Baseball: Past and Present

 [An ad for Ty Cobb’s 1917 acting debut | Photo found at Our Game]

My girlfriend and I were struck this weekend to find a 1920 silent film that Babe Ruth starred in, Headin’ Home available on Netflix streaming. While we only got through a few minutes of the film, which played like a collection of stock footage and is of interest mainly for having a young, pinstriped Ruth in it, my girlfriend encouraged me afterward to look at other times ballplayers have starred in movies. It’s somewhat of a bygone tradition in baseball.

Baseball players still have cameos or make minor appearances in movies these days, with Wally Joyner making something of a name for himself in Mormon films. Near as I can tell, though, it’s been awhile since a baseball player starred in a film. It’s not like the era of Babe Ruth starring in four films including 1942’s “The Pride of the Yankees.” Here are seven other notable players who received star billing in a movie:

Christy Mathewson in “Matty’s Decision,” 1915: Christy Mathewson was nearing the end of his Hall of Fame career when he appeared in this film, intended to be the first of several for him with Universal. Save for an appearance in a 1917 baseball documentary, this was it for Mathewson as an actor. The plot, a full synopsis of which can be found here, revolves around Mathewson and his friend Eddie falling for the same woman and her father deciding that whoever triumphs in a pitching game can marry her. Though Mathewson loses, Eddie sees how distraught he is afterward and sends Matty a note saying he can have the girl.

Mike Donlin in “Right Off the Bat,” 1915: I’d be remiss if I didn’t include Mike Donlin, who hit .333 lifetime and might be in the Hall of Fame had he not retired to pursue a vaudeville career with his wife Mabel Hite. He returned to baseball, was never the same player and returned to acting thereafter. Donlin’s IMDB page lists 66 acting credits in films starring the likes of John Barrymore, Buster Keaton and Wallace Beery, though it’s mostly bit roles. One of Donlin’s few starring appearances came in this five-reel comedy, which I learned of through a much longer look at old-time ballplayer actors at John Thorn’s site.

Ty Cobb in “Somewhere in Georgia,” 1917: Ty Cobb had a unique screen career, even receiving writing credits for, get this, a few 1950s television programs including “The Adventures of Rin Tin Tin.” Prior to this, Cobb acted. The New-York Tribune praised his starring turn in the 1917 short “Somewhere in Georgia,” though it may be worth noting that its sports editor Grantland Rice wrote the film. The Tribune gushed:

Ty Cobb and Grantland Rice [debuted] on the screen yesterday via the Sunbeam Motion Picture Company. Grantland Rice furnished the story ‘Somewhere in Georgia,’ which is described as ‘a thrilling drama of love and baseball in six innings.’ It is all of that, and as an actor Ty Cobb is a huge success. In fact, he is so good that he shows all the others up.

Others had nice things to say about Cobb’s acting, though, including the Altoona [New York] Tribune and, as noted at Thorn’s site, Variety Magazine. The latter noted, ““Inasmuch as …Cobb is considered about the greatest ballplayer in the world, it goes without saying that [the film] is going to make a ten-strike with Young America.”

Lou Gehrig in “Rawhide,” 1938: I rarely use pictures on this website, as I’m reluctant to violate copyright laws. I hope my use of the picture at right qualifies as Fair Use. There’s simply no other way to capture the awesomeness of Lou Gehrig’s sole film appearance. Currently available on Netflix streaming, it seems like a must-watch for anyone into kitsch. The premise: Gehrig is “a former baseball champion who retires to a ranch where he helps break up a destructive racket in stock feed prices.” You can’t make this stuff up.

Jackie Robinson in “The Jackie Robinson Story,” 1950: Like every player here, more or less, Robinson played himself in his big screen debut. It only makes sense. Robinson was one of a kind, one of the more outspoken individuals in baseball history. While Chadwick Boseman was reasonably passable playing Robinson in the reasonably passable “42” in 2013, there was no replacing the original. That said, one IMDB reviewer noted that Robinson’s costar in his 1950 film debut, the recently-deceased Ruby Dee said Robinson felt out of place in it.

Mickey Mantle and Roger Maris in “Safe at Home!” 1962: There are many reasons ballplayers don’t star in as many movies today. The main one, I’m guessing: They don’t need the money. Roger Maris is a case in point. In the days before free agency and other factors sent salaries skyrocketing, Maris wasn’t financially set by his historic 1961 season. He and his brother wound up running a beer distribution business after he retired.

Maris resigned with the Yankees in February 1962 for $72,000, about $568,000 in today’s dollars. Around this time, newspapers announced that Maris and Mantle would be filming “Safe at Home!” in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, their spring training headquarters at the time. The black-and-white, 84-minute quickie film came out less than two months later. My girlfriend owns a DVD copy and the few minutes we watched were strictly kid fare, save for a wry supporting turn by “I Love Lucy” co-star William Frawley. Maris and Mantle fared better a couple months later with their cameos  in the Doris Day and Cary Grant classic, “That Touch of Mink.”

Found on Newspapers.com

I was enthralled when I came across this piece, an interview with a prominent baseball researcher of the 1920s suggesting Babe Ruth’s home runs were hurting baseball. Jacob Pomrenke of the Society for American Baseball Research told me after I first shared this piece a few weeks ago on Twitter that such stories were common in Babe Ruth’s era as he became the game’s first great slugger.

I suppose it’s human nature to come up with inane rationalizations to justify resisting change, and perhaps no player in baseball history changed the game as much as the Sultan of Swat. There were probably some growing pains for lots of people interested in baseball while Ruth was forever reshaping play. All the same, pieces like the one above seem wonderfully arcane nearly a century on. Historians seem to have long since settled on the narrative that Ruth saved fan interest in baseball, practically on his own, following the Black Sox Scandal. It’s a little surreal coming across pieces that run counter to this. But that’s part of the fun of historical research.

An added bonus, as Jacob pointed out to me: This story ran in the Boston Post, no doubt eager to bash Ruth, barely a year removed at the time from his sale to New York. Geographically, it’s the same press corps that hounded Ted Williams much of his career so I suppose I shouldn’t be too surprised.

[Babe Ruth with Red Sox teammates, 1915 | Library of Congress]

A frequent refrain from supporters of Jack Morris’s Hall of Fame candidacy is that he pitched the greatest game in World Series history. Certainly, Morris placed himself in unique company in 1991 when he became the third Fall Classic pitcher to hurl a 10-inning shutout after Clem Labine in 1956 [hat tip to Devon Young] and Christy Mathewson in 1913. Morris is also the 10th and most recent pitcher with a Game 7 shutout, joining men like Dizzy Dean in 1934, Sandy Koufax in 1965 and Bret Saberhagen in 1985. In addition, Morris is the only pitcher in World Series history with an extra inning, complete game victory in Game 7.

For some fans, all of this may be more than enough to anoint Morris. By various objective measures, though, Morris’s masterpiece is far from the greatest World Series pitching performance. There’s Don Larsen’s perfect game in 1956 or journeyman Howard Ehmke’s surprise start in 1929 where the junkballer set a record at the time by striking out 13 stunned Chicago Cubs including Hall of Famers Rogers Hornsby, Hack Wilson and Kiki Cuyler twice apiece. Then there’s Bob Gibson’s five-hit shutout in 1968 where he set a World Series record that still stands with 17 strikeouts.

Game 2, 1916 World Series – Boston 2, Brooklyn 1
Pitching	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	GSc	WPA	aLI	RE24
Sherry Smith, L (0-1)	13.1	7	2	2	6	2	0	51	82	0.582	1.77	3.3
Babe Ruth, W (1-0)	14	6	1	1	3	4	1	48	97	1.082	1.54	4.8
Stats provided by Baseball-Reference.com | Full box score

By Game Score, the best World Series pitching performance came in 1916 by Babe Ruth with a 97. [Morris is tied for 38th at 84.] Ruth set a World Series record that still stands when he went 14 innings for the Boston Red Sox in Game 2 on October 9, beating the Brooklyn Dodgers 2-1. He even drove in one of Boston’s runs, the New York Times noted, when Brooklyn second baseman George Cutshaw juggled a grounder in the third inning, allowing Everett Scott to score.

No one ever really talks about Game 2 of the 1916 World Series anymore, though it’s a great story. The day after it happened, the New York Times described the game as “the most thrilling world’s series battle ever fought.”

It was Ruth’s first start in a postseason game, as the 21-year-old southpaw had been kept in reserve for the 1915 World Series after going 18-8 with a 2.44 ERA that season. Robert Creamer explained in his signature Ruth biography that Red Sox manager Bill Carrigan had elected to primarily use right-handed pitchers in the 1915 Series against Philadelphia and its slugger Gavvy Cravath who had hit 24 homers in the regular season, best in the modern era to that point. Ruth got one pinch hit appearance in the Series while Boston won 4-1 and kept Cravath homer-less with a .125 batting average.

Ruth earned the nod for Game 2 of the 1916 Series after going 23-12 with an American League best 1.75 ERA [as well as a combined 10.4 WAR between pitching and hitting.] Ruth struggled early in his World Series pitching debut, surrendering an inside-the-park home run to Hy Myers in the first inning after, as Creamer noted, two Boston outfielders tripped in pursuit of the ball.  Teammate Jack Barry wrote the following day in a presumably ghostwritten Boston Post column, “Ruth oftentimes has his hardest session at the beginning. We all were sure as the game went along that Ruth would get better.”

Pitching in cavernous Braves Field with 44,000 fans packed in, Ruth threw 13 innings of shutout ball the remainder of the game, allowing five hits and three walks. As Creamer noted, Ruth pitched a no-hitter the final seven innings. Barry wrote that Myers’ homer came off a high fastball and that Ruth kept Myers hitless thereafter by pitching him low. Ruth escaped trouble, Barry noted, recording consecutive ground outs to close the eighth inning after Brooklyn put runners on second and third. Later in the 13th inning, Red Sox left fielder Duffy Lewis provided a running catch off a Jake Daubert fly ball.

The game finally ended amid fading daylight when pinch hitter Del Gainer provided an RBI single in the 14th inning. Having now taken the first two games, Boston would go on to win the Series 4-1. “I told you a year ago I could take care of those National League bums, and you never gave me a chance,” Creamer quoted Ruth telling Carrigan after Game 2. “Forget it Babe,” Carrigan is said to have replied. “You made monkeys out of them today.”

At least a few prominent writers praised Brooklyn’s hurler Sherry Smith, something of a surprise starter as the New York Times noted in its game coverage. [Major League Baseball historian John Thorn tells me there were occasional surprise World Series starters back then, Ehmke being perhaps the most famous.] Hugh Fullerton, a few years away from helping break the Black Sox Scandal, wrote that Ruth was saved by superior defense. Barry also wrote that Ruth received better support. Grantland Rice wrote in his syndicated column the following day:

Smith pitched the better game. For thirteen innings he had the Red Sox lashed to the phantom, swinging as helpless as the bewildered old dame who attempted to sweep back the ocean with a mop. They couldn’t hit with a machine gun loaded with buckshot.

Ruth pitched twice more in postseason play, winning two games in the 1918 World Series. His all-time Fall Classic pitching line: 3-0 with a 0.87 ERA, two complete games and a shutout. Somehow, the best was yet to come.

Every so often, I see tweets or articles from reputable sources repeating a long-since debunked myth. This one was posted about a week ago:

Games like Jered Weaver’s tonight, pitching to score, cost Jack Morris the Hall of Fame. Not good for ERA.

— Lyle Spencer (@LyleMSpencer) August 25, 2014

Lyle Spencer, a writer for MLB.com, is no different than a lot of other veteran reporters or fans who keep repeating this idea that Jack Morris pitched to the score. Morris popularized the notion, I think, to bolster his Hall of Fame candidacy despite a lifetime 3.90 ERA. As far as Hall campaign strategies go, it’s probably been one of the more effective ones. Morris just missed induction through the writers ballot and may be a future Veterans Committee pick.

Never mind that Joe Sheehan picked apart the myth of Morris pitching to the score in a landmark 2003 piece for Baseball Prospectus. In the piece, which is long but worth a full read, Sheehan examined everyone of Morris’s 527 career starts and discovered that Morris put his team behind in roughly two-thirds of them. That Morris had 254 wins while allowing nearly four runs a game is largely a credit to pitching for one of the best teams of the 1980s, the Detroit Tigers and getting at least five runs of support in nearly half his starts.

Sheehan’s piece is easily found in Google, as are any number of related ones that have come since. It’s like the majority of people who follow baseball aren’t even reading them.

As an enthusiast of sabermetrics, I see the world through proverbial rose-colored glasses sometimes. Primarily through this site and Twitter, I associate with a lot of researchers, analysts and fellow baseball writers, people who can concisely explain why they favor one version of Wins Above Replacement over another. I forget that most of the baseball universe doesn’t work this way.

I’m reminded of a conversation I had with a fellow who wrote at Baseball-Reference.com’s blog. What he told me: Most fans aren’t like us. They go with traditional stats like batting average or RBIs and don’t seek any kind of deeper statistical appreciation of baseball. They embrace the game’s myths, like Abner Doubleday inventing baseball or Morris pitching to the score. My friends and I? We maybe comprise less than one percent of all people into baseball.

People change, granted. Peter Gammons, among others, changed his mind on Morris pitching to the score after reading Sheehan’s piece. In time, maybe others will follow. But I suspect articles and tweets like the one above will keep coming and more people like me will keep writing pieces denouncing them until this issue, finally, is completely beaten to death. Trying to get people to see things differently seems like a fool’s errand sometimes. I know I often feel like I’m preaching to a choir of like-minded individuals.

The baseball world and the world in general remains so polarized. It’s a shame Jack Morris’s career has become a reminder of this. He was a fine pitcher, one of the best of his era and his work in Game 7 of the 1991 World Series was masterful. I agree with people like Joe Posnanski who’ve written that all this debate about him pitching to the score detracts from this.

For much of the early part of this season, it looked like Victor Martinez might join an exclusive club: players with more home runs than strikeouts in a season. It used to happen with some regularity, though since strikeout rates rose in the 1950s it’s become almost unheard of. Since 1958, just George Brett and Barry Bonds have accomplished the feat. Others like Albert Pujols and Tony Gwynn have come close. Martinez likely will not, as he has 27 homers and 39 strikeouts with a month to play.

According to the Baseball-Reference.com Play Index tool, 25 players in the modern era have had more home runs than strikeouts in a season where they qualified for the batting title. In all, the feat has been accomplished 65 times since 1901 led by Joe DiMaggio who did it seven times and famously just missed having more home runs than strikeouts for his career. Yogi Berra, Bill Dickey, Ted Kluszewski and Frank McCormick all had more homers than strikeouts at least four seasons apiece.

The list below offers a “Who’s Who” of great individual years in baseball history: DiMaggio and Ted Williams in 1941; Stan Musial when he just missed winning the Triple Crown in 1948 and collected 429 total bases, a mark no one’s topped since. My favorite of the bunch? Nap Lajoie, who took advantage of high scoring and foul tips not yet being called strikes in the expansion American League in 1901 to hit .426 with 14 home runs, nine strikeouts and 24 walks. Basically, everything Lajoie saw in 1901, he hit [though the Cincinnati Enquirer suggested late in the season that Lajoie was closing out with “don’t-care-a-rap” play as his team stumbled to fourth.]

That said, having a staggering level of offense is by no means the rule for making this list. Frank McCormick hit .269 when he had more homers than strikeouts in 1941, with adjusted rates of run creation and total offensive production barely above league average. Joe Sewell would have made this list more than twice with any kind of power. From 1925 through his final year in the majors of 1933, the Hall of Fame shortstop averaged four home runs and five strikeouts per season.

All this being said, I offer the following list chronologically:

	Player	HR	SO	Year	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	RBI	BB	BA	OBP	SLG
1	Nap Lajoie	14	9	1901	131	582	544	145	232	48	14	125	24	.426	.463	.643
2	Jimmy Ryan	6	5	1902	120	540	484	92	155	32	6	44	43	.320	.384	.448
3	Ed Delahanty	10	9	1902	123	539	473	103	178	43	14	93	62	.376	.453	.590
4	Ken Williams	39	31	1922	153	678	585	128	194	34	11	155	74	.332	.413	.627
5	Irish Meusel	19	16	1923	146	648	595	102	177	22	14	125	38	.297	.341	.477
6	Tris Speaker	17	15	1923	150	695	574	133	218	59	11	130	93	.380	.469	.610
7	Ken Williams	18	17	1924	115	483	398	78	129	21	4	84	69	.324	.425	.533
8	Ken Williams	25	14	1925	102	462	411	83	136	31	5	105	37	.331	.390	.613
9	Irish Meusel	21	19	1925	135	558	516	82	169	35	8	111	26	.328	.363	.548
10	Billy Southworth	16	10	1926	135	566	507	99	162	28	7	99	33	.320	.365	.497
11	Mickey Cochrane	12	7	1927	126	507	432	80	146	20	6	80	50	.338	.409	.495
12	Lefty O’Doul	32	19	1929	154	732	638	152	254	35	6	122	76	.398	.465	.622
13	Joe Sewell	7	4	1929	152	671	578	90	182	38	3	73	48	.315	.372	.427
14	Mel Ott	42	38	1929	150	675	545	138	179	37	2	151	113	.328	.449	.635
15	Lefty O’Doul	32	19	1929	154	732	638	152	254	35	6	122	76	.398	.465	.622
16	Al Simmons	36	34	1930	138	611	554	152	211	41	16	165	39	.381	.423	.708
17	Lefty O’Doul	21	20	1932	148	655	595	120	219	32	8	90	50	.368	.423	.555
18	Joe Sewell	11	3	1932	125	576	503	95	137	21	3	68	56	.272	.349	.392
19	Bill Dickey	15	13	1932	108	459	423	66	131	20	4	84	34	.310	.361	.482
20	Bill Terry	28	20	1932	154	677	643	124	225	42	11	117	32	.350	.382	.580
21	Lou Gehrig	49	31	1934	154	690	579	128	210	40	6	166	109	.363	.465	.706
22	Ernie Lombardi	12	6	1935	120	351	332	36	114	23	3	64	16	.343	.379	.539
23	Bill Dickey	14	11	1935	120	491	448	54	125	26	6	81	35	.279	.339	.458
24	Arky Vaughan	19	18	1935	137	609	499	108	192	34	10	99	97	.385	.491	.607
25	Charlie Gehringer	19	16	1935	150	709	610	123	201	32	8	108	79	.330	.409	.502
26	Bill Dickey	22	16	1936	112	472	423	99	153	26	8	107	46	.362	.428	.617
27	Charlie Gehringer	15	13	1936	154	731	641	144	227	60	12	116	83	.354	.431	.555
28	Lou Gehrig	49	46	1936	155	719	579	167	205	37	7	152	130	.354	.478	.696
29	Joe DiMaggio	46	37	1937	151	692	621	151	215	35	15	167	64	.346	.412	.673
30	Bill Dickey	29	22	1937	140	609	530	87	176	35	2	133	73	.332	.417	.570
31	Ernie Lombardi	19	14	1938	129	529	489	60	167	30	1	95	40	.342	.391	.524
32	Joe DiMaggio	32	21	1938	145	660	599	129	194	32	13	140	59	.324	.386	.581
33	Bill Dickey	27	22	1938	132	533	454	84	142	27	4	115	75	.313	.412	.568
34	Joe DiMaggio	30	20	1939	120	524	462	108	176	32	6	126	52	.381	.448	.671
35	Ernie Lombardi	20	19	1939	130	494	450	43	129	26	2	85	35	.287	.342	.487
36	Frank McCormick	18	16	1939	156	688	630	99	209	41	4	128	40	.332	.374	.495
37	Joe DiMaggio	30	20	1939	120	524	462	108	176	32	6	126	52	.381	.448	.671
38	Joe DiMaggio	31	30	1940	132	572	508	93	179	28	9	133	61	.352	.425	.626
39	Frank McCormick	17	13	1941	154	653	603	77	162	31	5	97	40	.269	.318	.421
40	Ted Williams	37	27	1941	143	606	456	135	185	33	3	120	147	.406	.553	.735
41	Joe DiMaggio	30	13	1941	139	622	541	122	193	43	11	125	76	.357	.440	.643
42	Frank McCormick	20	17	1944	153	645	581	85	177	37	3	102	57	.305	.371	.482
43	Tommy Holmes	13	11	1944	155	705	631	93	195	42	6	73	61	.309	.372	.456
44	Frank McCormick	20	17	1944	153	645	581	85	177	37	3	102	57	.305	.371	.482
45	Tommy Holmes	28	9	1945	154	714	636	125	224	47	6	117	70	.352	.420	.577
46	Johnny Mize	51	42	1947	154	664	586	137	177	26	2	138	74	.302	.384	.614
47	Willard Marshall	36	30	1947	155	655	587	102	171	19	6	107	67	.291	.366	.528
48	Lou Boudreau	18	9	1948	152	676	560	116	199	34	6	106	98	.355	.453	.534
49	Johnny Mize	40	37	1948	152	658	560	110	162	26	4	125	94	.289	.395	.564
50	Joe DiMaggio	39	30	1948	153	669	594	110	190	26	11	155	67	.320	.396	.598
51	Stan Musial	39	34	1948	155	698	611	135	230	46	18	131	79	.376	.450	.702
52	Yogi Berra	28	12	1950	151	656	597	116	192	30	6	124	55	.322	.383	.533
53	Andy Pafko	36	32	1950	146	595	514	95	156	24	8	92	69	.304	.397	.591
54	Yogi Berra	27	20	1951	141	594	547	92	161	19	4	88	44	.294	.350	.492
55	Don Mueller	16	13	1951	122	493	469	58	130	10	7	69	19	.277	.307	.431
56	Yogi Berra	30	24	1952	142	603	534	97	146	17	1	98	66	.273	.358	.478
57	Ted Kluszewski	40	34	1953	149	629	570	97	180	25	0	108	55	.316	.380	.570
58	Ted Kluszewski	49	35	1954	149	658	573	104	187	28	3	141	78	.326	.407	.642
59	Yogi Berra	27	20	1955	147	615	541	84	147	20	3	108	60	.272	.349	.470
60	Ted Kluszewski	47	40	1955	153	686	612	116	192	25	0	113	66	.314	.382	.585
61	Ted Kluszewski	35	31	1956	138	574	517	91	156	14	1	102	49	.302	.362	.536
62	Yogi Berra	30	29	1956	140	596	521	93	155	29	2	105	65	.298	.378	.534
63	Vic Power	16	14	1958	145	620	590	98	184	37	10	80	20	.312	.332	.490
64	George Brett	24	22	1980	117	515	449	87	175	33	9	118	58	.390	.454	.664
65	Barry Bonds	45	41	2004	147	617	373	129	135	27	3	101	232	.362	.609	.812

In yesterday’s post, I noted that Mike Trout was on the verge of having the most Wins Above Replacement in his first four seasons of any center fielder in baseball history. Longtime reader Devon Young commented that Trout already has the most WAR of any player through his age 22 season, which got me thinking.

As I replied to Devon, Trout’s comps through age 22 are impressive, though I don’t place a ton of stock in them. The reason? There simply haven’t been that many players in baseball history who’ve racked up a lot of WAR before age 22. It’s rare that players make the majors and receive significant playing time before their mid-20s. Sometimes, this is due to factors beyond playing ability. Some players go to college first. Others are kept in the minors longer than necessary, perhaps with an aging, expensive veteran occupying their position with the big league club.

I decided to see how Trout might rate historically through a different lens: WAR per 162 games over a player’s first four seasons. I got onto this line of thought after noting that Trout and Joe DiMaggio had roughly the same lifetime WAR through their first four years, though Trout’s done it in 81 fewer games. The following is an exercise that rewards this sort of quicker achievement.

The following are the 25 highest totals for WAR per 162 games among position players of the modern era who had at least 15 WAR over their first four seasons. As an aside, I’ll break ties by favoring which player has the overall most WAR for their first four seasons:

Rk	Player	WAR per 162 games, first four seasons	Total WAR, first four seasons	G	PA
1	Ted Williams	9.5	34.2	586	2613
2	Mike Trout	9.3	26.6	463	2070
3	Willie Mays	8.8	24.8	458	1978
4	Stan Musial	8.6	24	455	1953
5	Kenny Lofton	8.1	21.4	428	1910

It’s no sad consolation for Trout being second to Williams here and if we do another version of this exercise in a year, perhaps Trout will be first. The Splendid Splinter has long since had the standard for triumphant entries into the majors, offering a .356/.481/.642 slash over his first four seasons and hitting .406 in his third year. Kept in the minors through 1938 over concerns about his attitude, Williams was more or less in full stride by his debut with the Red Sox. His 190 OPS+ over his first four seasons is identical to his rate for the stat lifetime.

Mays and Musial’s inclusions here aren’t surprising, though I’m struck by Kenny Lofton. I recently wrote of Barry Bonds as the most underrated player of the 1990s, though I could maybe give it to Lofton now. Similar to Tim Raines, I generally picture Lofton as a journeyman over the second half of his career. I forget the young speedster who electrified baseball, leading the league in steals his first five full seasons while offering a .316/.386/.435 slash. I assume Hall of Fame voters forgot this as well, as Lofton received 3.2 percent of the vote his sole appearance on the writers ballot.

Rk	Player	WAR per 162 games, first four seasons	Total WAR, first four seasons	G	PA
6	Evan Longoria	7.9	27.4	563	2414
7	Dick Allen	7.8	22.7	474	2040
8	Joe DiMaggio	7.7	26.3	554	2545
9	Rogers Hornsby	7.7	19.8	417	1665
10	Wade Boggs	7.6	27	576	2550

As fellow baseball blogger William Juliano told me today on Twitter, using WAR to make comparisons across eras is shaky. This, William explained, is because WAR for the past decade or so includes defensive data gathered through sophisticated means, while older WAR more or less gauges defense through box scores. While this fact alone isn’t enough for me to abandon this exercise, as WAR skews more toward a player’s offensive contributions, it isn’t insignificant either. Take DiMaggio, for instance.

A surprising amount of DiMaggio’s early value comes from his defense. Perhaps if there was more defensive play-by-play data available for his era, he might rate closer to Trout here. As it stands, finishing eighth-best seems like no slight. [I’m struck in general by the number of legendary players like DiMaggio comprising the bulk of the ranks here. One of my favorite things about WAR is that it often reinforces popular perceptions of players like the Yankee Clipper. In sum, I assume WAR helps the cause of players like DiMaggio more than it hurts them.]

Rk	Player	WAR per 162 games, first four seasons	Total WAR, first four seasons	G	PA
11	Arky Vaughan	7.6	26.7	567	2479
12	Albert Pujols	7.5	29.2	629	2728
13	Bobby Grich	7.5	15.3	332	1367
14	Johnny Mize	7.4	26.2	572	2368
15	Nomar Garciaparra	7.3	20.4	455	2074

The Veterans Committee gave Mize and Vaughan their due in the 1980s, though they perhaps deserved it far sooner. By WAR, Mize and Vaughan were nearly equal to DiMaggio in the 1930s. Like Grich, Mize and Vaughan probably rate among the most underrated players all-time. All three sustained their value better than Nomar, who’s about to have a similarly lackluster debut on the Hall of Fame ballot.

Rk	Player	WAR per 162 games, first four seasons	Total WAR, first four seasons	G	PA
16	Eddie Mathews	7.2	25.7	581	2490
17	John Valentin	7.2	18.8	421	1727
18	Cal Ripken Jr.	7.1	22.3	507	2137
19	Charlie Keller	7	23.3	541	2370
20	Mike Piazza	7	16.9	389	1592

Bill James has spoken of the joy of baseball research where the results surprise him. Part of the reason I enjoy exercises like this is I wind up with players like Valentin who look gloriously out of place. Valentin’s part of the top 25 because of his 1995 season, his fourth in the majors, where he racked up 8.3 WAR to go with 27 homers, 102 RBI and a ninth place finish in American League MVP voting. He never had another year with even All Star-caliber WAR, though he finished with 32.5 WAR lifetime, a serviceable if generally unremarkable player.

Rk	Player	WAR per 162 games, first four seasons	Total WAR, first four seasons	G	PA
21	Jackie Robinson	6.9	25.6	598	2666
22	Ralph Kiner	6.8	25.4	604	2582
23	Frank Thomas	6.8	22.4	531	2328
24	Rickey Henderson	6.8	21.2	504	2269
25	Josh Donaldson	6.8	15.8	374	1555

I’m glad to see Kiner here, as he led the National League in home runs his first seven seasons. Next to Babe Ruth, he might be the best slugger out of the gate in baseball history. And this whole exercise would seem foolhardy without the presence of Robinson, even if he’s admittedly the oldest “young” player of this bunch. It’d be a shame not to include the player the Rookie of the Year award was created for. And Robinson’s WAR his first four seasons looks like one more reason he and so many other great black players were long overdue by 1947.

One final thing– Donaldson and Eric Davis each had 15.8 WAR, 374 games, and 6.8 WAR per 162 games through their first four seasons. I’m giving Donaldson the edge because his fourth season isn’t over yet, and I assume he’ll boost his numbers through the pennant race unfolding in the AL West. That’s not to slight Davis or the other 40 or so players with at least 6 WAR per 162 games over their first four seasons. If this exercise reminded me of anything, it’s the number of good young players who’ve shined throughout baseball history.

Five notable young players who fell short of the top 25: Barry Bonds (6.7 WAR per 162 games his first four seasons), Ken Griffey Jr. (6), Fred Lynn (5.4), Mickey Mantle (6.4),  Alex Rodriguez (6.6)

Rk	Player	WAR first four years	WAR per 162 gm	Defensive runs saved	Span	Age [on Jun 30]	G	PA
1-Tie	Mike Trout	26.3	9.2	7	2011-14	19-22	462	2065
1-Tie	Joe DiMaggio	26.3	7.7	30	1936-39	21-24	554	2545
3	Willie Mays	24.8	8.8	39.8	1951-55	20-24	458	1978
4	Kenny Lofton	21.4	8.1	52.1	1991-94	24-27	428	1910
5	Ken Griffey	21.3	6	8.5	1989-92	19-22	578	2422
6	Vada Pinson	19.9	6.6	18.7	1958-61	19-22	489	2183
7	Grady Sizemore	19.8	6.1	10	2004-07	21-24	525	2364
8	Cesar Cedeno	19.1	5.9	1	1970-73	19-22	529	2227
9	Earl Averill	19	5.1	-23	1929-32	27-30	599	2699
10	Al Simmons	18.9	5.5	5	1924-27	22-25	558	2443

I saw Mike Trout play for the first time last Friday. I make it to three or five games a year and aside from going to spend time with family and friends, my goal is generally to see historic players in action. Trout more than qualifies. Four seasons into an already-storied career, the Los Angeles Angels center fielder looks like his generation’s version of Mickey Mantle or Willie Mays. In fact, going off Wins Above Replacement, Trout’s better. By WAR, Mike Trout could be the best young center fielder in baseball history.

The chart above represents the 10 best WAR rankings, via Baseball-Reference.com, for center fielders who logged at least 75 percent of their games at the position over their first four seasons. Entering today, Trout was tied with Joe DiMaggio for first with 26.3 WAR. If Trout has a good game tonight, he’ll be in the lead tomorrow [though not for Fangraphs’ version of WAR, where DiMaggio bests Trout over their first four seasons, 28.7 to 27.] More impressive, Trout accumulated his WAR in 82 fewer games than the Yankee Clipper, just beating out Mays and– this surprised me– Kenny Lofton, for best WAR per 162 games, at 9.2. That’s an MVP-caliber rate for Trout’s career.

Another thing that gets me about the list above is that most of the players on it went on to have stellar careers. DiMaggio, Mays, Earl Averill and Al Simmons are all deservedly in the Hall of Fame. Ken Griffey Jr. will be in a couple more years. I could make Cooperstown cases for Lofton, Vada Pinson and Cesar Cedeno and one can only wonder what might have been if Grady Sizemore hadn’t been beset with injuries. Oh well, Grady, we’ll always have this Sports Illustrated cover.

I keep wondering where the fail-safe point is with Trout, when we’ll know for sure that he’s another legend, not a Pinson or a Cedeno who started off so brightly and then declined precipitously. [Cedeno’s early comparisons to Mays looked like a joke by the end of his career.] I’d say we’re close right now on Trout, maybe a year or two off. I certainly got my money’s worth last Friday, watching Trout hit a homer that cleared the left-center fence in a hurry. I’ll be sure to see him play again before too long.