers.

1950s — Average playing career: 10.4 seasons — War: 169

Mgr	Played in MLB	WAR	W	L	W-L%	Plyof App	WSwon	Player/Manager
Frank Robinson HOF	as player	107.4	1065	1176	0.475	0	0	plyr/mgr: 1975-1976
Felipe Alou	as player	39.4	1033	1021	0.503	1	0
Bill Virdon	as player	15.6	995	921	0.519	3	0
Billy Martin	as player	3.7	1253	1013	0.553	5	1
Dick Williams HOF	as player	3.2	1571	1451	0.52	5	2
Whitey Herzog HOF	as player	2.6	1281	1125	0.532	6	1
Chuck Tanner	as player	-0.4	1352	1381	0.495	1	1
Tom Lasorda HOF	as player	-1.1	1599	1439	0.526	7	2
Sparky Anderson HOF	as player	-1.4	2194	1834	0.545	7	3

The nine players who began their careers in the 1950s won 10 World Series and posted a 12,343-11,361 record. Frank Robinson is really the only poor manager in the group. Chuck Tanner, who also had a sub-.500 winning percentage, at least won a World Series and was just barely under .500 (1,352-1,381).

That said, bringing Frank Robinson into the fold gives us the first no-doubt Hall of Famer who went on to win 900+ games as a manager. However, the rest of the group is pretty inauspicious. Felipe Alou had the second longest career and second most WAR. However, aside from him and potentially Bill Virdon, it’s a pedestrian collection.

1940s — Average playing career: 11.2 seasons — War: 89.7

Mgr	Played in MLB	WAR	W	L	W-L%	Plyof App	WSwon	Player/Manager
Red Schoendienst HOF	as player	40.4	1041	955	0.522	2	1
Al Dark	as player	38.6	994	954	0.51	3	1
Bill Rigney	as player	7.4	1239	1321	0.484	1	0
Danny Murtaugh	as player	3.6	1115	950	0.54	5	2
Ralph Houk	as player	0	1619	1531	0.514	3	2
Gene Mauch	as player	-0.3	1902	2037	0.483	2	0

The six managers who began their careers in the 1940s had winning percentages between .483-.540. Together, they went 7,910-7,748 and won six World Series. Danny Murtaugh seems to have been the most successful (.540 with two World Series) but he had the third shortest tenure and only fourth most wins.

That said, Bill Rigney was clearly the worst, as his average yearly finish was fifth place. Oddly, this group’s average yearly finish was between 3.3 and 5.2, whereas seven of the nine managers from the 1950s group averaged in the 2s.

This is the first set of players who all had at least eight seasons of pro-ball. That said, only Red Schoendienst and Al Dark had careers of any note. Altogether, they averaged nearly 15 WAR, but that is entirely the product of Schoendienst (40.4) and Dark (38.6)

1930s — Average playing career: 8 seasons — War: 56.3

Mgr	Played in MLB	WAR	W	L	W-L%	Plyof App	WSwon	Player/Manager
Lou Boudreau HOF	as player	56	1162	1224	0.487	1	1	plyr/mgr: 1942-1952
Paul Richards	as player	0.3	923	901	0.506	0	0
Walter Alston HOF	as player	0	2040	1613	0.558	7	4

Only Walter Alston, who won four World Series and was nearly 430 games over .500, can be considered a top notch manager. Lou Boudreau had a below .500 record and his team’s average finish was barely higher than fifth place. Paul Richards wasn’t much better than .500, as he was 923-901.

If Alston carried the group managerially, Boudreau carried them in terms of playing careers. Boudreau played for 15 years and accumulated 56 WAR. Combined, Richards and Alston played for nine seasons and accumulated 0.3 WAR.

For all intents and purposes, Richards played from 1932-1935. He came back from 1943-1946 as baseball was devoid of talent due to the War. Oddly, Richards might have been a better player during the second stretch: he hit .231/.313/.310 with 1.2 WAR while during the first part of his career he hit .216/.285/.281 and was a -0.9 WAR player. Richards was a no-hit catcher who could lead a pitching staff. He is credited with turning Dutch Leonard’s career around by suggesting he learn the knuckleball.

Meanwhile, Alston appeared in just one game, got one at bat and struck out on three pitches (reportedly one strike was a long foul ball). He was subbing in for Johnny Mize who was run out of the game. He wasn’t much better with the glove as he made an error in his two fielding chances.

1920s — Average playing career: 16 seasons — War: 88.2

Mgr	Played in MLB	WAR	W	L	W-L%	Plyof App	WSwon	Player/Manager
Joe Cronin HOF	as player	62.5	1236	1055	0.54	2	0	plyr/mgr: 1933-1945
Al Lopez HOF	as player	13.5	1410	1004	0.584	2	0
Chuck Dressen	as player	8.6	1008	973	0.509	2	0
Leo Durocher HOF	as player	3.6	2008	1709	0.54	3	1	plyr/mgr: 1939-1945

This is an odd bunch. Combined, the four managed teams to a 5,662-4,741 record, yet just one World Series victory. The managerial star of the group, Al Lopez, won five pennants and his team’s average finish was 2.4. Leo Durocher claimed the World Series and won 3,739 games. This is the first group with significant player-managers, as, combined, Durocher and Joe Cronin player-managed for nearly 20 seasons.

While the group averaged 16 seasons in their playing careers, Cronin was the only real successful player. Lopez was a solid catcher who caught the most games in baseball history until Gary Carter broke his record, but was just a 13.5 WAR guy over 19 seasons. Durocher similarly hung around without doing much (3.6 WAR).

1910s — Average playing career: 16.7 seasons — War: 181.6

Mgr	Played in MLB	WAR	W	L	W-L%	Plyof App	WSwon	Player/Manager
Frankie Frisch HOF	as player	74.8	1138	1078	0.514	1	1	plyr/mgr: 1933-1937
Jimmy Dykes	as player	28.1	1406	1541	0.477	0	0	plyr/mgr: 1934-1939
Billy Southworth HOF	as player	20.3	1044	704	0.597	4	2	plyr/mgr: 1929
Casey Stengel HOF	as player	18.7	1905	1842	0.508	10	7
Steve O’Neill	as player	17.4	1040	821	0.559	1	1
Bucky Harris HOF	as player	12.8	2158	2219	0.493	3	2	plyr/mgr: 1924-1931
Charlie Grimm	as player	9.5	1287	1067	0.547	3	0	plyr/mgr: 1932-1936

The older we get, the more player-managers appear: five of the seven managers in this group were player-managers. Together, they won 13 World Series and had a 9,978-9,272, aided mostly by Billy Southworth (1,044-704), Charlie Grimm (1,287-1,067) and Steve O’Neil (1,040-821). While Frankie Frisch and Casey Stengel were fine managers, they didn’t have the year-in, year-out regular season success of the others.

As managers, these guys were tremendous, as players, not so much. While they averaged nearly 17 MLB seasons, Frisch was, really, the only accomplished player. Southworth and Jimmy Dykes were fine regulars but did nothing of incredible note in their careers. If you take Frisch out of the equation, the group played 98 seasons and accumulated 106.8 WAR.

1900s — Average playing career: 12 seasons — War: 38.2

Mgr	Played in MLB	WAR	W	L	W-L%	Plyof App	WSwon	Player/Manager
Miller Huggins HOF	as player	35.7	1413	1134	0.555	6	3	plyr/mgr: 1913-1916
Bill McKechnie HOF	as player	2.5	1896	1723	0.524	4	2	plyr/mgr: 1915

Just two players started their careers in the 1900s and went on to win 900+ games as managers – but boy did they. Combined, Bill McKechnie and Miller Huggins went 3,309-2,857 and won five World Series.

Huggins was, by far, the better player though. Blessed with the knowledge that making an out was a bad thing, Huggins routinely led the league in walks, finishing with a .265/.382/.314 line. Meanwhile McKechnie was good in just two of his 11 seasons. He finished as a .251/.301/.313 hitter. Huggins was also the better manager. His teams finished higher in the standings, had a higher winning percentage and he won more pennants and World Series.

1800s — Average Playing Career: 16.7 seasons — WAR: 399.4

Mgr	Played in MLB	WAR	W	L	W-L%	Plyof App	WSwon	Player/Manager
Cap Anson HOF	as player	99.5	1295	947	0.578	0	0	plyr/mgr: 1875-1897
Fred Clarke HOF	as player	73.4	1602	1181	0.576	2	1	plyr/mgr: 1897-1915
Frank Chance HOF	as player	49.5	946	648	0.593	4	2	plyr/mgr: 1905-1914
John McGraw HOF	as player	49.3	2763	1948	0.586	9	3	plyr/mgr: 1899-1906
Clark Griffith HOF	as player	49	1491	1367	0.522	0	0	plyr/mgr: 1901-1914
Hughie Jennings HOF	as player	46.4	1184	995	0.543	3	0	plyr/mgr: 1907-1918
Ned Hanlon HOF	as player	14.5	1313	1164	0.53	0	0	plyr/mgr: 1889-1892
Wilbert Robinson HOF	as player	12.3	1399	1398	0.5	2	0	plyr/mgr: 1902
Connie Mack HOF	as player	4.5	3731	3948	0.486	8	5	plyr/mgr: 1894-1896
Harry Wright HOF	as player	1	1225	885	0.581	0	0	plyr/mgr: 1871-1877

Five managers in this group had winning percentages above .576 – that’s astounding. As a collective, they were 16,949-14,481. While they had solid regular season success, they brought home just 11 World Series. Of course the first Series wasn’t until 1903 and many of these men began their managerial careers significantly before that.

As players, Cap Anson and Fred Clarke led the way, but Clark Griffith, Hughie Jennings, John McGraw and Frank Chance all had considerable MLB careers. In reality, Wilbert Robinson and Ned Hanlon were merely average players for their respective careers and Harry Wright was the only suboptimal player. This group averaged nearly 40 WAR as players.

_____________________________________________

Surprisingly the 900 wins or more managers don’t skew a ton to baseball’s infancy, but are evenly spread out over the first 70 or so years. However, it seems clear that the better players who became 900 win or more managers started their careers in the early days.

Players who became managers and started their career between 1871 and 1919 accumulated 619.2 WAR. Meanwhile players who began their careers between 1925 and 1947 accumulated 234.2 WAR, players who began their careers between 1950 and 1969 accumulated 342.1 WAR and players who began their careers after 1973 accumulated 90.4 WAR. In total, players who started their careers before 1920 and went on to win 900 games as managers accounted for 619.2 WAR, while the rest accounted for 666.7 WAR.

In addition, 22 of the 57 managers with 900+ wins were player-managers at one point. However, 17 of those 22 began their playing careers before 1920. With players having the chance to play and manage at the same time, it’s apparent that the managers with the most wins in MLB history who were also Hall of Fame type players skewed mightily toward the early parts of baseball history.

March 28, 2012

Opening Day: Warm weather helps

Years ago, I had a good job that required extensive traveling. During the 1970s taking an airplane from New York to, for example, Chicago was something to look forward to. The three major airlines that served Chicago—United, American and the old TWA, offered flights that left every hour. As your taxi pulled up to La Guardia, you looked at your watch, determined which flight you could make and bought your ticket at the gate.

Once on board, the stewardess (as they were then called) treated even coach passengers with a certain amount of dignity. While en route we ate, if not haute cuisine, at least something warm and free.

One of the best features of my job was that I made my own schedule.
During April I attended as many Opening Days as I could. I’d catch the Mets and the Yankees at home and then, with no trouble at all, go out of town to see a third. This, don’t forget, was pre-cell phone and in an era where job security, assuming you carried your own weight, still existed.

So it was that I found myself in Chicago on April 15, 1975 to see the White Sox play the Texas Rangers. During the 1970s the White Sox were nothing special. But that year, Bill Veeck had purchased the team—again and just before it was relocated in Seattle. Chicago was abuzz with enthusiasm that somehow the team could be restored a competitive level. The 1975 White Sox never lived up to the fans’ early hopes. The Pale Hose finished in fifth place, barely ahead of the California Angels but 22.5 games behind the Oakland Athletics.

In retrospect, no one should have been surprised. The Sox had pretty good pitching with Jim Kaat (20-14) Wilbur Wood (16-20) and an emerging Goose Gossage but not much offense. Deron Johnson’s 18 home runs lead the Sox.

Nevertheless, this was April and spirits were high. The Sox had opened poorly, but not calamitously, on the road. After losing two of three to Oakland and California, the Comiskey Park opener was set for Tuesday during the season’s second week.

Veeck walked through the stands, peg leg in place, to shake hands with as many people as he could. The old master talked the White Sox up with his typical enthusiasm. The problem was that only 20,000 showed up.

Those were the among the bravest individuals to ever set foot in a baseball park. I can never recall being colder for longer than that day at Comiskey. According to the weather bureau, the temperature hit 45 degrees but the wild chill, aided by freezing rain and snow flurries, made it seem like 20.

Sensible people would have left after the third inning. By then, you could say you “had gone” to Opening Day; no need to elaborate. But our group included White Sox die hards. And unfortunately, the game see sawed back and forth. The Sox prevailed in, wouldn’t you know it, extra innings, 6-5 in eleven frames played out over a frigid 3:51. I can’t remember a single thing about the game except the elation I felt when Tony Muser hit into a game ending double play to quash the mild threat the White Sox had mounted to tie it up.

By Wednesday, I was still thawing out.

March 27, 2012

Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? Andy Pettitte

Claim to Fame: Andy Pettitte was an anchor of the Yankees 1990s dynasty, rarely their best pitcher but always a reliable arm. He pitched much of the next decade with the Bombers, a three-year stint with his hometown Houston breaking up 13 seasons in New York. Pettitte has won 240 regular season games, made three all-star teams, and finished in the top six in Cy Young voting five times, but his legacy has been forged in October, where has won an MLB record 19 postseason games and more World Series games (five) than anyone who’s pitched in the last 30 years. Now, he’s emerging from retirement after a one-year hiatus, returning to the Bronx to add to those totals and help the Yankees back to the Fall Classic.

Current Hall of Fame eligibility: If Pettitte plays for the Yankees this year he will have to wait five years before becoming eligible on the Baseball Writers Association of America ballot. But if this un-retirement experiment crashes before it gets off the ground and Pettitte fails to appear in a Major League game, he’ll appear on the ballot in 2015.

Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? Pettitte supporters like to point out that every pitcher who’s more than 100 games above .500 for his career is enshrined in the Hall of Fame. Guys like Pettitte, however, are exactly the reason wins and winning percentage are becoming less and less valued in player evaluation. That Pettitte won a higher percentage of his decisions than Greg Maddux doesn’t make the longtime Yankee a better pitcher than Maddux; it just means he played for more great teams. In fact, Pettitte has never pitched for a sub-.500 club in his 16-year career, while Maddux made over 200 starts for teams that ended up losing more often than they won.

More telling than Pettitte’s impressive winning percentage is his only-respectable 117 career ERA+ over 16 seasons of relative durability. That ERA+ is better than those of four of the past five Major League pitchers inducted into the Hall of Fame, although each in that quartet threw drastically more career innings than did Pettitte. Of the eight Hall of Famers within 150 innings of Pettitte’s total, only the undeniably under-qualified Chief Bender owns a worse ERA+. The other seven are all at least ten points higher in the category.

With Cooperstown seemingly getting more selective with their admission of pitchers, Pettitte’s fate might be similar to that of Orel Hershiser, whose career numbers were similar to Pettitte’s but not good enough to preserve his spot on the Hall of Fame ballot for more than two years. After a long drought of Hall of Fame pitchers (no current HOFer pitched after 1993), a wave of worthy hurlers confronts the BBWAA next year. Roger Clemens may not make it to Cooperstown any time soon due to alleged steroid use, but Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, and Pedro Martinez are locks, and Mike Mussina, Curt Schilling, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz all have strong cases as well. Pettitte’s candidacy looks less convincing than all of the above, and voters may be hesitant to vote for a marginally-qualified starter immediately after supporting a mass induction of well-qualified starters.

Pettitte could potentially be helped by two of the same effects that are enabling Jack Morris’s absurd Hall of Fame candidacy. Like Morris, Pettitte won more games than any other pitcher in a given decade (148 from 2000-2009), and like Morris, Pettitte made a name for himself in the playoffs. Pettitte’s stats are more impressive than Morris’s, and I would support Pettitte’s Hall of Fame bid long before I would consider supporting Morris’s, but I’m not sold on the arguments on which their candidacies hinge. As discussed earlier, wins are a product of the team as much as the pitcher, and a decade is nothing but a random period of time and shouldn’t be used to judge a career any more than a random 13-year stretch should. Postseason stats are even more dependent of team success, as in order to compile such numbers a player’s teammates need to be good enough to take him to the playoffs. No one should make the Hall of Fame because he got to the postseason more than his peers and pitched adequately once there.

So, with stats that seem short of the Cooperstown threshold and a case based on arguments I don’t buy, Andy Pettitte doesn’t get my hypothetical Hall of Fame vote, although I wouldn’t be too upset were he to be elected. The BBWAA’s treatment of starting pitchers is difficult to predict (as I’ve covered before, Jack Morris’s near induction contrasted with Kevin Brown’s immediate dismissal from the ballot is some sort of travesty), but I imagine the above “qualifications” will garner Pettitte some degree of support. Then again, irrationally vindictive writers might withhold their votes due to Pettitte’s admission of HGH use. Assuming the Yankees deem him a capable Major League starter, however, the lefty’s career appears not to be over. A successful comeback and a good season in 2012 and beyond could alter the Hall of Fame discussion. For now, Pettitte’s worthiness and likelihood of induction remain unclear.

Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? is a regular feature here.

Others in this series: Adrian Beltre, Al Oliver, Alan Trammell, Albert Belle, Albert Pujols, Allie Reynolds, Barry Bonds, Barry Larkin, Bert Blyleven, Bill King, Billy Martin, Bobby Grich, Cecil Travis, Chipper Jones, Closers, Craig Biggio, Curt Flood, Dan Quisenberry, Darrell Evans, Dave Parker, Dick Allen, Don Mattingly,Don Newcombe,Dwight Evans, George Steinbrenner, George Van Haltren, Gus Greenlee, Harold Baines, Harry Dalton, Jack Morris, Jeff Bagwell, Jim Edmonds, Joe Carter, Joe Posnanski, John Smoltz, Johnny Murphy, Jose Canseco, Juan Gonzalez, Keith Hernandez, Ken Caminiti, Kevin Brown, Larry Walker, Manny Ramirez, Maury Wills, Mel Harder, Moises Alou, Pete Browning,Phil Cavarretta, Rafael Palmeiro, Roberto Alomar, Rocky Colavito,Roger Maris, Ron Cey, Ron Guidry, Ron Santo, Sammy Sosa, Smoky Joe Wood, Steve Garvey,Ted Simmons, Thurman Munson, Tim Raines, Tony Oliva, Vince Coleman, Will Clark

March 26, 2012

Alternate dream teams

It’s been a long time coming, but after nearly a month, the end of voting for the BPP All-Time Dream Project is less than two days out. The polls close Tuesday at 9 p.m. PST, and for anyone who hasn’t done so already, it’s not too late to pick a nine-player lineup. As I write these words mid-day Monday, votes are still coming in thanks to an SF Chronicle blog post today from one of my mentors, Peter Hartlaub.

I’ve also been emailing in recent weeks with longtime Sports Illustrated writer and editor Robert Creamer, who gave a memorable interview here in January. I’d hoped to get some words from Creamer for the final results post of my dream project on April 15, and while he declined for personal reasons, he got me thinking about something else: alternate lineups. In our emails back and forth, I gave Creamer a peak at the vote leaders, and without giving too much away, he noted some lack of racial diversity among the picks. Creamer had an idea for me yesterday, writing:

how about adding an all white vs an all black team? or something could be stimulating. go a litle nutty — how about an all righthanded white team against an all lefthanded black team. kind of nutty but baseball is supposed to be fun.

I agree, wholeheartedly. One of the overarching things I try to do here is strive to keep things fun and celebrate the best of baseball. I see it as a good use for a blog, and while I don’t hesitate to write about less-positive subject matter when necessary, I prefer to keep the focus here positive when I can.

In this spirit, here are a few alternate dream lineups. Please feel free to add more in the comments section.

The all-California native or raised team

P – Randy Johnson
C – Gary Carter
1B – Eddie Murray
2B – Joe Morgan
3B – Evan Longoria
SS – Troy Tulowitzki
RF – Frank Robinson
CF – Joe DiMaggio
LF – Ted Williams

The all-5’9″ or below team

P – Bobby Shantz
C – Roy Campanella
1B – Matty Alou
2B – David Eckstein
3B – Mel Ott
SS – Phil Rizzuto
RF – Yogi Berra
CF – Bob Caruthers
LF – Tim Raines
PH – Eddie Gaedel

The all Negro League players who never appeared in the majors team

P – John Donaldson
C – Josh Gibson
1B – Buck Leonard
2B – Frank Grant
3B – Judy Johnson
SS – Willie Wells
RF – John Beckwith
CF – Oscar Charleston
LF – Turkey Stearnes

The all-other-sports team

P – Bob Gibson or Fergie Jenkins, who played for the Harlem Globetrotters or Tom Glavine, who was drafted by the Los Angeles Kings of the NHL in 1984
C – Joe Mauer, named a USA Today high school football player of the year in 2000
1B – Todd Helton, who quarterbacked at Tennessee before Peyton Manning
2B – Jackie Robinson, a track and football standout at UCLA
3B – Drew Henson, who seemingly had the talent to be a star NFL quarterback or a cornerstone for the Yankees but fell short in both capacities
SS – Dick Groat, who played in the NBA before helping the Pirates win the 1960 World Series
RF – Dave Winfield, drafted in four sports
CF – Willie Mays, an accomplished punter and quarterback in high school football; he also averaged 17 points a game in high school basketball
LF – Bo Jackson

March 23, 2012

Managers with the Most Wins and Their Playing Careers Part I, an Overview

Let’s get this out of the way: team wins are an imperfect way to measure managerial success.

Throughout this series, we’ll look at different ways to ascertain a good manager. While many (from GM to utility infielder) have a hand in a win, certainly managers who stuck around long enough to manage teams that won the most games in Major League Baseball history were, for the most part, successful. Hopefully, using bulk wins (and as a byproduct years managed) will shed some light on the types of players who become successful managers.

Somewhat surprising: of the managers with 900 wins or more, just seven of the 64 never reached the majors. Of course, those seven boast the two managers with the best winning percentage: Joe McCarthy and Frank Selee. In fact, with Earl Weaver having the seventh best winning percentage, non-MLBers claim three of the top seven winning percentage spots.

In addition, John McNamara is the only member of the 900 win club with no MLB experience who posted a sub-.500 winning percentage, although Jim Leyland’s record is 1588-1585 and, if Buck Showalter manages the Orioles much longer, he could end up with a losing record (he’s 985-949).

Turning to those who played, the great majority of players turned managers (PTMs) with 900+ wins had reasonably long playing careers. Just Walter Alston, Sparky Anderson and Tom Kelly played only one year in the bigs, while Bobby Cox and Jimy Williams played parts of two seasons. Tommy Lasorda pitched in parts of three seasons – and that’s the group with less than six years in the majors. In fact, the average playing career of this group was 12.9 seasons.

That’s not to say the group represents the best players in baseball history, as they average just 22.6 WAR. In fact, 25 of the 57 managers recorded less than 10 WAR. Terry Francona comes in at the bottom with -3.7 WAR, but he’s joined by seven others with negative WAR. On the flip side, seven players were worth 55.6 or more WAR. That group includes six Hall of Famers (Frank Robinson, Cap Anson, Frankie Frisch, Fred Clarke, Joe Cronin and Lou Boudreau) and one future Hall of Famer in Joe Torre.

Mgr	Played in MLB	WAR	W	L	W-L%
Billy Southworth HOF	as player	20.3	1044	704	0.597
Frank Chance HOF	as player	49.5	946	648	0.593
John McGraw HOF	as player	49.3	2763	1948	0.586
Al Lopez HOF	as player	13.5	1410	1004	0.584
Harry Wright HOF	as player	1	1225	885	0.581
Cap Anson HOF	as player	99.5	1295	947	0.578
Fred Clarke HOF	as player	73.4	1602	1181	0.576
Davey Johnson	as player	24.5	1188	931	0.561
Steve O’Neill	as player	17.4	1040	821	0.559
Walter Alston HOF	as player	0	2040	1613	0.558

The four PTMs with 900+ wins and the highest winning percentages were pedestrian to above average baseball players: Billy Southworth, Frank Chance, John McGraw and Al Lopez. The fifth member of this group, Harry Wright, accumulated just one WAR in seven seasons. But, immediately after him, we have Anson and Clarke, one immortal and one solid Hall of Famer. Davey Johnson is next, followed by Steve O’Neil and Alston. Bobby Cox was right behind Alston on the list.

Of the ten 900+ win managers with the highest winning percentage, two were worth more than 73 WAR in their careers; two were worth 49-50 WAR; two were worth 20-25 WAR; two were worth 13-17.5 WAR; and the last two were worth 0 and 1 WAR. It seems it didn’t take a great player to become one of the managers with the best winning percentage and 900+ wins.

Similarly scattered: the playing careers were somewhat evenly distributed throughout the 900+ win managers (yet, for obvious reasons, skewed a tad to baseball’s past):

10 managers began their playing careers before 1900;
Nine began their careers between 1904-1919;
13 began their careers between 1920-1947;
Nine began in the 50s; nine began their careers in the 60s; and
Seven began their careers after 1970.

It is somewhat surprising that as many 900+ win managers began their careers during the 50s and 60s as began their careers before 1920.

That said, six of the seven managers in the group with the best winning percentages started their careers in 1913 or before, with five starting their careers before 1900. Of the top 10 by winning percentage, only Al Lopez (1928), Johnson (1965) and Alston (1936) began careers after 1913. It appears the best of the best came from PTMs in baseball’s infancy.

Mgr	Played in MLB	WAR	W	L	W-L%
Billy Southworth HOF	as player	20.3	1044	704	0.597
Frank Chance HOF	as player	49.5	946	648	0.593
John McGraw HOF	as player	49.3	2763	1948	0.586
Al Lopez HOF	as player	13.5	1410	1004	0.584
Harry Wright HOF	as player	1	1225	885	0.581
Cap Anson HOF	as player	99.5	1295	947	0.578
Fred Clarke HOF	as player	73.4	1602	1181	0.576
Davey Johnson	as player	24.5	1188	931	0.561
Steve O’Neill	as player	17.4	1040	821	0.559
Walter Alston HOF	as player	0	2040	1613	0.558

Meanwhile of the ten 900+ win managers with the worst winning percentages, four began their playing careers after 1950 and another two began their careers in the 1940s – only three began their careers before 1920. Expanding this pool to the 13 managers with sub-.500 winning percentages gives us seven managers who began their playing careers after 1950.

Before looking at the data, it would have been natural to assume that managers in the past stuck around more as there was less scrutiny, pressure and money on the line. However, at least of the managers with the most wins, the opposite is the case. Aside from Connie Mack who is special given that he owned the team, the majority of poor performing managers who stuck around long enough to win a ton of games were from more modern times.

It’s hard to understand exactly why these managers had such staying power as they had just four World Series between them and none averaged a divisional finish above third. In addition, aside from Robinson and possibly Boudreau, none were particularly outstanding ballplayers.

This much is clear: the most successful managers in terms of wins and winning percentage did their work 100 or so years ago. In addition, how good a manager was as a player had little bearing on their ability as a manager, as those with the most managerial success tended not to be stars.

March 22, 2012

Any Player/Any Era: Bobby Grich

What he did: For an even longer take on the enormity of Bobby Grich’s career, check out Graham’s Does he Belong in the Hall of Fame piece on Grich.

For whatever reason, some players lack the mystique or aura of great players, while some flawed players have that “it factor” that creates an undeserved reputation (*ahem* Jack Morris, Jim Rice, etc.).

Unfortunately, Grich falls into the forgotten category, despite walking 1,087 times, the 28th most by a righty.

In addition, he hit the 11th most HRs by a second baseman. If you want to talk about clutch, well, four of Grich’s HRs came in a 1-0 game. This feat was done five times by Ted Williams. Bobby Bonds, Jim Wynn and Dwight Evans are the only other players in history to do it four times. That’s the list of guys with this awesome display of “clutchiness.”

Grich was a powerful and adept fielder at second base, who knew how to get on base. He finished with a .371 OBP. From 1970-1986, only Joe Morgan hit more HRs among second baseman and only Morgan, Rod Carew, Ron Hunt and Willie Randolph posted a better OBP.

Grich just picked a bad time to peak, as, arguably, his best season was the strike-shortened 1981. In just 100 games, Grich hit 22 HRs (to lead the league) and batted .304/.378/.543. He became the first AL second baseman to lead the league in HRs since Nap Lajoie in 1901 and the first to lead either league since Rogers Hornsby in 1929. He also led the league in slugging.

In addition to batting prowess, Grich’s .984 fielding percentage is near the top all time at second and his 71 total zone score is seventh best.

Perhaps, if Grich had come through in the small samples of his post-season chances (98 plate appearances), he’d be in the Hall of Fame, or at least in the discussion.

Era he might have thrived in: Grich would thrive in any era, but it’s likely his career started just a shade too early. His skills and abilities would have fit in perfectly in the early 1990s, specifically on the Atlanta Braves (heck, he’d even get to suffer through another strike-shortened season).

Why: While the Braves were gobbling up pennants and division crowns, the club’s second basemen, predominantly Mark Lemke, were providing absolutely nothing with the stick. As Lemke was busy batting .250 with a .315 OBP, Grich would post a .274/.379/.437 line with the Braves. He’d add multiple 30 HR campaigns and be an offensive stalwart along with Javy Lopez, Fred McGriff, Chipper Jones and others.

In 1997, the Braves could have put out a line-up consisting of Kenny Lofton-Grich-Jones-McGriff-Lopez-Ryan Klesko-Jeff Blauser-Michael Tucker. Those guys would have tested a pitching staff a ton, as multiple players worked counts and posted amazing walk rates.

On the Braves, there’s a solid chance Grich would challenge for MVPs: his 1979 season translated would be .293/.364/.535 with 30 HRs and 100 RBIs. Those numbers on a contender from a second basemen would draw considerable attention. In addition, his 1981 translated would be .315/.392/.561 with 35 HRs and 100 RBIs.

With Grich in tow, who knows how many World Series Bobby Cox and the Braves would have. At the least, Grich would have had more play-off appearances to prove his mettle and potentially build his myth.

Any player/Any era is a Thursday feature here that looks at how a player might have done in an era besides his own.

Others in this series: Al Simmons, Albert Pujols, Babe Ruth, Bad News Rockies, Barry Bonds, Billy Beane, Billy Martin, Bob Caruthers, Bob Feller, Bob Watson, Bobby Veach, Carl Mays, Cesar Cedeno, Charles Victory Faust, Chris von der Ahe, Denny McLain, Dom DiMaggio, Don Drysdale, Doug Glanville, Eddie Lopat, Elmer Flick, Eric Davis, Frank Howard, Fritz Maisel, Gary Carter, Gavvy Cravath, Gene Tenace, George W. Bush (as commissioner), George Case, George Weiss, Harmon Killebrew, Harry Walker, Home Run Baker, Honus Wagner, Hugh Casey, Ichiro Suzuki, Jack Clark, Jack Morris, Jackie Robinson, Jim Abbott, Jimmy Wynn, Joe DiMaggio, Joe Posnanski, Johnny Antonelli, Johnny Frederick, Josh Gibson, Josh Hamilton, Ken Griffey Jr., Lefty Grove, Lefty O’Doul, Major League (1989 film),Mark Fidrych, Matty Alou, Michael Jordan, Monte Irvin, Nate Colbert, Ollie Carnegie, Paul Derringer, Pedro Guerrero, Pedro Martinez, Pee Wee Reese, Pete Rose, Prince Fielder, Ralph Kiner, Rick Ankiel, Rickey Henderson,
Roberto Clemente, Rogers Hornsby, Sam Crawford, Sam Thompson, Sandy Koufax, Satchel Paige, Shoeless Joe Jackson, Spud Chandler, Stan Musial, Ted Williams, The Meusel Brothers, Tony Phillips, Ty Cobb, Vada Pinson, Wally Bunker, Wes Ferrell, Will Clark, Willie Mays

March 21, 2012

Phil Rizzuto: Great Player, Better Broadcaster

Our friends over at Seamheads.com had a great post about some of history’s most famous baseball voices. Included were Ernie Harwell, Red Barber, Mel Allen, Bob Prince and Vin Scully. I’ve heard them all. None held a candle to Phil Rizzuto who for 40 years did the New York Yankees’ color commentary.

For 15 of those years, I lived in New York and Rizzuto along with his numerous partners (Jerry Coleman, Frank Messer and Bill White) were my constant summer companions.

Rizzuto was a childhood hero for many reasons, most obviously because of his Italian heritage. The “Scooter,” as Rizzuto was universally known, was also Joe Di Maggio’s roommate. Di Maggio was another favorite…at least until I learned about the darker side of his character.

Years after I left New York for Seattle, I was traveling to Boston. Coincidentally, the Yankees were playing the Red Sox. As I checked into my small, out of the way hotel Rizzuto was walking through the lobby. I approached him, extended my hand which he shook firmly. I told Rizzuto that I had spent countless nights listening to him broadcast Yankee games and that his accounts gave me more pleasure than I could express. Luckily, I remembered his wife Cora’s name so I was able to ask after her, too.

Rizzuto could have brushed me off after I had spoken my piece. Instead he engaged me in a long conversation about baseball in general and the Mariners specifically. And Rizzuto asked me questions about my family, my occupation and whether I was going to the game that night.

Although I had other plans, Rizzuto pulled out two tickets and gave them to me. And somehow it didn’t seem right not to use them. Compliments of the Scooter, I went.

I’ll confess that I wanted to ask him for his autograph but, you know, I was in my mid-30s. And after my visit with Rizzuto, I felt more like a friend than a fan.

White had a great story about what it was like to share the booth with Rizzuto. Once, hoping to clarify a complicated scoring decision, White looked over Rizzuto’s shoulder. In the Scooter’s score book was this notation: “W.W.” A confused White asked his partner what “W.W.” meant. Rizzuto replied: “Wasn’t watching.”

Phil himself told my favorite Rizzuto story at his Hall of Fame induction. Talking about his early career in the Class D Southern League, Rizzuto served grits at his hotel breakfast. Rizzuto, who grew up in Brooklyn, had never seen grits. Not wanting to eat them but also not wanting to leave them on his plate, Rizzuto said: “I put them in my pocket and walked out.” Phil got a huge laugh.

For more Rizzuto humor, read O Holy Cow! The Selected Verse of Phil Rizzuto.

March 20, 2012

Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? Johnny Murphy

Claim to fame: I’ll start by thanking broadcaster Len Berman for including a link to the BPP All-Time Dream Project in a recent mass email. The link led to votes from about 50 people, including the son of former New York Yankees pitcher Johnny Murphy who emailed and suggested I add a relief pitcher category. I’ve chosen not to do this for the same reason I don’t have a designated hitter or bench players in the project– I don’t want a way for people to jam extra players into their lineups, like sticking Willie Mays in center field and Mickey Mantle at DH. I want people having to make tough decisions. It’s a nine-player dream team for a reason.

That being said, I’m glad the email alerted me to Murphy, who pitched 13 years in the majors between 1932 and 1946, might have been baseball’s first great relief pitcher, and later was general manager of the New York Mets from 1964 until his death in 1970. I sent an email to Frank Graham Jr., whose father covered Murphy as a player. Graham has stories about being around those Bronx Bombers as a kid, and I asked if he’d crossed paths with Murphy. Graham replied:

No, I had no interaction with Fordham Johnny Murphy, though I do remember some of my dad’s ‘dugout’ columns where Lefty Gomez would make some wisecrack about how Murphy pulled him out of a jam so often that their names were being coupled like ham and eggs. That kind of connection was rare in those days, when relievers were often characterized as second-rate pitchers not good enough to make the starting rotation. Branch Rickey was one who thought the value of relief pitchers was overrated– in other words, good pitchers started a game and saved it as well.

Murphy tallied 107 saves in his playing career, similar to an early stolen base champ or Deadball Era home run leader in that he played in a time before his marquee stat was favored, and the more that saves aggregators like Lee Smith, Mariano Rivera, and Trevor Hoffman come to glut the Hall of Fame ballot, the more pioneering relievers like Murphy may be forgotten. That’s a shame, and there ought to be a way for Cooperstown to remedy this.

Current Hall of Fame eligibility: Under new voting rules that took effect prior to the 2011 election, Murphy can be considered for Cooperstown by the Pre-Integration Era section of the Veterans Committee. It meets once every three years and will convene at the Winter Meetings in December.

Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? Lest there be any confusion, let me be clear: The point of this column isn’t too mount a case that Murphy needs to be enshrined. I’m a big Hall person, though to me, there are simply too many other players to be honored first, and that includes a couple early relievers. In general, I think Cooperstown has made incomplete note of pioneer closers, relying too much on career saves totals. It gives short shrift to greats like Sparky Lyle and Dan Quisenberry, both men who dominated in their day and would get my vote sooner than Smith.

I don’t feel as strongly about Murphy. Maybe it’s that he played in pinstripes, and plenty of very good Yankees are already enshrined from Waite Hoyt to Joe Gordon to Phil Rizzuto and others. Murphy’s stats also simply don’t beg a plaque, from a 3.50 lifetime ERA and 118 ERA+ to 14.7 career WAR and 1.367 WHIP. Lyle, Quisenberry, and a number of other closers trump those numbers. And I don’t know if Murphy was an executive long enough for it to matter for the Veterans Committee, which considers a man’s total contribution to baseball. I could be wrong here, and if there’s something I’m missing, I encourage comments from anyone reading, including anyone from Murphy’s family.

Do I mean to knock Murphy? Certainly not. Just getting to play an important role on the Yankees of the ’30s and ’40s is awesome. And while I wouldn’t necessarily enshrine pioneer relievers like Murphy, they belong somewhere in the museum, just as I’d highlight early stolen base kings like Maury Wills or Deadball home run hitters like Gavvy Cravath. They all figure notably in baseball’s history. Maybe there’s a relief pitchers exhibit that can include Murphy, if one doesn’t exist already.

Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? is a regular feature here.

Others in this series: Adrian Beltre, Al Oliver, Alan Trammell, Albert Belle, Albert Pujols, Allie Reynolds, Barry Bonds, Barry Larkin, Bert Blyleven, Bill King, Billy Martin, Bobby Grich, Cecil Travis, Chipper Jones, Closers, Craig Biggio, Curt Flood, Dan Quisenberry, Darrell Evans, Dave Parker, Dick Allen, Don Mattingly,Don Newcombe,Dwight Evans, George Steinbrenner, George Van Haltren, Gus Greenlee, Harold Baines, Harry Dalton, Jack Morris, Jeff Bagwell, Jim Edmonds, Joe Carter, Joe Posnanski, John Smoltz, Jose Canseco, Juan Gonzalez, Keith Hernandez, Ken Caminiti, Kevin Brown, Larry Walker, Manny Ramirez, Maury Wills, Mel Harder, Moises Alou, Pete Browning,Phil Cavarretta, Rafael Palmeiro, Roberto Alomar, Rocky Colavito,Roger Maris, Ron Cey, Ron Guidry, Ron Santo, Sammy Sosa, Smoky Joe Wood, Steve Garvey,Ted Simmons, Thurman Munson, Tim Raines, Tony Oliva, Vince Coleman, Will Clark

March 19, 2012

The Hall of Very Good, According to wWAR

A while back, I created an alternate Hall of Fame called the Hall of wWAR. wWAR, or weighted wins above replacement, is a modification to the WAR statistic found at Baseball-Reference. It was adjusted, or weighted, for several factors like peak performance, playoff heroics, and season schedule length. It reduced every player in history to just one number—a purely objective value of how good their Hall of Fame case is. It wasn’t perfect, but it was fun.

I then dumped everyone out of the Hall of Fame and re-populated it just by wWAR. It was an interesting experiment, to say the least—63 players ended up getting booted (like Jim Rice, Catfish Hunter, and Rick Ferrell) while 63 were added (like Jeff Bagwell, Deacon White, and Dick Allen).

Since the Hall of wWAR is simply an ordered list of players, it makes it easy to sort and apply different cutoffs to make alternate Halls. For example, a while back on BPP I posted what a Small Hall would look like, according to wWAR. Today, I’ve got something a little different.

Our friends Sky Kalkman and Marc Normandin are heading up an eBook project called The Hall of Very Good (you should go pre-order now!). They promise to cover “the careers of baseball’s under-celebrated stars, from Ken Boyer to Rondell White.”

As I wait for the eBook, I thought I’d take a look at what a Hall of Very Good might look like, according to wWAR. There are currently 209 people voted into the Hall of Fame as MLB players. I decided our Hall of Very Good (by wWAR) should be the same size. So, I took the top 209 players, by wWAR, outside of the Hall of Fame.

I then excluded three members of the Hall of wWAR who are banned from the Hall of Fame—Pete Rose, Shoeless Joe Jackson, and Eddie Cicotte. I also excluded three Hall of Famers who were inducted for roles other than as a player—Al Spalding (who is the absolute best “player” outside of the Hall of Fame, by wWAR), John McGraw (also a member of the Hall of wWAR), and Candy Cummings (not in the Hall of wWAR, but at the Hall of Very Good level).

So, here is the Hall of Very Good, According to wWAR:
* denotes a member of the Hall of wWAR

Catcher:

Ted Simmons (98.3)*
Joe Torre (91.9)*
Thurman Munson (90.1)*
Gene Tenace (84.9)*
Charlie Bennett (82.5)*
Bill Freehan (80.5)*
Darrell Porter (71.5)
Wally Schang (70.1)
Jack Clements (59.2)

Personally, I believe Ted Simmons and Joe Torre absolutely belong in the Hall of Fame. Thurman Munson, to me, is right behind them. Tenace, Bennett, and Freehan aren’t quite as obvious, but each was supremely underrated. I would say that Tenace certainly had Hall of Fame talent. Had his teams realized exactly how valuable his skills were while he played, he would have played a lot more. That would have given him the plate appearances (he had only 5527) to be a no-doubt Hall of Famer. Gene Tenace, more than any of the other catchers, was screwed.

Darrell Porter, on the other hand, probably perfectly represents the Hall of Very Good. A good way of explaining how underrated Porter was is by pointing out he retired after hitting .265 and .238 in his final two seasons as a part timer. His OBPs, however, were .360 and .387—giving him OPS+ marks of 138 and 115.

Clearly, Porter had more to offer, but his skills weren’t valued in his day. He was a .247 hitter, but had a 113 OPS+ and was worth 40.6 WAR. His 1979 season was worth 8.4 WAR, showing he was capable of greatness. Like Tenace, given more of a chance (his 6570 plate appearances is relatively low) he might have produced Hall of Fame-level value.

First Base:

Jeff Bagwell (132.6)*
Dick Allen (98.1)*
Mark McGwire (91.3)*
Keith Hernandez (90.8)*
Rafael Palmeiro (89.6)*
John Olerud (84.0)*
Will Clark (83.3)*
Norm Cash (72.1)
Fred McGriff (70.8)
George Burns (68.7)
Dolph Camilli (64.7)
Gil Hodges (64.5)
Joe Start (59.3)
Mark Grace (59.2)
Ed Konetchy (58.1)
Jack Fournier (57.3)
Don Mattingly (57.1)
Fred Tenney (56.6)

If I could put any one player in the Hall of Fame, it would be Jeff Bagwell. Simply put, he is the best player not in. Dick Allen, Mark McGwire, and Rafael Palmeiro all clearly had Hall of Fame talent, but other issues have kept them out. McGwire admitted PED use, Palmeiro tested positive, and Allen… well, some people thought Allen was a jerk. Others thought the opposite. The truth is likely somewhere in between.

If you believe in the value of defense—and I do—then you think Keith Hernandez is a Hall of Famer. It is with John Olerid and Will Clark that we approach the borderline.

The pair rates ahead of Norm Cash and Fred McGriff by a good amount, and I tend to agree with that. You could put them all in the Hall and it really wouldn’t be any worse than it is now.

Gil Hodges simply doesn’t rate as a Hall of Famer by wWAR. This, of course, does not include his value as a manager. Don Mattingly also doesn’t stack up. However, if he ever wins a title as a manager, he’ll be able to make a Hodges-like dual-role case with the Vererans Committee.

Second Base:

Bobby Grich (99.9)*
Lou Whitaker (93.4)*
Ross Barnes (80.1)*
Willie Randolph (78.2)*
Cupid Childs (78.2)*
Hardy Richardson (69.2)
Fred Dunlap (66.2)
Chuck Knoblauch (65.3)
Larry Doyle (64.5)
Tony Phillips (62.8)
Buddy Myer (56.8)
Del Pratt (52.3)

Bobby Grich and Lou Whitaker are more deserving than several, if not most, second basemen in the Hall. Ross Barnes is interesting—his career totals are very low because he had a short career and played at a time of very short season lengths. He was the very best hitter in the National Association and was an adept fielder at a premium position. That should probably be good enough for induction.

Willie Randolph and Cupid Childs are much closer to the borderline. Hardy Richardson comes next after a somewhat substantial gap. Tony Phillips makes the Hall of wWAR despite never being selected as an All Star.

Third Base:

Sal Bando (93.0)*
Deacon White (92.2)*
Ken Boyer (87.0)*
Buddy Bell (84.2)*
Graig Nettles (82.5)*
Darrell Evans (78.3)*
Stan Hack (76.3)*
Robin Ventura (75.2)
Ezra Sutton (72.9)
Ron Cey (72.9)
Bob Elliott (71.3)
Ned Williamson (70.9)
Heinie Groh (65.6)
Lave Cross (60.4)
Toby Harrah (59.8)
Matt Williams (57.8)
Larry Gardner (55.6)
Denny Lyons (53.6)
Arlie Latham (52.8)

Before Ron Santo was inducted into the Hall of Fame, he was the best third baseman outside of the Hall, by a decent amount. Third base is one of the most poorly represented positions in the Hall of Fame, and several of the third basemen actually in the Hall don’t belong there.

The three that stand out by wWAR are Sal Bando, Deacon White, and Ken Boyer. I’d put all of them in. The next tier—Buddy Bell, Graig Nettles, and Darrell Evans (plus Stan Hack and Robin Ventura) could either be your Hall of Very Good, or also Hall of Famers. I’m split on this group. Ron Cey, I’d say, is a perfect representative of the Hall of Very Good.

Shortstop:

Bill Dahlen (113.2)*
Jack Glasscock (104.3)*
Alan Trammell (99.3)*
Jim Fregosi (68.9)
Herman Long (61.3)
Art Fletcher (60.2)
Ed McKean (58.9)
Vern Stephens (58.2)
Bert Campaneris (56.6)
Gil McDougald (53.5)
Roger Peckinpaugh (52.5)

Bill Dahlen, Alan Trammell, and Jack Glasscock all deserve to be in the Hall of Fame. After that, there’s a huge gap. Jim Fregosi and Company fit the Hall of Very Good description.

Left Field:

Tim Raines (89.8)*
Sherry Magee (84.8)*
Minnie Minoso (81.1)*
Harry Stovey (76.7)*
Jimmy Sheckard (73.9)
Bob Johnson (72.3)
Charlie Keller (72.2)
Jose Cruz (70.0)
Mike Smith (67.6)
Roy White (64.4)
Bobby Veach (63.1)
George Foster (62.0)
Augie Galan (60.9)
Albert Belle (58.6)

Tim Raines is the standout here, though Sherry Magee, Minnie Minoso, Harry Stovey, and even Bob Johnson have their ardent supporters.

I see Jose Cruz’s name here and I think he’s another perfect example of the Hall of Very Good. Some people think Albert Belle was a Hall of Famer, but really he’s on the Hall of Very Good borderline.

Center Field:

Jim Wynn (95.1)*
George Gore (82.9)*
Paul Hines (77.9)*
Cesar Cedeno (76.6)*
Willie Davis (75.9)
Tommy Leach (71.1)
Dale Murphy (70.2)
Bernie Williams (68.7)
Vada Pinson (68.4)
Chet Lemon (66.9)
Fred Lynn (66.8)
Mike Griffin (66.1)
Fielder Jones (65.5)
George Van Haltren (64.0)
Brett Butler (63.2)
Jimmy Ryan (61.7)
Lenny Dykstra (61.7)
Roy Thomas (61.0)
Ellis Burks (60.8)
Pete Browning (58.8)
Amos Otis (56.5)
Andy Van Slyke (55.8)
Wally Berger (55.5)
Devon White (54.4)
Ben Chapman (54.0)

What’s interesting is that the Hall of wWAR is very light in center field. But the Hall of Very Good (by wWAR) features an abundance. We see this same phenomenon with pitchers, but I’ll get to that.

Jimmy Wynn is way out in front here, by far. His numbers don’t stand out to the naked eye, but once they are park and era adjusted, he rates well within Hall of Fane territory. I’m honestly not sure any other center fielders deserve induction.

Many players scream “Hall of Very Good” here—Willie Davis, Bernie Williams, Vada Pinson, Fred Lynn, Chet Lemon, Brett Butler, Lenny Dykstra, Ellis Burks, Andy Van Slyke—the list goes on…

Right Field:

Larry Walker (98.8)*
Reggie Smith (84.8)*
Dwight Evans (84.6)*
Bobby Bonds (80.6)*
Jack Clark (70.8)
Mike Tiernan (68.7)
Rocky Colavito (67.0)
Tony Oliva (63.1)
Darryl Strawberry (60.9)
Dixie Walker (58.7)
Rusty Staub (58.5)
Dave Parker (57.5)
Roger Maris (55.8)
Jose Canseco (55.4)
Ken Singleton (54.3)

Once again, we have a player way out in front of the rest (Larry Walker). Like Wynn, his value is greatly affected by park factor and era adjustments. Unlike Wynn, both cut his value, rather than add to it.

Reggie Smith, Dwight Evans, and Bobby Bonds are all close together and certainly would not hurt the Hall of Fame. I prefer Evans over the other two, but that could also be some homerism talking.

Tony Oliva, Dave Parker, and Roger Maris have their supporters, but each perfectly fits into the Hall of Very Good, by wWAR. Other names here like Jack Clark, Rocky Covalito, Darryl Strawberry, Rusty Staub, and Ken Singleton fit well to me, too.

Designated Hitter:

Edgar Martinez (100.5)*
Brian Downing (65.5)

Brian Downing is a great example of the Hall of Very Good. Edgar Martinez is a great example of a Hall of Famer. If only…

Pitcher:

Bob Caruthers (120.8)*
Kevin Brown (95.9)*
Wes Ferrell (93.2)*
Rick Reuschel (91.9)*
Charlie Buffinton (88.5)*
Tony Mullane (88.4)*
David Cone (86.5)*
Luis Tiant (86.3)*
Silver King (83.0)*
Orel Hershiser (82.3)*
Dave Stieb (80.3)*
Bret Saberhagen (79.7)*
Jim McCormick (78.6)*
Kevin Appier (76.7)*
Wilbur Wood (76.7)*
Frank Tanana (76.2)*
Billy Pierce (76.1)*
Jerry Koosman (75.6)
Chuck Finley (75.4)
Tommy Bond (75.0)
Urban Shocker (74.5)
Larry Jackson (74.0)
Carl Mays (73.0)
Dwight Gooden (72.6)
Babe Adams (72.4)
Tommy John (72.4)
Jack Stivetts (71.6)
Tommy Bridges (71.4)
Wilbur Cooper (70.3)
Mark Langston (68.8)
Noodles Hahn (68.6)
Dizzy Trout (68.3)
Bucky Walters (67.8)
George Uhle (67.8)
Bobby Mathews (67.4)
Dolf Luque (66.9)
Mickey Lolich (66.6)
Steve Rogers (66.0)
Vida Blue (66.0)
Nap Rucker (65.5)
Ron Guidry (64.5)
Frank Viola (64.4)
Dave Foutz (64.0)
Jimmy Key (63.7)
Lon Warneke (63.3)
Jack Quinn (63.2)
Sam McDowell (62.7)
Jim Whitney (62.6)
Jesse Tannehill (62.2)
Bobo Newsom (61.7)
Dennis Martinez (61.5)
Fernando Valenzuela (61.2)
Jim Kaat (60.5)
Dick McBride (60.4)
Hippo Vaughn (60.1)
Bob Friend (60.1)
Jon Matlack (59.0)
Jack Powell (58.0)
Jim Maloney (57.8)
Al Orth (57.7)
Harry Brecheen (57.6)
Ted Breitenstein (56.9)
Claude Osteen (56.8)
Schoolboy Rowe (56.7)
Curt Simmons (56.1)
Mel Harder (56.1)
Dutch Leonard, the right-handed one (55.8)
Ned Garver (55.4)
Guy Hecker (55.2)
Doc White (55.0)
Eddie Rommel (54.9)
Bob Shawkey (54.9)
Virgil Trucks (54.8)
Nig Cuppy (54.7)
Ed Reulbach (54.1)
Jack Morris (54.0)
Brad Radke (53.7)
Tom Candiotti (53.4)
Sam Leever (53.1)
Murry Dickson (53.1)
Claude Passeau (52.7)
Camilo Pascual (52.4)

There are a lot of pitchers here.i noted that the Hall of wWAR is short on center fielders, but the Hall of Very Good is bursting with them. Well, the Hall of Very Good is bursting with pitchers. Does this mean the Hall of wWAR is short on them? If so, that’s interesting because the Hall of Fame and Hall of wWAR happen to have the same number of pitchers.

I’ll admit it—the list of pitchers outside of the Hall does not seem nearly as impressive as the list of hitters outside of the Hall. I wonder if it is because:

The powers that be have done a fantastic job of electing pitchers, or
The bar is much higher for pitchers than hitters.

I plan to look into this further. I really wonder if #2 is the reason. You see how highly a guy like Bert Blyleven ranks and then struggles to get in the Hall. Even Kevin Brown was one-and-done. I don’t think people realize how rare a pitcher like Curt Schilling, Mike Mussina, or Kevin Brown is.

#1 is not the reason. The Hall has plenty of Rube Marquards and Jesse Haineses. Then there’s Jack Morris. Voters and Veterans just seem to be looking for the wrong things.

Bert Blyleven was the first starting pitcher inducted since Nolan Ryan. Really?

The best pitchers not in, to me, correlate with wWAR. Give me Brown from the 20th century and Bob Caruthers from the 19th. Give me Wes Ferrell as the unique oddball, too. Add on his hitting stats and he’s downright Koufaxian. Caruthers, of course, gets a huge boost from his offense, too.

Next comes the group of Reuschel, Cone, Hershiser, Stieb, and Saberhagen. Luis Tiant is mixed in there too, but he has many more supporters (including yours truly) than the others. Why?

I need to do the research, but my hypothesis is that the Cone, Stieb, etc. of other generations eventually were inducted. I don’t see any pitchers in that group having a chance at induction, and that’s probably wrong. Was there really a lack of Hall-level pitchers between Blyleven/Ryan and the group about to hit the ballot?

I’m still not thrilled with how wWAR handles 19th century pitchers, so I’m not banging the drum for Charlie Buffinton, Tony Mullane, Silver King, or Jim McCormick. From that group, though, I lean towards Mullane and McCormick.

The Hall of Very Good features some really good names—Jim Kaat and Tommy John. Wilbur Wood and Frank Tanana. Vida Blue and Sam McDowell. Chuck Finley and Kevin Appier. Ron Guidry and Frank Viola. Fernando Valenzuela and Dennis Martinez.

Brad Radke and Jack Morris.

Gosh, a great book could be made just from these names alone.

Relief Pitcher:

John Hiller (57.0)

The Hall of wWAR booted Hoyt Wilhelm, Bruce Sutter, and Rollie Fingers. Thanks to my generous reliever adjustments, Wilhelm and Sutter performed at the Hall of Very Good level. They are joined by the most underrated reliever—and perhaps the most underrated pitcher—in history: John Hiller.

Just a disclaimer here: this data may not quite be complete. The original net I cast for wWAR analysis was all players with 40+ WAR, but 30+ WAR for pitchers and 19th century hitters. So, there is a chance that some 30something WAR hitters with high peaks could sneak in here. If you think of any, please let me know.

And there we have it. I’m really looking forward to Sky and Marc’s book. I look forward to reading about several of these players—and of course, looking for players they include who are not listed here!