Category: Does he belong in the Hall of Fame?

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Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? Moises Alou

Claim to fame: A member of perhaps the largest extended family of major leaguers, Moises Alou is not only the son of Felipe and nephew of Matty and Jesus, but also the cousin of pitchers Mel Rojas and Jose Sosa.  Although a lifetime .303 hitter and a six-time All-Star in a lengthy career with seven NL clubs, Alou might be best known for flailing his arms and beseeching the left field umpire that he was denied an opportunity to catch a foul pop-up in the 2003 playoffs – the infamous Bartman incident.

Current Hall of Fame eligibility: Alou last played in 2008.  His name will first appear on the BBWAA ballot in January of 2014.

Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? Among all players named Alou, his .369 OBP and .516 SLG are tops.  His BA was bettered only slightly by Matty at .307.  Moises hit more homers than his father and two uncles combined, by a wide margin.  Moises of course benefited from playing during the hitter-friendly 90s, while Felipe, Matty, and Jesus played a generation earlier, enduring the pitcher-dominated 60s.  Even era-adjusted, however, most would consider Moises as the best hitting Alou.  But being the best in the family – even a large and distinguished family – does not necessarily open the gates to Cooperstown.

Alou twice finished third in MVP voting, and his career WAR is good, but certainly not stellar, at 38.2.  Alou’s 332 home runs rank 93rd all-time.  That puts him ahead of Hall of Famers Hank Greenberg, Gary Carter, and Al Simmons, but behind Gary Gaetti, Matt Williams, and Joe Carter, none of whom is likely to be headed to the Hall.  Perhaps more impressive, Alou ranks 68th in career slugging percentage, ahead of insiders Willie McCovey, Eddie Mathews, and Harmon Killebrew, but behind outsiders Kevin Mitchell, Hal Trosky, and Mo Vaughan.  What’s more, Alou once led the majors in grounding into double plays, a dubious achievement, although one that never weighed too heavily against Jim Rice.  As a Hall of Fame candidate, Alou falls in the grey area – not clearly in, not necessarily out.

Recently, the case for Jim Edmonds was presented in “Does He Belong in the Hall of Fame?”  Edmonds’ and Alou’s careers spanned approximately the same years, and their batting stats are broadly similar (slight edge to Edmonds).  In the field, however, Alou lacked the defensive sparkle (and appropriately his trophy case lacks the hardware) for which Edmonds is known.  If you’re for Edmonds, you might or might not be for Alou.  If you’re against Edmonds, you’re probably against Alou, too.

As a member of baseball’s class of 2008, Alou will not be the most impressive player on the 2014 ballot, which will be rich with first-timers.  All-time great Greg Maddux is a certain first-ballot inductee who will probably be named by all but the most persnickety of voters.  Jeff Kent might also get in on the first ballot, but if not, he will certainly collect a large number of votes.  So will Tom Glavine, Luis Gonzalez, Mike Mussina, and Frank Thomas.  Worse for Alou, the 2007 class is also strong (Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Kenny Lofton, Mike Piazza and Curt Schilling). Throw in the possibility that in 2014 most of those players (I’m guessing Bonds, Clemens, Lofton, and Schilling) could be holdovers from the 2013 ballot, and it becomes clear that Alou might be feeling the squeeze in 2014.

Alou had a strong enough career that he deserves the consideration and debate that a long tenure on the HOF ballot would provide.  It will be an injustice if he immediately falls below the 5% cutoff due to the misfortune of retiring in the same year as Maddux, Kent, Mussina and others.

Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? is a Tuesday feature here.

Others in this series: Adrian Beltre, Al Oliver, Albert Belle, Barry Larkin, Bert Blyleven, Billy Martin, Cecil Travis, Chipper Jones, Closers, Dan Quisenberry, Darrell Evans, Dave Parker, Don Mattingly, Don Newcombe, George Steinbrenner, George Van Haltren, Harold Baines, Jack Morris, Jim Edmonds, Joe Carter, Joe Posnanski, John Smoltz, Juan Gonzalez, Keith Hernandez, Ken Caminiti, Larry Walker, Maury Wills, Mel Harder, Pete Browning, Phil Cavarretta, Rafael Palmeiro, Roberto Alomar, Rocky Colavito, Ron Guidry, Ron Santo, Smoky Joe Wood, Steve Garvey, Ted Simmons, Thurman Munson, Tim Raines, Will Clark

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Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? Ron Santo

Claim to fame: Santo just might be the best eligible baseball player not in the Hall of Fame, depending on one’s views of Jeff Bagwell, Bill Dahlen, or a few others. Santo was certainly one of the most-beloved non-enshrined players even before his death at 70 in December. In 15 seasons, he was a nine-time All Star, five-time Gold Glove winner, and, together with Ernie Banks and Billy Williams, one of the top Chicago Cubs in the 1960s. His career WAR of 66.7, while not iconic, ranks among the best for eligible players not in Cooperstown. The question is if all this is enough for a plaque.

Current Hall of Fame eligibility: Santo exhausted his 15 years of eligibility with the Baseball Writers Association of America in 1998, peaking with 43.1 percent of the vote, well below the needed 75 percent. That leaves him for the Veterans Committee to consider, though as Joe Posnanski wrote in December, “The structure and standards of the committee changed so that in the last 10 or more years the Veteran’s Committee has turned into a grumpy bunch of scrooges who seemed to come out once a year for the expressed purpose of not voting for Ron Santo or Marvin Miller.”

Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? I’ll start by saying Santo would be far from the worst Veterans Committee pick. I’d have him in the Hall of Fame over Nellie Fox, Rick Ferrell, or just about any former teammate Frankie Frisch railroaded into Cooperstown in his years heading the committee. But that’s not the best way to get a guy into the Hall of Fame. Posnanski wrote something about this last summer.

Posnanski wrote:

The reason this is fairly useless (but enjoyable) is that nobody really believes the Hall of Fame line is drawn at the most controversial choices. Nobody wants a Hall of Fame that includes every single player who was ever as good as or better than George Kelly or Herb Pennock. Then, suddenly, you find yourself arguing why Danny Darwin is not in the Hall of Fame, and nobody really wants to have THAT argument (except maybe Danny Darwin, I don’t know).

The line has to be drawn somewhere, and where it sits now, guys like Santo and Gil Hodges are sentimental favorites for fans, but fence cases statistically. I heard someone refer to Santo a few months before his death as one of the living legends not in the Hall of Fame, and that seems a little over the top, given his .277 batting average, 342 home runs, and OPS+ of 125, among other things. Still, he exceeds the Gray Ink standard on career stats for Cooperstown and comes close on two other metrics, so there may be more worth exploring here.

Of course, stats aren’t everything. So much of making Cooperstown comes down to what the player means to fans, writers, and baseball folk, and with that I’ll offer one more thing. A few months ago, I organized a voter-driven project to find the 50 best players not in the Hall of Fame, and Santo tied for second with Roberto Alomar. I mention this as Alomar and our first place winner, Bert Blyleven each were subsequently voted into Cooperstown by the baseball writers. While I’m absolutely not taking any credit here (as it would be hilariously ridiculous), perhaps this is a good omen for Santo when he’s next eligible with the Veterans Committee in 2012.

He’s well-regarded. At some point, perhaps that will be enough.

Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? is a Tuesday feature here.

Others in this series: Adrian Beltre, Al Oliver, Albert Belle, Barry Larkin, Bert Blyleven, Billy Martin, Cecil Travis, Chipper Jones, Closers, Dan Quisenberry, Darrell Evans, Dave Parker, Don Mattingly, Don Newcombe, George Steinbrenner, George Van Haltren, Harold Baines, Jack Morris, Jim Edmonds, Joe Carter, Joe Posnanski, John Smoltz, Juan Gonzalez, Keith Hernandez, Ken Caminiti, Larry Walker, Maury Wills, Mel Harder, Pete Browning, Phil Cavarretta, Rafael Palmeiro, Roberto Alomar, Rocky Colavito, Ron Guidry, Smoky Joe Wood, Steve Garvey, Ted Simmons, Thurman Munson, Tim Raines, Will Clark

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Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? Jim Edmonds

Claim to fame: Four-time All Star and eight-time Gold Glove center fielder Edmonds announced his retirement on February 18 at 40. His 393 home runs, 1,949 hits, and .284 lifetime batting average seem a little pedestrian for much of his era, one of the greatest periods for hitters in baseball history, though Edmonds’ stats compare favorably with a number of Hall of Fame outfielders including Jim Rice and the recently-deceased Duke Snider. His chances for Cooperstown look promising.

Current Hall of Fame eligibility: Edmonds will first be eligible for enshrinement through the Baseball Writers Association of America in 2016, with a maximum of 15 years on their ballot.

Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? Was Edmonds ever the best player in his league? No, but he came close a few times, finishing in the top five in National League MVP voting in 2000 and again in 2004. Was he, at any point in his career, the best player at his position? Maybe, depending on one’s opinions of Ken Griffey Jr., Andruw Jones, and Carlos Beltran. Was Edmonds ever much more than a very good player? Maybe not, but he was very good in so many facets of his game. That has to count for something.

In his prime, Edmonds offered 40-home run power, a .300 batting average, Gold Glove-caliber defense, and near-MVP WAR. Barry Bonds didn’t do all this in his biggest offensive years (though he did it early in his career.) Alex Rodriguez has done it, as have Albert Pujols and Griffey, and maybe a small number of others. Without checking, I’d guess it’s one of the feats that’s remained consistently rare between eras, steroids or no. Well-rounded players aren’t easy to come by. Guys like Edmonds are probably more valuable than they’re given credit for. I suspect he’ll be one of the more underrated Hall of Fame candidates when the time comes.

Is Edmonds a first ballot Hall of Famer? I doubt it. Snider, who hit 407 home runs with a .295 lifetime batting average, needed 11 ballots before his induction in 1980. Rice, with 382 home runs and a .298 clip, needed 15. While Edmonds hit for a lower batting average in a better offensive era (though Snider and Rice each played their best years in prime hitter’s enclaves, Ebbets Field and Fenway Park), Edmonds’ lifetime WAR of 68.3 bests Rice (41.5) and Snider (just barely, 67.5.) In addition, Edmonds’ OPS+ of 132, while less than dozens of non-enshrined players including Will Clark, Albert Belle, and Mark McGwire, bests Rice at 128, but falls short of Snider at 140.

The thought here is that unless an old, positive steroid test emerges for Edmonds, we’ll see him inducted into Cooperstown somewhere within 5-10 years after he debuts on the ballot. Some purists and Hall of Fame restrictionists may bemoan the eventual presence in Cooperstown of a second-tier honoree like Edmonds (because he’s no Ruth or Mays or Aaron, not that many players really are.) All the same, I doubt the Hall of Fame will be any worse for it.

Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? is a Tuesday feature here.

Others in this series: Adrian Beltre, Al Oliver, Albert Belle, Barry Larkin, Bert Blyleven, Billy Martin, Cecil Travis, Chipper Jones, Closers, Dan Quisenberry, Darrell Evans, Dave Parker, Don Mattingly, Don Newcombe, George Steinbrenner, George Van Haltren, Harold Baines, Jack Morris, Joe Carter, Joe Posnanski, John Smoltz, Juan Gonzalez, Keith Hernandez, Ken Caminiti, Larry Walker, Maury Wills, Mel Harder, Pete Browning, Phil Cavarretta, Rafael Palmeiro, Roberto Alomar, Rocky Colavito, Ron Guidry, Smoky Joe Wood, Steve Garvey, Ted Simmons, Thurman Munson, Tim Raines, Will Clark

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Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? Darrell Evans

Claim to fame: Darrell Evans played for the Braves, Giants, and Tigers in his long and productive career. Although a ten year career can be sufficient for Hall of Fame consideration, not many Hall of Famers have had such short careers. A few played 12 years or less; most had careers in the 14 to 18 year range. Evans played 21 seasons, with his later years being some of his best.

Evans was a two-time All-Star, first in 1973 and again in 1983 at age 36. Twice he hit 40 or more home runs; in 1973 he was one of three players in the Braves’ lineup with 40, and in 1985, at age 38, his 40 homers for the Tigers led the American League. Evans is perhaps unique in one sense: His late-career productivity was Hall-worthy, while his early-career numbers could leave him short.

Current Hall of Fame eligibility: Evans was one-and-done, receiving 1.7 percent of the Baseball Writers Association of America vote in 1995. Since more than 20 years have passed since Evans’ retirement, he can now be considered by the Veterans Committee.

Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? Evans had a very unusual career arc. For most players, productivity peaks around age 28 or 29. Age 30 is typically the doorway to decline. Many a 28-year-old All-Star has found himself riding the bench at age 33, or worse, strolling the golf course as a former major leaguer.

Hall of Famers tend to buck this trend, maintaining a high level of play through their early and mid-30s. However, even for Hall members, the decline from late 20s peak performance is usually evident in their stats. In contrast, Evans had no measurable drop-off in performance after turning 30. Evans’ OBP exceeded .350 every year during his 30s. It wasn’t until his last two seasons, in his 40s, that his numbers began to trail off.

Evans’ list of “similars” on Baseball-Reference.com is headed by Graig Nettles, Dale Murphy, and Dwight Evans – good company all, but not Hall of Fame company.  The lone Hall of Famer on Evans’ list is Eddie Mathews at No. 10. Comparing career numbers, Mathews hit for higher average and with more power than Evans, but he achieved this advantage only early in his career, declining dramatically after 1965 when he was 33. In terms of BA, OBP and SLG, Mathews and Evans have virtually identical numbers from age 31 on, though Evans played almost twice as long after turning 30.

Player Career phase G H HR BA OBP SLG
Darrell Evans Age 22-30 995 829 147 .248 .367 .428
Age 31-42 1692 1394 267 .247 .356 .433
Total 2687 2223 414 .248 .361 .431
Eddie Mathews Age 20-30 1634 1690 399 .282 .384 .543
Age 31-36 757 625 113 .247 .351 .431
Total 2391 2315 512 .271 .376 .509


If Evans’ stats leave him just shy of Cooperstown, let’s compare him to some other not-quite Hall of Famers. Jimmy Wynn, Don Mattingly, and Rocky Colavito have all been examined on this blog in recent months. Each had early-career numbers pointing toward Cooperstown, but quicker and steeper declines after age 30 than is typical for most Hall of Famers. In some cases, the decline is fueled by chronic injuries, as was true for Mattingly. In any event, the resulting failure to pass or even approach milestone numbers of hits and home runs undermines the Hall candidacy of such players.

Listed below are five players who had very strong production early, but who didn’t last very long into their 30s. After age 30, Murphy’s career mirrored Mathews’, which is to say it was half of what Evans’ post-30 career was.  The others below were done by age 35. On average they played about a third as much as Evans after age 30, and with less impact.

Player Career G H HR BA OBP SLG
Dale Murphy Age 20-30 1360 1388 266 .277 .355 .491
Age 31-37 820 723 132 .246 .329 .431
Total 2180 2111 398 .265 .346 .469
Jimmy Wynn Age 21-30 1287 1185 203 .259 .361 .450
Age 31-35 633 480 88 .232 .370 .405
Total 1920 1665 291 .250 .366 .436
Mo Vaughn Age 23-30 1046 1165 230 .304 .394 .542
Age 31-35 466 455 98 .267 .356 .481
Total 1512 1620 328 .293 .383 .523
Don Mattingly Age 21-30 1269 1570 178 .314 .359 .491
Age 31-34 516 583 44 .292 .354 .422
Total 1785 2153 222 .307 .358 .471
Rocky Colavito Age 21-30 1326 1302 302 .272 .363 .515
Age 31-34 515 428 72 .250 .345 .415
Total 1841 1730 374 .266 .359 .489


To put the value of Evans’ post-30 career into perspective, let’s imagine that we can combine the early-career stats of each of the above near-miss candidates with Evans’ late-career stats. The result is a set of hybrid players, each with what would have been a long and Hall-worthy career. While none of these hybrids has a stellar batting average (remember each is half Darrell Evans), all have more than 2500 hits, and all but Mattingly/Evans have 470 or more HR.

I’m not saying that if such players existed, each would automatically be voted in, but the Colavito/Evans chimera for example has career numbers that practically match Reggie Jackson’s, minus the post-season heroics, of course. What I am saying is that if any of these hybrid players existed, they would have been taken very seriously as a Hall candidates and would have earned considerably more votes than any of them did in real life as individual entities.

Player hybrid G H HR BA OBP SLG
Murphy/Evans 3052 2782 533 .261 .355 .460
Wynn/Evans 2979 2579 470 .252 .358 .441
Vaughn/Evans 2738 2559 497 .270 .371 .477
Mattingly/Evans 2961 2964 445 .279 .357 .460
Colavito/Evans 3018 2696 569 .259 .359 .470


Evans might never be able to add the letters HOF when he signs his name. And I would wager that few kids in the sandlots these days have even heard of Evans or dreamed of emulating his career. But this much is clear. Any current-day star in his late 20s who has an eye on making the Hall (David Wright, let’s say) would be well advised to aspire to a Darrell Evans-like second act.

Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? is a Tuesday feature here.

Others in this series: Adrian Beltre, Al Oliver, Albert Belle, Barry Larkin, Bert Blyleven, Billy Martin, Cecil Travis, Chipper Jones, Closers, Dan Quisenberry, Dave Parker, Don Mattingly, Don Newcombe, George Steinbrenner, George Van Haltren, Harold Baines, Jack Morris, Joe Carter, Joe Posnanski, John Smoltz, Juan Gonzalez, Keith Hernandez, Ken Caminiti, Larry Walker, Maury Wills, Mel Harder, Pete Browning, Phil Cavarretta, Rafael Palmeiro, Roberto Alomar, Rocky Colavito, Ron Guidry, Smoky Joe Wood, Steve Garvey, Ted Simmons, Thurman Munson, Tim Raines, Will Clark

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Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? Harold Baines

Claim to fame: One of the first longtime designated hitters to build some support for Cooperstown, Baines hit .289 lifetime with 2,866 hits and 384 home runs. He might never have been a superstar, much of a defender, or someone I’d seriously consider voting into the Hall of Fame, but with 150 more hits, he’d probably have been a first ballot inductee.

Current Hall of Fame eligibility: Baines received 4.8 percent of the vote this year from the Baseball Writers Association of America, which will remove him from future ballots. In his four preceding years on the ballot, Baines never got more than about 6 percent of the writers vote.

Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? Here’s an interesting quirk of baseball history. Baseball-Reference.com includes a Bill James-inspired metric called Similarity Scores which show how players compare based on career batting stats. For reasons I’ll explain momentarily, the player Al Kaline ranks most similar to for this metric is Baines.

Does this mean Baines was as good as Kaline, a first-ballot Hall of Famer? No. Kaline has the better lifetime batting average, a higher OPS+ and nearly three times as much WAR. More than that, Similarity Scores aren’t adjusted for era, meaning if Kaline played the second half of his career in the hitter-friendly 1990s or got to DH a lot like Baines, Kaline might have a .315 career batting average and 500 more hits. This says nothing about Kaline’s superior value in the outfield or as a franchise cornerstone of the Detroit Tigers. He earned his spot in Cooperstown.

But it wouldn’t seem outlandish to call Baines a poor man’s Kaline at the plate, and with 150 more hits, he’d already be in the Hall of Fame. Until Rafael Palmeiro this year, no eligible player with 3,000 hits had failed to be a first ballot inductee since 1952. Don’t ask me why the BBWAA assigns such significance to 3,000 hits. It isn’t like this with 300 wins, as Phil Niekro, Gaylord Perry, or Don Sutton know, nor with 500 home runs, which couldn’t get Harmon Killebrew into the Hall of Fame his first three tries. But 3,000 hits has meant first-round induction for, dare I say, lesser greats like Dave Winfield, Eddie Murray, and Carl Yastrzemski.

Meanwhile, Al Oliver, who hit .303 lifetime with 2,743 hits received exactly 20 Hall of Fame votes his only year eligible, 1991. Baines has done markedly better than Oliver in Cooperstown voting for reasons I’m not completely sure of—Oliver has a slightly better WAR, 38.8 and played from 1968 to 1985, with most of his best years in a tougher time for hitters than Baines who played 1980 to 2001. Judging from his hitting stats, Oliver might be one of the more underrated players in baseball history. Neither man was anything less than a liability defensively, though if I had to choose one of them to DH for me, I’d take Oliver, no question.

All of this is not to knock Baines who had many All Star-caliber years, figured in nicely with some playoff teams, and would be a first rate member of a Hall of Very Good. But then, a player or two with 3,000 hits might belong there too.

Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? is a Tuesday feature here.

Others in this series: Adrian Beltre, Al Oliver, Albert Belle, Barry Larkin, Bert Blyleven, Billy Martin, Cecil Travis, Chipper Jones, Closers, Dan Quisenberry, Dave Parker, Don Mattingly, Don Newcombe, George Steinbrenner, George Van Haltren, Jack Morris, Joe Carter, Joe Posnanski, John Smoltz, Juan Gonzalez, Keith Hernandez, Ken Caminiti, Larry Walker, Maury Wills, Mel Harder, Pete Browning, Phil Cavarretta, Rafael Palmeiro, Roberto Alomar, Rocky Colavito, Ron Guidry, Smoky Joe Wood, Steve Garvey, Ted Simmons, Thurman Munson, Tim Raines, Will Clark

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Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? Closers

The following post is written by Matthew Warburg

With the retirement in January of the current career saves leader, Trevor Hoffman, it seems now would be a good time to repeat a question we’ve heard before: Do closers belong in the Hall of Fame? Some people might say yes, and voters certainly have. For me, the answer is that for the most part they do not. Closers simply do not have a big enough impact on the game to be considered among the all-time greats.

To start with, closers pitch relatively few innings. Of the four modern day closers in Cooperstown (Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage, Bruce Sutter, and Dennis Eckersley, provided one does not consider Hoyt Wilhelm a modern closer), none pitched more than 1,600 innings as a reliever. To put that in perspective, consider that that is roughly the same number of innings a starter pitches in about seven seasons.  Most Hall of Fame starters pitch between 3000-4000 innings, and even Sandy Koufax’s brief but stellar career encompassed over 2300 innings pitched. Obviously, the fewer innings pitched, the less impact a hurler has on the game.

A closer’s job isn’t particularly difficult. After all, if you enter the 9th inning with the bases empty, no outs, and the lead, as most modern closers do, you already probably have around an 80 percent chance of winning the game. So the fact that the best closers have save percentages in the mid to high 80’s isn’t really that impressive. Consider too that many save opportunities come with two or three run leads, in which case the chance of winning the game is already probably upwards of 90 percent, and the job of closing out a game becomes an even less impressive feat.

Add these two points together, and you get largely unremarkable pitchers whose Hall of Fame candidacies are the product of a poorly designed statistic, the save. Closers wouldn’t even be entering the Cooperstown discussion if not for that stat’s existence. The evidence is in the WAR. Goose Gossage, the closer with the highest career WAR of those already inducted (I haven’t counted Eckersley’s years as a starter), is tied for 425th on the all-time list. Gossage’s best single season, with a WAR of 7.0 (also I believe the best single season by any closer) doesn’t even come close to making the top 500 seasons of all-time (the cut-off is 8.1).

Now consider that Bruce Sutter’s best single season WAR was 6.3, Eckersley’s (as a reliever) 3.2, and Fingers’ 4.1 (the year he won the Cy Young and MVP.) Francisco Rodriguez’s 62-save masterpiece only earned him a WAR of 3.2. Mariano Rivera’s best season is a whopping 5.4; Lee Smith never topped 4.5. And Trevor Hoffman, the current all-time saves leader whose retirement has sparked this debate? A career WAR of 30.7 and single-season high of 4.0.

So are the best closers very good at what they do? Undoubtedly yes. But is what they do very difficult? No. Do they have a significant impact on the outcome of baseball games. No. Maybe that’s why whenever a closer gets injured or traded, a manager is usually able to give the job to his next best reliever and achieve similar results. It just isn’t that difficult or meaningful a job, which is why I don’t think closers belong in the HOF.

This was a guest post written by Matthew Warburg

Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? is a Tuesday feature here.

Others in this series: Adrian Beltre, Al Oliver, Albert Belle, Barry Larkin, Bert Blyleven, Billy Martin, Cecil Travis, Chipper Jones, Dan Quisenberry, Dave Parker, Don Mattingly, Don Newcombe, George Steinbrenner, George Van Haltren, Jack Morris, Joe Carter, Joe Posnanski, John Smoltz, Juan Gonzalez, Keith Hernandez, Ken Caminiti, Larry Walker, Maury Wills, Mel Harder, Pete Browning, Phil Cavarretta, Rafael Palmeiro, Roberto Alomar, Rocky Colavito, Ron Guidry, Smoky Joe Wood, Steve Garvey, Ted Simmons, Thurman Munson, Tim Raines, Will Clark

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Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? Barry Larkin

Claim to fame: The shortstop for the Cincinnati Reds from 1986 to 2004, Larkin was a 12-time All Star, three-time Gold Glove winner, and the 1995 National League MVP. In January, Larkin appeared for the second time on the Baseball Writers Association of America’s ballot for the Hall of Fame and received 62.1 percent of the vote– less than the 75 percent he needed to get in but a sizable improvement from the 51.6 percent he received in 2010. With Bert Blyleven and Roberto Alomar to be enshrined via the writers this summer, Larkin looks like one of their logical next inductees in 2012.

Current Hall of Fame eligibility: Larkin has a maximum of 13 more years of eligibility remaining. If he’s not ultimately enshrined, whether by the writers or the Veterans Committee, Larkin would have a dubious first: In 75 years of Hall of Fame voting, no player who’s received more than 50 percent of the BBWAA vote in his second year of eligibility has failed to earn an eventual spot in the Hall of Fame. Others who’ve followed this path, like Roy Campanella, Juan Marichal, and Ryne Sandberg got into the Hall of Fame by their fifth year on the ballot. Larkin seems a certain pick for Cooperstown. Whether this is deserved or not is another question.

Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? It depends on one’s criteria. For those who see Cooperstown as strictly a place for the Babe Ruths, Ty Cobbs, and Hank Aarons of baseball, Larkin doesn’t come close. He’s too flawed a candidate by that measure, too mortal, someone with few healthy seasons (just four seasons with more than 150 games) and several borderline Hall of Fame stats from his .295 batting average to his 116 OPS+ to his 68.9 WAR. One might even call Larkin overrated, a player who wouldn’t be anywhere close to Cooperstown had he put up the same hitting numbers as a center fielder.

All that being said, Larkin would be far from the worst shortstop in the Hall of Fame, and I wouldn’t be against enshrining him. Larkin might not be on par with Honus Wagner or Cal Ripken Jr or Alex Rodriguez, but TheBaseballGauge.com lists Larkin having a better career WAR than 14 shortstops in Cooperstown:

  • Luis Aparicio
  • Dave Bancroft
  • Ernie Banks
  • Lou Boudreau
  • Travis Jackson
  • Hughie Jennings
  • Rabbit Maranville
  • Pee Wee Reese
  • Phil Rizzuto
  • Joe Sewell
  • Ozzie Smith
  • Joe Tinker
  • Bobby Wallace
  • George Wright

The only inactive shortstop with a better career WAR than Larkin who isn’t in the Hall of Fame is Bill Dahlen, a solid, if not great Deadball Era shortstop who played in Wagner’s shadow and spent 21 years in the majors, all told. In 2006, my colleague Cyril Morong called Dahlen the best eligible player not in the Hall of Fame. I wouldn’t be surprised if Cyril and Dahlen’s other champions decry when Larkin is inducted. Same goes for Vizquel or Alan Trammell or Dave Concepcion who had a distressingly strong showing with the Veterans Committee in December. Then and now, image is everything for a shortstop to get into the Hall of Fame.

Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? is a Tuesday feature here.

Others in this series: Adrian Beltre, Al Oliver, Albert Belle, Bert Blyleven, Billy Martin, Cecil Travis, Chipper Jones, Dan Quisenberry, Dave Parker, Don Mattingly, Don Newcombe, George Steinbrenner, George Van Haltren, Jack Morris, Joe Carter, Joe Posnanski, John Smoltz, Juan Gonzalez, Keith Hernandez, Ken Caminiti, Larry Walker, Maury Wills, Mel Harder, Pete Browning, Phil Cavarretta, Rafael Palmeiro, Roberto Alomar, Rocky Colavito, Ron Guidry, Smoky Joe Wood, Steve Garvey, Ted Simmons, Thurman Munson, Tim Raines, Will Clark

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Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? Joe Posnanski

Claim to fame: Here’s a trivia question: Who is Charles Dryden? How about Heywood Broun? Frank Graham? As an aspiring sportswriter, I’ve read Dryden, Broun, Graham and other long-dead pioneers of my craft. Dryden even had a cool life story, living as a hobo in the 1800s before going to work as a newspaperman. He once described Deadball Era pitcher Ed Walsh as “the only man in the world who could strut standing still.” To most fans, Dryden, Broun, and Graham would be just names. They have one thing, though, that a current, recognizable sportswriter, Joe Posnanski does not: a spot in the writers wing of the Hall of Fame.

Honoring recipients of the J.G. Taylor Spink Award, “for meritorious contributions to baseball writing,” the wing is a place that I could get lost in but something most fans wouldn’t care seeing on their Cooperstown visit. Honoring Posnanski could boost interest. As a two-time AP sports columnist of the year, current Sports Illustrated writer, and celebrated blogger, Posnanski might be the best sports journalist today. Certainly, I look up to him, and I enjoyed interviewing him. I’m far from the only person Posnanski’s influenced. That’s a common theme among the greatest writers wing honorees from Grantland Rice to Jim Murray to Peter Gammons.

Current Hall of Fame eligibility: Posnanski is eligible to win the award,  though as he’s in his 40s, it could be awhile. Traditionally, the award has functioned as something of a lifetime achievement honor, given to writers like Murray late in their careers or awarded posthumously. Gammons was one of the youngest honorees when he received the award in 2004 at 59.

Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? Yes, absolutely. I look at Posnanski like I look at Albert Pujols. Each man is so much more skilled than his peers it’s ridiculous, and if either were to retire tomorrow, I would have no problem honoring them. Each has done enough for Cooperstown in my eyes.

Posnanski would have a strong case for the writers wing from his newspaper, Sports Illustrated, and book-writing work, but it’s what he’s done outside his job that seals it for me. Posnanski is a master of the 21st century version of New Journalism, blogging, and as sports writing becomes more and more of an online endeavor, he stands as a great example influencing a generation of young writers. He’s also a great guy, perhaps the best thing of all.

Murray was a role model, too, in his decades with the Los Angeles Times, inspiring countless writers who imitated his witty, acerbic prose. Years before, Graham essentially created the fly-on-the-wall style of sports feature writing. And after Rice died in 1954, Smith wrote, “Perhaps it is not literally true that Grantland Rice put a white collar upon the men of his profession, but not all sportswriters before him were cap-and-sweater guys. He was, however, the sportswriter whose company was sought by presidents and kings.”

At least a few others in the writers wing are, for aspiring writers, little more than good examples of bad examples. I won’t get into names, but they’re the kind of folk who trash blogging, denigrate any kind of different writing really (one less-than-stellar honoree called Ball Four “horseshit,” for instance) and bemoan the decline of newspapers. Every year that they are in the Hall of Fame and Posnanski is not, Cooperstown looks more behind the times.

Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? is a Tuesday feature here.

Others in this series: Adrian Beltre, Al Oliver, Albert Belle, Bert Blyleven, Billy Martin, Cecil Travis, Chipper Jones, Dan Quisenberry, Dave Parker, Don Mattingly, Don Newcombe, George Steinbrenner, George Van Haltren, Jack Morris, Joe Carter, John Smoltz, Juan Gonzalez, Keith Hernandez, Ken Caminiti, Larry Walker, Maury Wills, Mel Harder, Pete Browning, Phil Cavarretta, Rafael Palmeiro, Roberto Alomar, Rocky Colavito, Ron Guidry, Smoky Joe Wood, Steve Garvey, Ted Simmons, Thurman Munson, Tim Raines, Will Clark

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Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? Smoky Joe Wood

Claim to fame: Novelist James T. Farrell once wrote of Wood, “Some of the most exciting early games I saw were in 1912, when the Boston Red Sox came to town. They won the pennant that year, and they always beat the White Sox when I went to the games. Smoky Joe Wood, who belongs in the Hall of Fame, won 34 and lost 5 that year. In memory it seems as though he hurled all those games against Chicago. With shadows pushing over the ball park he would stand out there on the pitching mound in his red-trimmed gray road uniform, hitch up his pants, and throw. To this day, I have a recollection of a strange sensation as if my head had emptied, when he fired the ball in the shadowy park. The White Sox couldn’t touch him.”

Current Hall of Fame eligibility: Wood received votes for Cooperstown from the Baseball Writers Association of America nine years between 1936 and 1951, peaking at 18 percent of the vote in 1947. The Veterans Committee can enshrine Wood through its Pre-Integration Era subcommittee, which covers players from 1871 to 1946 and is due to meet next prior to 2013 inductions.

Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? Wood essentially has two things going for his Hall of Fame case. First, he has one of the greatest baseball names of all-time. Smoky Joe Wood sounds more like a Steinbeck character than a ballplayer. I’d venture that beyond Shoeless Joe, Smoky Joe might be the only Deadball Era player most fans today would know or care about. Wood also had one of the greatest pitching seasons ever, 1912, and his dominance that year went beyond his 34-5 record, 1.91 ERA, 10 shutouts, or 258 strikeouts. He also racked up 9.5 WAR, a better than 3-1 strikeout-walks ratio, and a 1.015 WHIP. If ever a pitcher deserved to be enshrined on the basis of one season, it’s Wood though Denny McLain of 1968 and Dwight Gooden of 1985 can’t rank far behind.

Wood doesn’t have much else on his resume beyond 1912 since he permanently injured his arm the following year and threw just 18.1 innings past 1915. It’s worth noting Wood transitioned to the outfield for a few seasons thereafter, even hitting .366 with an OPS+ of 151 in reserve duty in 1921. Mostly, though, Wood’s a tantalizing example of what might have been with his 117 career wins, all compiled by the age of 25 and his lifetime 2.03 ERA. Baseball’s enshrined pitchers before who were done early, from Addie Joss to Dizzy Dean to Sandy Koufax, but Wood’s lifetime marks would be the least of the bunch.

Whether Wood belongs in the Hall of Fame probably depends upon one’s view of the museum. For those who see Cooperstown strictly as a place to honor players with superior career stats, Wood doesn’t make it. Not even close. But for players who, for even a time, might have captured the spirit and magic of baseball and helped elevate the game, Wood has to be one of the very best without a plaque. And unlike many who held this mantle and then fell dramatically from grace, from McLain and Gooden to Jose Canseco and Mark McGwire, Wood seems just as mystifying almost 100 years after his last pitch. That has to be good for something.

Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? is a Tuesday feature here.

Others in this series: Adrian Beltre, Al Oliver, Albert Belle, Bert Blyleven, Billy Martin, Cecil Travis, Chipper Jones, Dan Quisenberry, Dave Parker, Don Mattingly, Don Newcombe, George Steinbrenner, George Van Haltren, Jack Morris, Joe Carter, John Smoltz, Juan Gonzalez, Keith Hernandez, Ken Caminiti, Larry Walker, Maury Wills, Mel Harder, Pete Browning, Phil Cavarretta, Rafael Palmeiro, Roberto Alomar, Rocky Colavito, Ron Guidry, Steve Garvey, Ted Simmons, Thurman Munson, Tim Raines, Will Clark

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Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? Ken Caminiti

Claim to fame: Caminiti was a tough-as-nails third baseman with Gold Glove-winning defense and good power, though that was overshadowed by so much. Persistent substance abuse throughout his life ultimately ended it at 41 in 2004. Caminiti was also the first notable baseball player to admit using steroids, in a June 3, 2002 Sports Illustrated cover story, and since then, the sport has changed dramatically. I wouldn’t give Caminiti a Hall of Fame plaque due to his so-so career stats, but I think his impact on the game has been undervalued. Baseball’s gotten a lot better since Caminiti had the courage to speak up.

Current Hall of Fame eligibility: Not surprisingly, Caminiti received just two votes out of more than 500 cast by the Baseball Writers Association of America in 2007, his only year on its ballot. He will be eligible with the Veterans Committee in 2021 and looks like an extreme long shot for Cooperstown, since the committee will have a backlog in the next 15-20 years of steroid-connected players shunned by the writers. I can’t see Caminiti getting in the Hall of Fame before Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, Sammy Sosa, and so many others with better stats.

Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? This was going to be a column about Jose Canseco, whose inglorious retirement was the subject of a recent blog post by Josh Wilker. I wondered if Canseco deserved a column here on the strength of his 2005 book Juiced, which was the first to name other players alleged to have used steroids, and then I remembered Caminiti, who was Canseco three years before him. In fact, there may have been no book from Canseco if Caminiti hadn’t bolstered the market (though the SI story noted that Canseco said upon his retirement in early 2002 that he would write his tell-all, though he didn’t admit to using steroids then.)

Some may credit Steve Wilstein, who reported on a steroid-related supplement in Mark McGwire’s locker during the 1998 home run chase. But Wilstein was excoriated by the baseball community and fellow sportswriters following his story, and the Steroid Era continued unchecked for another few years. The Caminiti piece signaled a turning point, baseball acknowledging steroids for the first time, and while it took another couple years of wrangling between baseball’s ownership and labor union, steroids were finally banned. The game isn’t perfect today, but I wouldn’t want things to go back to the way they were.

Others may credit Tom Verducci, the SI writer who broke the Caminiti story and grew it out of what was originally a Where is he now? assignment. Still, I credit Caminiti. With the exception of Canseco, pretty much every other player who’s admitted to using steroids has minimized their usage, making it sound like a one-time thing, a mistake, even an accident. Caminiti told Verducci he used steroids so heavily during his 1996 National League MVP season that “it took four months to get my nuts to drop on their own.” He also estimated at least half the players in the majors were juicing and said, “I’ve made a ton of mistakes. I don’t think using steroids is one of them.”

Some might call this all gutter bravado from Caminiti, just a drunk looking back at the mess his life became. I call it humility. I don’t know where baseball would be without it.

Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? is a Tuesday feature here.

Others in this series: Adrian Beltre, Al Oliver, Albert Belle, Bert Blyleven, Billy Martin, Cecil Travis, Chipper Jones, Dan Quisenberry, Dave Parker, Don Mattingly, Don Newcombe, George Steinbrenner, George Van Haltren, Jack Morris, Joe Carter, John Smoltz, Juan Gonzalez, Keith Hernandez, Larry Walker, Maury Wills, Mel Harder, Pete Browning, Phil Cavarretta, Rafael Palmeiro, Roberto Alomar, Rocky Colavito, Ron Guidry, Steve Garvey, Ted Simmons, Thurman Munson, Tim Raines, Will Clark