Run totals throughout baseball history

It started out as a simple question, one I’ve had since reading in The Book that teams scored just under five runs per game from 1999 through 2002 and that generalized run expectancy totals could be gleaned based on that. Many have treated The Book as the definitive tome for sabermetrics since its publication in 2007. Candidly, I was a little irked by its use of run totals from such a peak era of baseball history to suggest normative conditions. It couldn’t be right to suggest teams all through history have averaged five runs a game. Could it?

With the help of Baseball-Reference.com and a willingness to kill a few hours making a spreadsheet, such questions can easily be answered. Going through 139 seasons of data, I found the answer to my question: through baseball history, teams have averaged 4.53 runs per game. There’s more worth saying here, granted. A more detailed, though still admittedly cursory look at what I discovered in my research follows below.

I. Wild West: Before the formation of the American League in 1901

Year	Games	Runs	Average
1876	520	3066	5.9
1877	360	2040	5.67
1878	368	1904	5.17
1879	642	3409	5.31
1880	680	3191	4.69
1881	672	3425	5.1
1882	1144	6092	5.33
1883	1570	9030	5.75
1884	3088	16742	5.42
1885	1780	9292	5.22
1886	2104	11512	5.47
1887	2116	13417	6.34
1888	2184	10628	4.87
1889	2180	12986	5.96
1890	3216	19330	6.01
1891	2218	12635	5.7
1892	1842	9388	5.1
1893	1570	10315	6.57
1894	1598	11796	7.38
1895	1598	10514	6.58
1896	1584	9560	6.04
1897	1622	9536	5.88
1898	1842	9129	4.96
1899	1846	9672	5.24
1900	1138	5932	5.21
1876-1900 totals:	39482	224541	5.69

There isn’t much sense in comparing run totals before the formation of the American League in 1901 to today. Baseball in the 19th century was nothing like it is today. Leagues came and went, like the Union Association of 1884 or the Player’s League of 1890 or so many other circuits that no casual fan has ever heard of. Rules that modern fans may take for granted, such as the distance from the pitcher’s mound to home plate or the right of pitchers to not have their pitches called by opposing batters (seriously, this happened), were established through trial and error in these early seasons.

Don’t get me wrong, though, the run totals in baseball over the first 25 years after the National League was established in 1876 are a lot of fun. Baseball will never see anything like it again. There will never be another season like 1894, where the average team topped seven runs a game, all of baseball hit .309, and the Phillies boasted an all-.400 outfield and still finished fourth. There will never be another pitcher like Jack Wadsworth having a lifetime 6.85 ERA that’s just 5 percent worse than the MLB average for the years he played. The offensive boon of the 1920s/’30s and the steroid years have nothing on this wacky era.

II. Formation of the American League and the first Deadball Era

Year	Games	Runs	Average
1901	2220	11073	4.99
1902	2234	9897	4.43
1903	2228	9888	4.44
1904	2498	9302	3.72
1905	2474	9635	3.89
1906	2456	8873	3.61
1907	2466	8690	3.52
1908	2488	8417	3.38
1909	2482	8797	3.54
1910	2498	9577	3.83
1911	2474	11160	4.51
1912	2464	11165	4.53
1913	2468	9961	4.04
1914	3760	14531	3.86
1915	3728	14213	3.81
1916	2494	8889	3.56
1917	2494	8949	3.59
1918	2032	7382	3.63
1919	2236	8668	3.88
1901-19 totals:	48194	189067	3.92

I wasn’t sure how to group these seasons together. While this time period more or less constitutes the Deadball Era, depending on who is consulted, these 19 seasons are more representative as a patchwork of a few sub-eras.

There’s 1901-03 where run totals are noticeably higher, primarily the result of two things, I’m guessing: 1) Foul tips not being called strikes in both leagues until 1903; and 2) A bit of chaos the first few seasons after the formation of the American League in 1901. These were years players jumped leagues irrespective of contracts, rosters sometimes being raided. The two leagues made peace in 1903, and run totals plummeted the following year.

With the exception of 1911 and 1912, Deadball Era scoring levels remained fairly constant from 1904 through 1919. Not counting 1911-12, teams scored an average of 3.72 runs per game 1904-19. We can exclude 1911 and 1912 as the ball wasn’t dead during those years. As noted in The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract, both leagues used a cork-centered ball during these years, causing offense to spike. Emerging use of the emery ball in 1913 restored the advantage to pitchers.

III. A Golden Age for offense

Year	Games	Runs	Average
1920	2468	10761	4.36
1921	2458	11928	4.85
1922	2476	12057	4.87
1923	2466	11871	4.81
1924	2462	11716	4.76
1925	2456	12593	5.13
1926	2468	11443	4.64
1927	2472	11746	4.75
1928	2462	11650	4.73
1929	2458	12749	5.19
1930	2468	13695	5.55
1931	2472	11891	4.81
1932	2466	12114	4.91
1933	2452	10989	4.48
1934	2446	11999	4.91
1935	2456	12026	4.9
1936	2476	12846	5.19
1937	2478	12070	4.87
1938	2446	11969	4.89
1939	2462	11876	4.82
1940	2472	11568	4.68
1941	2488	11168	4.49
1920-41 totals:	54228	262725	4.84

A number of changes happened in baseball around 1920. Eight members of the Chicago White Sox threw the 1919 World Series, leaving baseball scrambling with its first public relations crisis. Then Babe Ruth started hitting more homers than any player before him, attracting more fans than ever at the same time. In the midst, Ray Chapman became the first  major leaguer killed by a pitched ball. For these and perhaps other reasons, Major League Baseball banned the spitball and emery ball in 1921, as noted by Bill James; MLB also elected to keep cleaner balls in play that could be more easily seen by hitters and would be less likely to lose shape late in games.

This led to the first great offensive age of the modern era for baseball, 22 glorious seasons that offered some of the highest RBI totals and batting averages that will ever be seen. There’s a reason Rogers Hornsby’s .424 clip and Hack Wilson’s 191 RBIs have stood as record since these years. While run totals occasionally dipped, such as when less-lively balls were introduced in 1933, scoring stayed high until the majority of big leaguers went to war. I like this kind of baseball, if I’m being candid. It’s a wonder to me there hasn’t been more of it in the modern era.

IV. Second Deadball Era: World War II

Year	Games	Runs	Average
1942	2448	9995	4.08
1943	2476	9687	3.91
1944	2484	10351	4.17
1945	2460	10286	4.18
1942-45 totals:	9868	40319	4.09

Although I haven’t seen it formally recognized as such, I consider World War II the third Deadball Era in baseball’s history, together with the early 20th century and mid-1960s. The run totals are certainly more or less in-line. Like the earliest Deadball Era, this one primarily owed itself to the balls in use. As noted in The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract:

During wartime, the quality of baseballs used was inferior, as there was something in regular baseballs that was needed to make explosives or O.D. green paint or something, and the balls manufactured were rather lifeless.

I was tempted to group 1946 in as part of the war years as scoring didn’t rebound until 1947. I doubt the caliber of balls was inferior in 1946; I just have this theory that long breaks tend to favor pitchers and that it took hitters a year or so to get back to form after the war ended. Some didn’t recover, such as Cecil Travis, never the same player after four years of combat service. The popular story on Travis was that he suffered frostbite at the Battle of the Bulge. His New York Times obituary quoted him saying the real reason he declined was he lost his timing as a hitter.

V. Post-war years, before strike zone change in January 1963

Year	Games	Runs	Average
1946	2484	9953	4.01
1947	2486	10827	4.36
1948	2474	11327	4.58
1949	2480	11425	4.61
1950	2476	12013	4.85
1951	2478	11268	4.55
1952	2478	10349	4.18
1953	2480	11426	4.61
1954	2474	10827	4.38
1955	2468	11068	4.48
1956	2478	11031	4.45
1957	2470	10636	4.31
1958	2470	10578	4.28
1959	2476	10853	4.38
1960	2472	10664	4.31
1961	2860	12942	4.53
1962	3242	14461	4.46
1946-62 totals:	43246	191648	4.43

One of the things I find most interesting about these years is that run totals didn’t change that much, on average, while otherwise baseball was changing tremendously. The majors were integrated. Teams began to relocate for the first time in half a century and four expansion clubs were added. Transcontinental air travel and night games became commonplace. Despite all this, scoring levels remained reasonably constant most of these 17 seasons never quite returning to the stratospheric highs of the ’20s and ’30s or dipping to Deadball levels.

Run totals for this period, 4.43 runs per game were as close to the average for baseball history, 4.53 runs per game of any of the periods listed here. I assume the balance between hitting and pitching was also as close as it’s been for any sustained period. It was certainly better than it is now.

VI. Third Deadball Era: After strike zone change in January 1963

Year	Games	Runs	Average
1963	3238	12780	3.95
1964	3252	13124	4.04
1965	3246	12946	3.99
1966	3230	12900	3.99
1967	3240	12210	3.77
1968	3250	11109	3.42
1963-68 totals:	19456	75069	3.86

Sandy Koufax entered spring training in 1961 boasting a 36-40 lifetime record with a 4.10 ERA. He had nearly as many strikeouts for innings pitched at that point of his career, though the young lefty was also averaging more than five walks every nine innings. Famously, Koufax’s catcher Norm Sherry told him to throw less hard, and Koufax proceeded to go 32-20 with a 3.11 ERA over the next two seasons.

Then, on January 26, 1963, as recounted by Bill James in the historical abstract, the Baseball Rules Committee expanded the strike zone, stating that it went from the shoulders to the bottom of the knee. Now blessed as well with the best pitcher’s park of the 1960s, Dodgers Stadium, Koufax went on one of the finest runs a pitcher’s ever had. Over the ensuing four seasons before his arm gave out, Koufax went 97-27 with a 1.86 ERA (with an unreal 1.97 cumulative FIP), three Cy Young awards, and a National League MVP.

VII. End of an era? After pitching mound was lowered

Year	Games	Runs	Average
1969	3892	15850	4.07
1970	3888	16880	4.34
1971	3876	15073	3.89
1972	3718	13706	3.69
1969-72 totals:	15374	61509	4

Following the offensive nadir that was 1968, when teams averaged their lowest runs per game in 60 years, Major League Baseball lowered the mound from 15 inches to 10 inches. They did it to help hitters, ostensibly, though it didn’t cause run totals to change that much. In fact, certain pitchers got better while others continued to dominate. There are perhaps a few reasons the lower mound didn’t produce the desired effect.

First, as Jim Bouton wrote during spring training in 1969 in Ball Four:

[Seattle Pilots teammate] Mike Marshall is a righthanded pitcher who was 15-9 in the Tiger organization last season. He’s got a master’s degree from Michigan State. He majored in phys. ed, with a minor in mathematics. He’s a cocky kid with a subtle sense of humor. He’s been telling everybody that the new lower mound, which was supposed to help the hitters, actually shortens the distance the pitcher has to throw the ball. Has to do with the hypotenuse of a right triangle decreasing as either side of the triangle decreases. Therefore, says Marshall, any psychological advantage the hitters gain if the pitcher doesn’t stand tall out there will be offset by the pitchers knowing that they are now closer to the plate.

I recently interviewed former Houston Astros pitcher Larry Dierker, who enjoyed a career year in ’69, going 20-13 with a 2.33 ERA and 8.6 WAR. Assuming the lower mound favored hitters, I asked Dierker how he compensated. He told me he hadn’t even noticed. Dierker said:

What I noticed, when I’m on any mound, is whether it feels comfortable or not. But my arm position was around three-quarters, and I think the higher, steeper mound is really the mound that gives a tall, straight overhand pitcher like Jim Palmer a better advantage. Randy Johnson, when he was with us, the Phillies for some reason or another– I know it wasn’t legal– they had a high, steep mound just like they used to have in Dodger Stadium, and that was the only game that he didn’t pitch well for us. He was complaining about the mound from the first inning on. But he was kind of low three-quarters with his arm position, and I think he preferred a little bit more gentle slope.

Jim Palmer, for his part, averaged 19 wins and a 2.47 ERA from 1969 through 1972, twice finishing in the top five for American League Cy Young voting.

VIII. First 20 seasons after the implementation of the DH

Year	Games	Runs	Average
1973	3886	16376	4.21
1974	3890	16046	4.12
1975	3868	16295	4.21
1976	3878	15492	3.99
1977	4206	18803	4.47
1978	4204	17251	4.1
1979	4198	18713	4.46
1980	4210	18053	4.29
1981	2788	11147	4
1982	4214	18110	4.3
1983	4218	18170	4.31
1984	4210	17921	4.26
1985	4206	18216	4.33
1986	4206	18545	4.41
1987	4210	19883	4.72
1988	4200	17380	4.14
1989	4212	17405	4.13
1990	4210	17919	4.26
1991	4208	18127	4.31
1992	4212	17341	4.12
1973-92 totals:	81434	347193	4.26

There’s this myth veteran sportswriters repeat around Hall of Fame voting time that the implementation of the designated hitter rule in 1973 created a greater offensive era. The myth is used to justify Jack Morris’s 3.90 ERA, among other things. The next time someone trots out the myth, please, show them the chart above. Maybe tell them also that for the years Morris pitched in the majors, 1977 through 1994, teams scored an average of 4.34 runs a game. (So we’re clear, I don’t take much issue with Morris being a future Veterans Committee selection for the Hall of Fame; I just am leery of hyperbole.)

With the exception of a few outlying seasons, notably 1987 where a rabbit ball may have been in use, run totals after the 1960s didn’t rise to major heights until the mid-1990s. Scoring rose slightly, granted, but was below the average for baseball history of 4.53 runs per game. The 1970s and ’80s weren’t an era that favored offense. It was more or less average, with pitchers enjoying a slight edge and small ball an oft-used strategy of the day. The sooner this is better understood, the more that players like Dwight Evans, Dave Parker, and Dale Murphy may get recognition from Cooperstown.

IX. The offensive explosion

Year	Games	Runs	Average
1993	4538	20864	4.6
1994	3200	15752	4.92
1995	4034	19554	4.85
1996	4534	22831	5.04
1997	4532	21604	4.77
1998	4864	23297	4.79
1999	4856	24691	5.08
2000	4858	24971	5.14
2001	4858	23199	4.78
2002	4852	22408	4.62
2003	4860	22978	4.73
2004	4856	23376	4.81
2005	4862	22325	4.59
2006	4858	23599	4.86
2007	4862	23322	4.8
2008	4856	22585	4.65
2009	4860	22419	4.61
1993-2009 totals:	79140	379775	4.8

There still isn’t consensus about what caused run totals to increase so much in the mid-1990s and early-2000s, and I don’t know if there will ever be. It’s a controversial, polarizing subject, and I don’t know if all the variables from the era will ever fully come to light. The common suggested culprits for the spike in offense, I think, are steroids, expansion, weaker pitching and a livelier ball. It’s somewhat of a cop-out, I’ll admit, to say I suspect that a combination of these and other factors engendered the greatest offensive era in baseball since the 1930s. Strictly speaking, though, there’s no quick explanation for the era. There generally isn’t in baseball history. I’m reminded of the Oscar Wilde quote, “The truth is rarely pure and never simple.”

X. What’s going on?

Year	Games	Runs	Average
2010	4860	21308	4.38
2011	4858	20808	4.28
2012	4860	21017	4.32
2013	4862	20255	4.17
2014	3676	15037	4.09
2010-14 totals:	23116	98425	4.26

Something’s been happening in baseball over the past five seasons, causing run totals to trend down. I don’t know what the reason is, but we’re clearly in an age for pitchers. It’s why Clayton Kershaw is having the best season of any hurler in 15 years, why Felix Hernandez, Adam Wainwright and others aren’t far off. We’re heading toward the fourth Deadball Era if this trend doesn’t reverse. And if that happens, fans can bet on more rule changes from Major League Baseball to liven the game.