Why I love baseball history

Thursday afternoon, news broke on Twitter that Derek Jeter would be out injured until at least the All Star Break and the response was fairly predictable. While Yankee fans bemoaned yet another sidelined Bomber, opposing fans took the opportunity to bash Jeter and the organization. In the midst, my friend Melissa tweeted a call for fans to respect Yankee history and resist the urge to pile on. Of course that drew one person who argued with her. Melissa wrote the tweet above in response.

I met Melissa awhile back when I tweeted that I could name more members of the 1919 Black Sox than cast members of “Jersey Shore.” (In the interest of not sounding like an elitist, let me add that I can also name more Black Sox than current U.S. senators, Supreme Court justices or foreign heads of state.) People like Melissa and I are in a minority among baseball fans, particularly younger ones. I know full well how little use most fans have for baseball history. I see the traffic numbers for this website, pedestrian even when we’re posting good content regularly. I see the shrinking membership for the Society for American Baseball Research, even while baseball attendance has increased markedly over the past 20 years. People still love baseball, but its history most can take or leave. That’s unfortunate.

I’m drawn to baseball as a writer, historian and journalist. I love the stories. When people ask me which team I’m a fan of, I sometimes say I’m a fan of baseball history. It’s a little dorky but it’s true. While technically I’ve been a San Francisco Giants fan since grade school, it’s baseball history, all 150-plus years of it that I really love. I’ve been reading about it since I was eight and what I’ve found is that most every team has something cool in its past, something worthy of respect regardless of uniform colors. I think of Ted Williams serving in two wars, first as a flight instructor in World War II then as a combat pilot in Korea. I think of the Dodgers signing Jackie Robinson. As for the Yankees, few moments in baseball history yield the emotional impact of Lou Gehrig’s “Luckiest Man on the Face of the Earth” speech. Any opposing fan not moved at least somewhat by the Iron Horse’s words is either unaware of their existence or a cold-hearted cynic.

It’s not just baseball history that I love but history in general. I enjoy accumulating knowledge and anecdotes. I like the better understanding of the world the information gives me. I like to think it makes me a better writer and wiser person. More than that, I just enjoy learning about history. A writer I like, Sarah Vowell is, similar to me, a history nerd. Some years ago in an essay, she expounded on this, writing:

On the first day of school when I was a kid, the guy teaching history– and it was almost always a guy, wearing a lot of brown– would cough up the pompous same old old same old about how if we failed to learn the lessons of history then we would be doomed to repeat them. Which is true if you’re one of the people who grow up to run things, but not as practical if your destiny is a nice small life. For example, thanks to my tenth-grade world history textbook’s chapter on the Napoleonic Wars, I know not to invade Russia in the wintertime. This information would have been good for an I-told-you-so toast at Hitler’s New Year’s party in 1943, but for me, knowing not to trudge my troops through the snow to Moscow is not so handy day-to-day.

The other sort of useful thing the history teacher in the brown jacket never really said, probably because he would have been laughed out of the room, was this: knowing what happened when and where is fun.

Ultimately, that’s what baseball history is for me: fun. Its importance in understanding what goes on in baseball today is debatable, seeing as baseball changes from generation to generation and other tools are more useful for deconstructing the current game. Knowing that Joe Sewell struck out as many times between 1926 and 1932 as the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners did on Wednesday night– 40 times– won’t explain why strikeouts are up so dramatically in the majors these days. It won’t say whether baseball’s gotten better or worse over the years, even if some may attempt to use the stat that way. But it’s a fun, quirky fact that provides some contrast. Baseball history is littered with these. (Another fun Sewell fact while we’re on the subject: He had six seasons with at least 600 plate appearances where he struck out fewer than 10 times. Who does that anymore? Answer: No one.)

In February, I got my eight-year-old nephew Jasper his first book of baseball history. From what I hear, he was excited to receive it. That puts a smile on my face. I hope he gets out of the book what I have (Ken Burns’ Baseball– one of my favorites) and is one day able to return the favor for someone else. To me, baseball history is too enjoyable not to be shared.

Guest post: An opponent remembers Jackie Robinson’s first day in the minors

Editor’s note: With Jackie Robinson biopic “42” due in theaters Friday, it is my pleasure to present Nick Diunte’s latest: an interview with someone who faced Robinson in his minor league debut in 1946.
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Jackie Robinson’s impact on baseball was felt immediately the moment he stepped on the field for the Montreal Royals in their season opener against the Jersey City Giants on April 18, 1946. In addition to all of the social implications behind Robinson’s debut, his 4-for-5 performance that included a home run, two bunt singles, and two runs scored by causing Jersey City’s pitchers to balk, left an indelible mark on his opposition.

Larry Miggins’ view of Robinson’s eye opening performance remains vivid some sixty-seven years later. The 20-year-old Bronx, New York native manned third base for Jersey City that day and had no trouble recalling how the day’s events unfolded.

“I remember it well,” the 87-year-old Miggins said from his home in Houston, Texas. “It was a full house, 45,000 fans. The place was packed.”

As the team went over its pre-game scouting report, information on Robinson’s tendencies were limited to what the manager had seen during batting practice. The Giants and Royals were due to meet in spring training, but the game was cancelled when officials in Jacksonville, Fla., upheld a city ordinance that did not permit mixed racial competition.

“Most of the guys were known by somebody, but when it came to Robinson nobody ever had seen him play,” Miggins said. “Our manager Bruno Betzel said he saw during batting practice that Robinson was a strong pull hitter. He said to me, ‘Miggins, you play him deep at third base.’”

Following his coach’s orders, Miggins positioned himself as instructed. During Robinson’s first two at-bats, the ball didn’t come Miggins’ way, as he grounded out to shortstop his first time up, and then hit a 335-foot home run down the left field line.

Expecting another powerful shot by Robinson, Miggins held his ground behind the third base bag as Robinson approached for his third at-bat.

“Next time up, I’m playing back, deep behind third base,” said Miggins. “He bunted and dropped one down. I could throw a ball through a brick wall in those days, so I pick it up and fire to first base and it was a real close play, safe. He could run too you know. He beat it out.”

Robinson proceeded to hit a single to right-center field during his fourth at-bat, which set the stage for Miggins to have another close encounter with the Royals second baseman. He did not think that Robinson would test him a second time with a bunt.

“Like an idiot, I’m playing him back at third base again the fifth time up. He dropped another bunt down and beat it out,” said Miggins. It was a lesson learned for the young infielder. “I gave him two hits that day and he never bunted again on me because I played him even with the bag from then on.”

Miggins went on to play parts of two seasons in the majors with the St. Louis Cardinals in 1948 and 1952, but his involvement with Robinson’s debut is one that he wears with a sense of pride and humor.

“They got him into the Hall of Fame and there he was, Rookie of the Year, MVP, and a World Series Champ, all because of the great start I gave him in baseball!” said a laughing Miggins. “I gave him two hits opening day and he never stopped from there, he just kept going. I always look back and that 4-for-5 opening day gave him a thrust for his whole career.”

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Related: Recollections from one of Robinson’s 1947 spring training teammates

My latest at Hardball Times

Hi all,

A quick note this morning to say that I have a new piece up at the Hardball Times. As some of you may know, Baseball-Reference.com added salary information and an inflation calculator to player pages not long ago. Using this info, I recently ranked every Hall of Fame player for their top salary in 2012 dollars.

Hope you all enjoy. I should have a new update here later this week. I’m itching to write about Dave Kingman, who had an infamous run-in with one of my editors from the 49ers magazine I wrote for this fall.

Guest post: Researchers, players disagree on optimal baseball bat weights

Photographs of Babe Ruth often capture the slugger gripping a bat, if not two, that resembles a troll’s club in length and thickness. With such a mass of lumber, one is tempted to think, it’s no wonder the guy hit 714 home runs.

But according to physicists, heavy bats can be detrimental to a player’s swing. One study, based on the calculation of bat speed, estimates that the average professional baseball player should swing a 31.1-ounce bat and the average college baseball player a 29.4-ouncer, but players at both levels often drastically exceed those guidelines.

Heavy bats, in fact, are ingrained in baseball lore.

Early-20th century star Frank “Home Run” Baker used a 52-ounce bat, according to Baseball: The Biographical Encyclopedia, and the Louisville Slugger company once sold bats weighing more than 45 ounces to many players, including eventual Hall of Famers Baker and Edd Roush.

But the end of the Deadball Era in the 1920s led to an emphasis on power over contact and an influx of lighter bats, according to P.J. Shelley of the Louisville Slugger Museum & Factory.

Then came Hall of Famer Ted Williams, a student of the game and one of history’s greatest hitters. Shelley says Williams, who mostly ordered bats between 32 and 34 ounces during a career that lasted from 1939 to 1960, was “one of the first to recognize that bat speed is more important than the weight of the bat.”

From Williams until about 25 years ago, bat weights dropped further, and today’s average Major Leaguer swings about 31.5 or 32 ounces, according to Shelley.

Though most players now use lighter bats than their predecessors, some still believe the more mass the better. According to Shelley, the Los Angeles Angels’ Josh Hamilton and Los Angeles Dodgers’ Hanley Ramirez swing 34.5- or 35-ounce bats, among the heaviest in the Major Leagues. And one Chicago Cubs player recently made headlines for his weighty bat choice.

In June 2012, Chicago Cubs left-fielder Alfonso Soriano was persuaded by manager Dale Sveum to pick up a 32-ounce bat, after years of using a 33.5-ounce behemoth, according to the Chicago Sun-Times.

“He’s typically used one of the heaviest bats in baseball most of his career,” Sun-Times reporter Gordon Wittenmyer said. “And you could make a case that’s part of his high-strikeout total, and it’s definitely part of his home run totals.”

Research supports Sveum’s suggestion that Soriano swing a lighter stick: In 1995, Terry Bahill and Miguel Morna Freitas of the University of Arizona developed a model that used bat speed to calculate ideal bat weight for any given baseball player. They also developed a simpler version using height, weight and age to estimate the optimal weight. According to the latter model, Soriano, at his listed height of 6 feet 1 inch, should use a 31.3-ounce bat, which, according to Bahill, would increase his contact rate.

“The 31- and the 33-ounce bat wouldn’t make a lot of difference in the distance the ball would go,” Bahill said. “But we think he could swing it more accurately if it were smaller.”

According to the Arizona duo’s study, the average college baseball player is best off with a 29.4-ounce bat, but Northwestern University baseball coach Paul Stevens said options are limited and most players use either 30- or 31-ounce bats.

NU shortstop Trevor Stevens is listed at 5 feet 9 inches, suggesting he should, according to Bahill’s model, swing a 29-ounce bat. But the switch-hitter uses a 31-ounce bat when he bats left-handed and a 30-ounce bat when he bats right-handed. He said those weights reflect what manufacturers produce and therefore what college players can access.

“There are bats that are weighted differently within the barrel and the handle,” Stevens said. “They feel lighter in your hands, but the ball doesn’t jump off of them as much.”

Stevens was referring to “moment of inertia” (or “swing weight” in baseball parlance), a parameter that measures the distribution of mass along the bat. Dr. Daniel A. Russell of Pennsylvania State University said a number of studies have proven moment of inertia more important than bat weight in bat choice.

“It’s not just how heavy the bat is, it’s how that weight is distributed,” Russell said. “You can take two bats that both weight 30 ounces and you’ll get very different behaviors depending on how the weight is distributed.”

Despite the available research, Wittenmyer said he has never heard anyone around the Major Leagues reference any studies on bat choice, suggesting the choices players make when choosing their equipment is more instinct than science.

Unscientific thinking may be advisable given the imprecision of the researchers’ conclusions. Bahill said his simplified model can only predict ideal bat weight within about two ounces and in order to get precise results, a player must come into his lab for measurements.

Hence what Shelley calls the true determinant of bat choice among baseball players of all ages.

“It’s a matter of player preference,” he said. “And what feels comfortable to them.”

The Bat Chooser: In 1995, Terry Bahill and Morna Freitas developed a method for choosing the right baseball bat, appropriately dubbed “The Bat Chooser.” This model calculated maximum bat speed using the force generated by a players swing and measured subjects across all levels of play. Because the original Bat Chooser required players to visit a laboratory for precise measurement, the researchers simplified their model to estimate ideal bat weight using height, weight and age. Later research brought into question the validity of these calculations.

Mean ideal bat weight of those studied (oz)

Number of subjects studied

Professional, major league

31.1

27

University baseball

29.4

9

University softball

29.7

19

Junior league, age 13-15

21.7

6

Little League, age 11-12

21.3

34

Little League, age 9-10

21.5

29

Little League, age 7-8

19

27

Slow pitch softball

25.7

12

 

Recommended Bat Weight (oz)

Professional, major league

Height/3 + 7

University baseball

Height/3 +6

Fast pitch softball

Height/7 + 20

Junior league, age 13-15

Height/3 + 1

Little League, age 11-12

Weight/18 + 16

Little League, age 9-10

Height/3 + 4

Little League, age 7-8

Age*2 + 4

Slow pitch softball

Weight/115 + 24

Age (years); height (inches); weight (pounds)

Announcing a new policy at BPP: Paid guest posts

There’s something I’ve been mulling for some time now that I think needs to be said. I’ll try to keep this brief.

I’ve reached the point in my writing career where I only want to do paid work. My ultimate goal is to make a living as a writer, preferably a sportswriter. I worry that the longer I do free work, the more I sell myself short and belabor this goal. It’s part of the reason I haven’t written a ton here over the past several months.

I deserve to be compensated for what I do. All writers should. I understand that the Internet is a still-evolving medium as well as a meritocracy and that web publishers are still figuring out ways to make paid content work. That said, I believe we can and should help each other.

Effective immediately, all guest posts at this website will be paid. I’m coming out of pocket, so I can afford to do this a maximum of once a month and pay $25 per piece. (I can’t yet pay for participation in group projects, though I’m happy to offer trade: You write for my project, I’ll write for yours.) As advertising dollars increase, I’ll try to up the volume of paid content and the amount I pay per piece.

I believe paying for content is the right thing to do from an ethical, altruistic and karmic standpoint. I simply no longer feel right accepting free work while asking payment for what I do.

On a related note, I solicited donations for charity a year ago promising a free set of trading cards to anyone who donated at least $25 to said charity. I finally have money to print these cards. I have a list of donors who I’ll soon be reaching out to. If you remembered donating $25 and would like a set of cards, please email me at thewomack@gmail.com.

An open letter to Bill Dwyre

Dear Bill Dwyre,

My name is Graham Womack. You probably don’t remember me, but I attended a sports journalism workshop you helped put on in 2003 as sports editor of the Los Angeles Times. I was one of 30 college students selected from around the country to spend a few days at Hollywood Park horse racing track leading up to the Jim Murray Classic. It’s hard to believe as I look back but that workshop was my first exposure to Murray’s writing; a decade on, the greatest sports columnist ever (and it’s not even close) remains a significant influence for me. I also got to hang out with a bunch of other talented, aspiring journalists and rub elbows with a few working writers. Best of all, I think everything was free.

So it was with disappointment that I read your recent column, Angels’ Jerry Dipoto speaks to the SABR rattlers. I’m not the first person to speak out regarding your rant against sabermetrics. Former LA Times staffer Matt Welch posted a rebuttal on Friday evening that’s worth a read if you haven’t checked it out already. I was alerted to your column after another writer tweeted on Saturday that your piece might be the worst baseball article of 2013. I wouldn’t go that far. You’re certainly not the first journalist I’ve come across with little use for advanced baseball statistics. Heck, I feel like I read this type of column every few months and generally I don’t respond. I’m making an exception this time, in part because the group you bashed, the Society for American Baseball Research, is about so much more than sabermetrics.

I’m in my third year as a SABR member. I don’t speak for SABR or have its demographics onhand, but in my experience, we’re primarily baseball history enthusiasts. Honestly, we’re people who know entirely too much about baseball history: that the 1926 World Series ended because Babe Ruth was thrown out stealing; that Joe DiMaggio barely missed having more homers than strikeouts in his career; that Smoky Joe Wood, Denny McLain and Dwight Gooden all had more wins before their 25th birthdays than after. I’ve been reading about baseball history since I was eight. For much of my life, the knowledge I’ve accumulated has been of little use to those around me, a curiosity mostly. At SABR meetings, I’m around peers, many of whom know more than I do. I feel at home. By the way, SABR predates the term “sabermetrics” by about a decade. There’s no official connection between the two terms. Most SABR members aren’t sabermetricians, I’d venture.

Is some of SABR’s membership zealously into advanced stats? Sure. The event that you got your column from attending, the annual SABR Analytics Conference in Phoenix attracts this cross section. The registration alone for this conference was $495 with a member discount. I contemplated going because a bunch of prominent baseball writers were scheduled to attend and I’d like to be acknowledged for knowing basic sabermetrics. I’d also like to learn more. I decided against going, as I didn’t have the money and I’m no hardcore statistician. Anyhow, I have other things on my baseball bucket list that I might splurge on first. I want to attend the main SABR conference in Philadelphia in July. I’d like to do a research trip to Chicago and catch a game at Wrigley Field while I’m there. I’d also like to make another visit to the Hall of Fame, possibly when 19th century great Deacon White gets inducted this summer. I know I’m not the only member who thinks this way.

So we’re clear, I embrace sabermetrics. I didn’t a few years ago– like you, I once joked about the meaning of VORP– but after I began writing often about baseball, I found that basic advanced stats improved my understanding. The story side of baseball history was and is my primary love. But I like being able to rely on something besides quotes and opinions to tell stories. I’ve read of Casey Stengel bemoaning one of his outfielders driving in a run but letting three more in with shoddy fielding. I like that there’s a way to quantify this with metrics such as Wins Above Replacement that assess a player’s total value, taking all facets of his play into account. I like OPS+ and wRC+ that compare a hitter’s production to league average, normalizing for ballpark and era. For me, so much about baseball research is establishing context. While I don’t think sabermetrics alone can do this, they’re a valuable part of the equation.

That being said, I think the majority of SABR members hold true to traditional stats like batting average, runs batted in and pitcher wins. Jack Morris’s Hall of Fame case is a source of continual derision among many sabermetricians, as Black Jack has underwhelming ratings for various advanced stats; I read somewhere that more than half of SABR members support Morris being enshrined. At a SABR meeting in January, I took in a presentation from a fellow member who talked about flying to libraries around the country to look through old newspaper records to doublecheck long-ago RBI totals. I personally think RBIs are a misleading indicator of player value, since they’re dependent on a number of factors outside a hitter’s control. I rose my hand to ask this fellow why he wasn’t putting all this (commendable) effort into researching another stat. He tersely replied something to the effect of, “Well, you know, runs decide games.” I don’t know if people like this fellow would ever attend SABR Analytics. I suspect not.

I’m sorry you got the wrong idea about SABR, near as I can gather from reading your column. I invite you to give my organization another shot in the future. Perhaps the Allan Roth Chapter in Los Angeles could have you speak at a future meeting. Beat writers, broadcasters and other media members are common fixtures at meetings. I imagine you have loads of great baseball stories that a lot of us would love to hear.

Regardless, I close respectfully.

Graham Womack

Guest post: Book review: Banzai Babe Ruth

Editor’s note: Please welcome Japanese baseball expert Paul Gillespie to the site. Today, Paul reviews the book that recently won the prestigious Seymour Medal from the Society for American Baseball Research.

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As a baseball historian, I looked forward to reading Robert Fitts’ 2012 book, Banzai Babe Ruth.

I was not disappointed.

Fitts carefully reconstructed the socio-political climate in Japan during the 1934 tour by American Major Leaguers to the Land of the Rising Sun. I discussed Fitts’ description of Japan and the Japanese (during that era) with my many friends who, with their families, lived there at that time. Some had actually attended some of the games during the tour. They believe Fitts got it right.

Fitts ties together the beginnings of modern pro baseball in Japan with the Americans’ tour in 1934. It is an accurate tie-in.

Remember, baseball had been introduced into Japan during the 1870s, and had evolved into the most popular team sport in the country. Virtually every high school and college played baseball, and there were already calls for a professional league. Also, by this time, the “shamateurism” of company teams was already evident.

Babe Ruth was the uncontested star of the tour. His baseball exploits, combined with his larger-than-life personality, made him an instant celebrity in Japan. Kids there, like kids everywhere, idolized “The Babe”!

Even with the strong aura of nationalistic fervor in Japan (please recall, Japan was already a strong military and commercial presence in Formosa, Korea and China–particularly Manchuria–during this time), Babe Ruth and his fellow Americans were enthusiastically cheered everywhere in Japan. This, even though the Japanese people were well aware of the United States’ oft-stated displeasure with Japan’s military “adventurism” in the aforementioned areas of Asia.

Fitts covers the games well. Plus, he describes the travel in detail. He also expertly explains the socio-political climate in Japan at the time.

Interestingly, he provides some tangential background on the great pitcher Victor Starffin, including a controversial version of the murder/manslaughter charges brought against his father (known as Constantin). The details of this incident are so covered up in cover-ups, it is unlikely that the real truth will ever be discovered. Yet, Fitts gives a very credible version of the events, so far as the details are known.

While I am a big fan of Fitts’ persistence in research, and an admirer of his manifestation of baseball history in Japan, I do wish he had, among his many fine photographs in the book, published a picture of Violet Linda Whitehill (wife of the Washington Senators’ Earl Whitehill). She was one of the great beauties of the Western World, and her picture would have been a standout in the photograph section.

Also, I read with much interest the author’s take on catcher Moe Berg’s presence on the trip. While it has long been assumed that Berg was directed to spy for the United States while in Japan, Fitts apparently believes, as did my father, that while proximity created some opportunities to spy, it was not directed. Whatever the truth, Berg was one of the most fascinating people to ever play Major League baseball.

I heartily recommend Robert Fitts’ “Banzai Babe Ruth”. It is a great read for a baseball fan. It is also an unusually well-researched book on the history of the prelude to the U.S. entry into WWII.

I consider the book to be especially important to the history of baseball in both countries.

Guest post: Stan the Man

Stan Musial represented everything that I believed baseball was when I was a kid. He represented everything that is sorely missing from the game today. He played the game and loved the game for the sake and the beauty of the game. Above and beyond his tremendous accomplishments on the field, Musial was a rarity in life, a class act.

Musial died on January 19 at 92. I hadn’t given him much thought over the years I must admit but his passing has somehow struck me more than anyone not a friend or a relative. I saw him on television in his final major league at bat (the weekly New York Yankee Saturday Game of the Week was interrupted for this) and at the time I had little idea of who he was and what he had accomplished.

The numbers of course speak for themselves. Loudly. 3,630 hit (in an odd quirk he had the exact same number of hits at home and on the road). A career batting average of .331. 1,951 RBI. Three National League MVP awards. He was an All Star 24 times. He was a World champion three times. At the time of his retirement in 1963, Musial held or shared 17 major league records, 29 National League records and nine All star game records.

Off the field he was a successful entrepreneur in the restaurant business. He played his entire 23 year career with the St. Louis cardinals. He has two statues at Busch Stadium in St. Louis. He was elected into the Baseball Hall of Fame in 1969 on the first ballot.

In 2011, Musial was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom, the highest award which can be given to an American civilian.

Born in Donora, Pennsylvania, one of five children, Musial played semi pro baseball at 15 and quickly became a star despite playing against adults. His father had initially resisted the dream of playing baseball professionally but Stan and his mother, after much debate with his father, eventually changed his father’s mind about making the game of baseball into a viable livelihood.

He was originally signed as a pitcher. His batting skills soon outshone any notion the St. Louis organization might have had about Musial being a big league pitcher. His second season in the minor leagues, Musial won nine games but his .352. As with Babe Ruth before him, his batting skills were too great to ignore.

Musial reportedly almost gave up the game in 1940 as he was newly married, had one child and was trying to make ends meet on $16 a week. A shoulder injury in 1939 didn’t help the situation but his then manager and later lifelong friend Dickie Kerr convinced Musial to keep at it, seeing the potential that was lying just below the surface.

In the fall of 1941, Musial was promoted to the Cardinals. The legacy was about to begin.

In the 12 games Musial played in St. Louis in 1941, Musial hit .462 almost helping the Cardinals win the National League pennant that season. The following season he led St. Louis to the World Series, along the way winning the NL rookie of the year award.

In 1954 he became the first player (Nate Colbert replicated the feat in 1972) to hit five home runs in a double header. That day, he also became the only player to ever total 21 bases in a double header.

The highlights go on and on and on.

Stanley Frank “Stan” Musial had the ability and personality fitting one of the all-time greats.

Ty Cobb noted in a 1952 Life magazine article:

No man has ever been a perfect ballplayer. Stan Musial, however, is the closest to being perfect in the game today…. He plays as hard when his club is away out in front of a game as he does when they’re just a run or two behind.

A season covering the 49ers

I’ve been preoccupied the last several months. What was once a near-daily stream of posts here has dwindled to a handful per month. I’m not complaining, at least not today. In July, I got a full-time day job. In August, something bigger happened: I got the professional break as a sportswriter that I’ve been wanting for a couple of years. I haven’t mentioned it much here before today, but I’ve spent this football season freelancing for 49ers Insider, a digital magazine from the San Francisco Chronicle. With the Niners due to face the Baltimore Ravens in the Super Bowl on February 3, I’m struck by how lucky I’ve been.

It’s funny how life works. In college and before, I used to think only the most high-profile writing opportunities were for me. I wanted Sports Illustrated, the Los Angeles Times, maybe a handful of other places. I generally dismissed other publications as beneath me and loathed the idea of paying my dues as a writer. Life since graduation has been a series of continual lessons in humility. I’ve come to care less about where paid opportunities come from, with getting my rent covered and being self supporting mattering more to me. In my time as a writer, I’ve been paid to cobble together words on check processing software, stuffed animals and, my favorite, rubber bands. I’ve literally received full-time pay, plus benefits to write about rubber bands and other industrial supplies. God bless America.

My passion as a writer, which may be evident to anyone who’s regularly read this site, is baseball history, particularly anything quirky. If money were no object, it’s the main thing I’d write about. It’s how my mind works. It’s what I know. Unsurprisingly, I’ve yet to find a market for envisioning how Bob Caruthers would do in the modern MLB or assessing Smoky Joe Wood’s Hall of Fame case, but I remain optimistic. In the meanwhile, what I do here is mostly a fun hobby that I hope will lead somewhere. All this being said, the opportunity to cover the 49ers was unexpected and welcomed.

My association with the San Francisco Chronicle started last spring when one of my mentors who works there put in a good word for me. This led to a freelance piece in July on 1930s San Francisco baseball player Tony Gomez. After that ran, I kept up with the sports editor in hopes of generating more freelance. The baseball ideas I pitched didn’t go anywhere, though my editor mentioned the Niners magazine and suggested I focus on that. I was happy to do so. (If the Chronicle wanted me to cover backgammon, I’d do it, even if I’m not really sure what backgammon is.) I started out in September contributing weekly previews of 49er games, breaking down positional matchups. From there, my role expanded.

In October, I made my first trip to Niners’ team headquarters in Santa Clara for a feature on defensive back Tarell Brown where I met head coach Jim Harbaugh. I also got my first glimpse of how tightly on message most of the team is with media. It’s reminiscent of what Bill James wrote in his 2001 historical abstract about the Los Angeles Dodgers’ media arrangements in the 1980s. James noted:

The Dodgers in those days had a fine-tuned public relations operation. Bringing almost all of their players up through the system, they trained them early how to deal with reporters. I remember a reporter who covered the Dodgers telling me that on the one hand it was wonderful, because the players were always available and almost never rude, and everybody in the front office would return your phone calls promptly, but on the other hand it was frustrating because they would never say anything. They were all trained in spin control– accentuating the positive, don’t try to explain what’s gone wrong, you’ll just make it worse, etc.

There’s been a lot of talk with the recent Hall of Fame vote about baseball writers completely flubbing reporting about steroids in the 1990s. I can sympathize with the writers. If any 49er was using PEDs this season, I’d have had no idea. Player access is tightly controlled. Reporters see what the team wants them to see when the team allows them to see it. We get 45 minutes or an hour a few days a week of locker room access, with the majority of players making themselves scarce at this time. There are also press conferences with Harbaugh and a handful of star players rotating in. Team PR reps are always nearby, often dictating how long things will go. There’s a tacit understanding, at least I felt one, that the team controls credentialing for reporters and can make things difficult at any time. The organization has the upper hand, which is probably reasonable for protecting its business interests. It’s just occasionally frustrating from a journalistic standpoint.

Don’t get me wrong, though– this experience was beyond awesome. I got to interview players like Alex Smith (who’s a consummate professional) and Frank Gore (who’s a better running back than interviewee) and meet a bunch of veteran writers that I respect, including Scott Ostler and Art Spander. After Harbaugh benched Smith for Colin Kaepernick, I did a phone interview with NFL legend Y.A. Tittle who went through a quarterback controversy with the 49ers a half century before. Best of all, I got paid for all of this. I still can’t believe the last part is true, or that I get checks from the San Francisco Chronicle, but I hope paid opportunities for writers continue to exist in abundance. We do better quality work the more it’s subsidized.

I also had credentials to cover four games, including the Niners-Patriots’ 41-34 slugfest on December 16. I snapped the picture on the left during the fourth quarter as I waited for post-game locker room access. I had to pay my own way as a freelancer to get out to New England and I didn’t leave Gillette Stadium until 3:30 that night, but I’d do it again. I’m just bummed I can’t afford to trek to New Orleans for the Super Bowl. I’m hopeful there will be other opportunities for me like this.

Now, with the season winding down, I’m just trying to enjoy this experience as long as I can. I was stoked the Niners made the Super Bowl in part because it means more issues of the magazine, more chances to write. I’m heading down to team headquarters in Santa Clara in a bit and am hopeful I’ll be down at least one or two more times before the season ends. There’s been a lot more media attention as of late. I was even on NFL Network, live the last time I went (look for me at the 0:45 mark of this video.) There hasn’t been definitive word yet on the magazine’s future beyond this season, though I’m hopeful some semblance of it will endure. It’s a good magazine and I’m honored to have been a part of it.

There’s one other thing worth noting: For much of my time writing for this magazine, I also attempted to work my full-time day job, writing ad copy and assisting in other marketing activities for a Bay Area industrial supplier. I won’t go on about it except to say much of my work was mediocre, the job ended and I learned something valuable: I don’t want to waste my time doing things I’m not passionate about. The job made me better money than I’ve earned in a few years, but once again, I learned that money isn’t everything in life. I’m back to working a couple of days a week as a delivery driver and otherwise focusing on freelance opportunities. The next time an opportunity like this comes along, I want to be ready.

Guest post: Bill Deane’s 2013 Hall of Fame election forecast

Editor’s note: Please welcome Bill Deane, former senior research associate at the Hall of Fame and a longtime friend of the site. For more than 30 years, Bill has made a science of studying past voting results for Cooperstown by the Baseball Writers Association of America and predicting who will get in. He does this with great accuracy, including predicting Barry Larkin’s enshrinement last year. I’m honored to have Bill’s predictions exclusive at BPP, the night before BBWAA voting results are released. Let’s see how Bill does.

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The 2013 Hall of Fame ballot is the most star-studded and controversial since the very first one in 1936, with newcomers including arguably the best position player and the best pitcher of all time, along with four others with obvious Cooperstown credentials. Yet, according to my crystal baseball, none of these notables – nor anyone else – will be elected to the Hall this January, resulting in the first BBWAA shutout since 1996.

This is my 32nd year predicting Hall of Fame elections. I think the acid test of prognostication performance lies in guessing the fate of men who finish within 10% either way of being elected (i.e., who receive between 65-85% of the vote). Among such candidates, I have gone 48-12 (.800) in correctly predicting who would or would not make it over the years.

A review of the voting process: Members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA) do the voting. Late each autumn, ballots are distributed to active and retired beat-writers who have been BBWAA members for ten years or more. The ballots, which are to be returned by the end of the year, list candidates in alphabetical order, instructing voters to choose up to ten players (the average writer selects about six). Eligible candidates include men who played in at least ten seasons in the majors, the last of which was not less than five nor more than 20 years prior to the election. Any candidate being named on at least 75% of the ballots is elected to the Hall; anyone receiving less than 5% of the vote is dropped from further consideration. The BBWAA honors an average of about two players per year. The 2013 results will be announced on January 9.

More than half of the 27 players who were listed on the 2012 ballot are not on the 2013 version: Barry Larkin, who was elected; and 13 others (Juan Gonzalez, Vinny Castilla, Tim Salmon, Bill Mueller, Brad Radke, Javy Lopez, Eric Young, Jeromy Burnitz, Brian Jordan, Terry Mulholland, Phil Nevin, Ruben Sierra, and Tony Womack) who were dropped for failing to reach the 5%-cutoff. These men collected just 537 votes in 2012, and the stellar 2013 rookie class figures to amass many more than that. This means that most if not all of the 13 returning candidates are likely to drop down in the voting.

The problems facing the ballot rookies are (1) those with the best credentials have been tarnished by accusations or rumors of the use of performance-enhancers, and (2) there are simply not enough votes to go around. Though each voter is permitted ten selections, the average voter uses considerably fewer than that. The number of votes per voter has been below seven every year since 1986, and sunk to a record low of 5.1 in 2012.

Many of the 2013 first-time eligibles are destined for just one try on the writers’ ballot, the consequence of being overshadowed and receiving less than 5% of the vote. Yet, many have solid résumés, and will get some votes. Among these are David Wells (239-157 record, including a perfect game), Kenny Lofton (622 stolen bases, .299 average), Steve Finley (2548 hits, 304 homers, 320 SB), Julio Franco (2528 hits, the last at age 49), Shawn Green (328 HR, including four in one game), Reggie Sanders (305 HR, 304 SB), Roberto Hernandez (326 saves), Jose Mesa (321 saves), Sandy Alomar, Jr. (six All-Star selections), Jeff Conine (214 HR, .285), Ryan Klesko (278 HR, .279), Aaron Sele (148-112), Rondell White (198 HR, .284), Jeff Cirillo (112 HR, .296), Woody Williams (132-116), Mike Stanton (1178 games pitched), and Royce Clayton. White and Stanton were named as HGH-users in the Mitchell Report.
Here’s the way I foresee the rest of the election shaping up, with predicted percentages in parentheses:

Craig Biggio (72) – An excellent but not dominant player who amassed 3060 hits, 1844 runs, 668 doubles, and 414 stolen bases.

Jack Morris (63) – The winningest pitcher of the 1980s, he went 254-186 in his career without ever posting an ERA below three or a Cy Young Award finish above third.

Mike Piazza (58) – The best offensive catcher of all time (419 homers, .308 average), he managed to survive steroids rumors and a poor defensive reputation.

Jeff Bagwell (56) – Batted .297 with 449 homers and 1529 RBI in just 15 seasons, winning the 1994 NL MVP Award.

Tim Raines (46) – Rock was an outstanding player whose credentials (including an 808-146 stolen base record) are only starting to be appreciated by voters.

Lee Smith (45) – Lost his all-time saves record (and his only persuasive Hall of Fame argument) in 2006 to Trevor Hoffman, who in turn lost it to Mariano Rivera in 2011.

Roger Clemens (44) – The most-accomplished pitcher of the past century, if not any century, Clemens won a record seven Cy Young Awards and seven ERA crowns while going 354-184 with 4672 strikeouts. His reputation has been skewered by well-documented accusations of steroids and HGH use, though he was acquitted of perjury on the subject.

Curt Schilling (41) – His won-lost record (216-146) is modest by Hall of Fame standards, but he had three second-place Cy Young Award finishes and 3116 strikeouts with a record 4.38 SO:BB ratio. Moreover, he starred for three different World Series teams, the 1993 Phillies, the 2001 D’backs (for whom he shared Series MVP honors), and the 2004 Red Sox (for whom he authored the gutsy “bloody sock” performance).

Barry Bonds (35) – The most accomplished non-pitcher with the possible exception of Babe Ruth, Bonds won a record seven MVP Awards and set all-time marks for career homers (762, including a record 73 in 2001) and walks (2558, a record 668 of them intentional). For good measure, he added 514 stolen bases and eight Gold Glove Awards. But, like Clemens, his accusations of using performance enhancers in the second half of his career, along with his surly relationship with the media, will keep him out of Cooperstown for the foreseeable future.

Edgar Martinez (31) – Though he didn’t become a big league regular until he was 27, the DH wound up with 2247 hits, 514 doubles, 309 homers, and a .312 average.

Alan Trammell (30) – A fine shortstop, overshadowed throughout his career by Cal Ripken and Robin Yount.

Fred McGriff (22) – Crime Dog had 493 home runs and 1550 RBI, winning homer titles in each league.

Larry Walker (20) – Hit 383 homers and batted .313, winning three batting titles and the 1997 NL MVP Award, though most of his damage was done a mile above sea level.

Sammy Sosa (20) – Slammed 609 home runs, including three 60-homer seasons and an MVP Award, in a career also tainted by performance-enhancer accusations.

Mark McGwire (17) – Had 583 home runs, a .588 slugging average, and the highest homer percentage of all time, but has become the voters’ poster boy for players accused of using PEs.

Don Mattingly (14) – After a half-dozen years as one of the game’s most productive hitters, Mattingly was reduced to mediocrity by back problems. Still, he wound up with credentials eerily similar to 2001 first-ballot inductee Kirby Puckett’s.

Dale Murphy (14) – Two straight MVPs highlight a checkered résumé. This is his final try on the BBWAA ballot.

Bernie Williams (12) – The only 2012 first-year candidate to remain on the ballot, he helped the Yankees to four world championships in the midst of his eight straight .300-seasons, including the 1998 AL batting crown.

Rafael Palmeiro (10) – He was a slam-dunk Hall of Famer until a positive steroids test (shortly after his finger-pointing denial of steroids-use under oath) effectively ended his career. Voters remember that performance more than his 3020 hits, 569 homers, or 1835 RBI.

Looking ahead toward upcoming elections, it appears the ballot will only get more crowded. In 2014 the leading newcomers will be Greg Maddux, Frank Thomas, Tom Glavine, Mike Mussina, and Jeff Kent. The following year, Randy Johnson, John Smoltz, and Pedro Martinez will bring their nine Cy Young Awards up for consideration, joining Gary Sheffield and Carlos Delgado. In 2016, Ken Griffey, Jr. and Trevor Hoffman will top the rookie list. And the 2017 ballot will include Manny Ramirez, Ivan Rodriguez, and Jorge Posada. Any ten-year player active in 2012 who does not return in ’13 (Chipper Jones and Omar Vizquel, for two) will become eligible in 2018.