The most-deserving players not in the Hall of Fame: Third basemen

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I don’t know if Adrian Beltre is smart or lucky. What I do know is there’s no way the Beltre in the photo above would’ve made the Hall of Fame playing out his career in Los Angeles, or his subsequent home, Seattle. At the end of 2009, after 12 seasons between both teams, Beltre owned a .270 lifetime batting average, due in part to the Dodgers and Mariners playing in two of the worst hitters’ parks in baseball.

But then Beltre signed with the Red Sox and then, following a brief stint in Boston, the Rangers. Playing in two of baseball’s best hitters’ parks, the rest is, as the saying goes, history. Beltre hit .307 over his final nine seasons, finished with 3,166 hits and 477 home runs, and he’ll more than likely be a first-ballot Hall of Famer.

Today, Beltre heads up his position for a survey I fielded recently, asking 425 respondents to rank 10 players at each position, from 1 for most-deserving of induction to 10 for least-deserving. Having previously presented results for pitcherscatchers, first basemen and second basemen, today focuses on third base.

Q5 – Rank the following third basemen, ranging from 1 for most-deserving of Hall of Fame induction to 10 for least-deserving

PlayerAverage ranking
Adrian Beltre3.07
Miguel Cabrera3.50
Alex Rodriguez3.67
Pete Rose4.55
Dick Allen5.05
Scott Rolen5.63
Graig Nettles7.13
Buddy Bell7.35
Ken Boyer7.39
Darrell Evans7.65

[From a survey of 425 respondents, fielded via Qualtrics]

As always, lots to unpack here. I’ll start by explaining the presence of a few players in the results. Alex Rodriguez technically played more games at shortstop and racked up more WAR at the position. But he was last an everyday shortstop in 2003 and spent more years as a third baseman. So it seemed more appropriate to me to put him at third base for this. I realized after voting started that it would’ve been interesting to have Rodriguez and Derek Jeter face off at shortstop. Oh well.

I maybe should’ve employed the same logic I used with Rodriguez with Dick Allen, who had a few superb years at third base early in his career before transitioning to first base. Still, space was tight on the ballot for first base so Allen wound up here. As for Pete Rose, who played a bunch of different positions, he had to go somewhere for this project and had some fine years in the mid-1970s at third base.

One interesting and probably unsurprising thing to note about Rose and Rodriguez is that they each drew far more first-place votes than Beltre or second-place finisher for this position, Miguel Cabrera. But Rose and Rodriguez each drew so many ninth and tenth-place votes that it dragged down their averages.

A more detailed breakdown of the voting is as follows:


12345678910
Allen2231446485795323186
Bell241117375382917157
Beltre46126124723087831
Boyer231018325576988447
Cabrera409311986362081058
Evans10716265772859962
Nettles45523437486716054
Rodriguez1727627281566114044
Rolen5164474986829253333
Rose1317134272356312113
Total425425425425425425425425425425

Via filters from the survey website Qualtrics, we can dig into the numbers a little more. A few fun things to note:

  • The 131 voters who rated Rose first gave Rodriguez an average ranking of 4.82.
  • The 172 voters who rated Rodriguez first gave Rose an average ranking of 5.20.
  • The 113 voters who rated Rose last gave Rodriguez an average ranking of 4.16.
  • The 44 voters who rated Rodriguez last gave Rose an average ranking of 2.77.

I’m struck by the relatively strong showing for Scott Rolen. Perhaps as Adrian Beltre and Miguel Cabrera are inducted in the years to come, Rolen can improve his numbers on the writers’ ballot. Rolen rose to 17.2 percent in his second year on the ballot and has eight more years to attempt an against-the-odds climb to 75 percent.

Other thoughts: There’s a pretty clear divide in the results after Rolen, though it wouldn’t be an awful day for Cooperstown if ever Graig Nettles, Buddy Bell, Ken Boyer, or Darrell Evans is enshrined. I wouldn’t be stunned to see Nettles or Boyer get inducted at some point, but Bell and Evans probably have long-term spots locked down in these sorts of projects.

It’d be nice to get more third basemen on the ballot in the future. Robin Ventura has a reasonably good case sabermetrically. So does Ron Cey. Bill Madlock doesn’t have the advanced stats to bolster his case, but he won four batting titles. Then there’s Clete Boyer, one of the best defensive third basemen in baseball history. At some point, Nolan Arenado might deserve a spot, too.

Anyhow, I’ll share results for shortstop tomorrow. Thanks again to everyone for reading so far.

Just getting caught up? Check out results for pitcherscatchers, first basemen, and second basemen. Stay tuned in the days to come for results of the other four positions.

The most-deserving players not in the Hall of Fame: Second basemen

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One of the greatest Hall of Fame injustices in recent years, in my book, occurred two years ago with the ballot for the Modern Baseball Era Committee.

While Detroit Tigers greats Alan Trammell and Jack Morris made the ballot and got voted in, their teammate Lou Whitaker wasn’t even up for consideration. Just as Sweet Lou drew only 2.9 percent of the vote his only year on the writers’ ballot in 2001, one of the greatest second basemen in baseball history was once again overlooked.

Times could be changing. With Trammell having made a plug for his former double play partner in his induction speech and Whitaker eligible for consideration again this fall, perhaps he’s due for his moment. But results that follow hint that there still might be some conversation needed around Whitaker’s case.

As a refresher for anyone new, I recently conducted a survey via the website Qualtrics, asking people to rank 10 players at each position, from 1 for most-deserving of induction to 10 for least-deserving. Having previously shared results for pitchers, catchers, and first basemen, it’s my pleasure to now share results for second base.

Q4 – Rank the following second basemen, ranging from 1 for most-deserving of Hall of Fame induction to 10 for least-deserving

PlayerAverage ranking
Lou Whitaker2.83
Jeff Kent4.05
Bobby Grich4.22
Robinson Cano4.49
Chase Utley4.70
Willie Randolph6.12
Dustin Pedroia6.48
Davey Lopes7.11
Ross Barnes7.18
Frank White7.81

[From a survey of 425 respondents, fielded via Qualtrics]

There’s a lot to unpack here. Once again, I’m struck by the parity up top after the first position. Jeff Kent has struggled to gain any traction on the writers ballot, rising to 18.1 percent, his best showing thus far, in his sixth and most-recent appearance. It’s striking to see him outpace sabermetric favorite (and one of my personal favorite candidates) Bobby Grich. It’s also interesting to see Grich ranked in front of Chase Utley, his closest comp among ballplayers in recent years.

As for Whitaker, top showing and an average ranking of 2.83 would seemingly be cause for celebration among his supporters. Still, the breakdown of individual voting shows a couple things for Whitaker worth highlighting.


12345678910
Barnes211617284629295063126
Cano61567069403225131247
Grich61806348424035212114
Kent6079456058643411104
Lopes4111817344988877146
Pedroia6133628456082755723
Randolph79354166668565438
Utley36507174534424262423
Whitaker1611005336229710234
White811172419321667101130
Total425425425425425425425425425425

Whitaker got the most first-place votes. But he also got the most second-place votes and wasn’t terribly far off on having the most third-place votes. Granted, some of this is reflective of the caliber of second basemen not enshrined. Still, my sense is that not enough consensus has developed to ensure Whitaker will be enshrined this fall. I’ll be struck if he fails to make the ballot again. But with Whitaker needing 12 of 16 committee votes for induction, I could see him falling in the 7-10 vote range.

Staying on Whitaker for a moment longer, filters via the survey website that I used for this project, Qualtrics, can help us go further into the minds of voters who didn’t rank Whitaker first. The filters show:

  • The 61 voters who ranked Grich first ranked Whitaker 2.66 on average, slightly better actually than Whitaker’s overall ranking of 2.83;
  • The 61 voters who ranked Robinson Cano first ranked Whitaker 4.15 on average;
  • The 60 voters who ranked Kent first ranked Whitaker 4.52 on average.

This suggests to me that voters who appreciate Grich are also likely to appreciate Whitaker, which makes sense since it takes sabermetrics to appreciate each man’s case. What’s interesting to me is that Grich is also eligible with the Modern Era Baseball Committee this fall. I suspect he’ll be left off the ballot, since like Whitaker, he was one-and-done on the writers’ ballot and unlike Whitaker, Grich doesn’t have a recently-inducted teammate advocating publicly for him. In fact, Grich has yet to make a veterans’ ballot. But I wouldn’t be stunned if Grich’s absence from the ballot hurts Whitaker with a voter or two. They’re just too similar of candidates.

Looking at the remainder of the results, it’ll be interesting to see if this is Cano’s high-water mark as a candidate. Same for Dustin Pedroia. Both men look like their days as useful players could be behind them. I’m pleased to see Willie Randolph, another underrated player, doing relatively well in the votes here. Ross Barnes did about as well as an 1870s legend could be expected. As for Davey Lopes and Frank White, I might look to swap them out as candidates if I field this again in the future.

That said, I’ll share the results of third base tomorrow.

Just getting caught up? Check out results for pitcherscatchers, and first basemen. Stay tuned in the days to come for results of the other five positions.

The most-deserving players not in the Hall of Fame: First basemen

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It’s my pleasure to present the third round of results, based on a survey of 425 respondents, for my nine-part series on the most-deserving players not in the Hall of Fame. Having covered voting results for pitchers and catchers in the first two posts, today will focus on first basemen.

That said, let’s get right into it.

Q3 – Rank the following first basemen, ranging from 1 for most-deserving of Hall of Fame induction to 10 for least-deserving

PlayerAverage ranking
Albert Pujols1.66
Fred McGriff4.68
Todd Helton5.02
Mark McGwire5.17
Keith Hernandez5.95
Will Clark6.04
Rafael Palmeiro6.28
Don Mattingly6.46
Gil Hodges6.65
Steve Garvey7.09

[From a survey of 425 respondents, fielded via Qualtrics]

Once more, no surprises at the very top of this. In fact, without giving too much away, I’ll note that Pujols got the most first-place votes of any candidate in this survey. Good. Had Pujols stayed in St. Louis following the 2011 season or at least signed with a team with a hitter-friendly ballpark, he might be nearing the all-time home run record now. We’ll never know how much Anaheim took away from his career numbers.

Looking at the other nine first basemen here, there’s again a fair bit of parity. Fred McGriff has some separation in the totals and looks like a probable Today’s Game Era Committee selection. Todd Helton and Mark McGwire might be heading down that track as well, though Helton could get a bump on the writers’ ballot if his former teammate Larry Walker is enshrined in the next few years. I’m less encouraged by the results for the rest of the bunch and wonder if, to some extent, they’re cancelling each other out.

Making this portion of the ballot wasn’t easy, with several very good, if not worthy first basemen waiting to be enshrined. As with pitcher, there were more candidates than could fit here. I moved Dick Allen to third base to free up space. I had to make tough decisions to omit John Olerud and Hal Chase from consideration and I forgot Mickey Vernon, who has his supporters. I contemplated omitting Rafael Palmeiro to save space, but that seemed ludicrous given his career numbers.

That said, here’s a more detailed breakdown on the voting:


12345678910
Clark5223853526281502933
Garvey5202726274766506691
Helton7556066715936401813
Hernandez5283353636660504324
Hodges11283130383942826856
Mattingly8233131554658756434
McGriff15796064545051251710
McGwire161007046191912297638
Palmeiro24068484429182243111
Pujols35130782812115
Total425425425425425425425425425425

A few fun things to note in the voting, courtesy of filters from the survey website Qualtrics which I used to conduct this poll:

  • The 351 voters who rated Pujols first gave Clemens an average rating of 2.15, which was marginally better than his overall rating of 2.44 for this survey. The 74 voters who rated Pujols second or worse gave Clemens an average rating of 3.77.
  • The 223 voters who rated McGwire or Rafael Palmeiro third or better gave Clemens an average rating of 1.14. The 202 voters who rated McGwire or Palmeiro worse than third gave Clemens an average rating of 3.86.
  • The 44 voters who selected Keith Hernandez, Steve Garvey, Gil Hodges, Don Mattingly, or McGriff first gave Pujols an average rating of 4.66. They also gave Clemens an average rating of 5.07. I’ll share their thoughts on Barry Bonds when I post results for left fielders.
  • 15 voters somehow rated Pujols last. I don’t know if they misread the survey and thought 10 was best. Whatever the case, these 15 voters were most likely to rate Will Clark or Garvey tops.

Anyhow, thanks to everyone for reading so far. I’ll be back tomorrow with the results for second base, which I think will make for the most interesting post thus far.

Just getting caught up? Check out results for pitchers and catchers. Stay tuned in the days to come for results of the other six positions.

The most-deserving players not in the Hall of Fame: Catchers

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A few weeks ago, with the help of the survey website Qualtrics, I asked people to address a common Baseball Hall of Fame argument.

Often, when people talk about candidates, they’ll say that they’re okay with one going in but not before another. Accordingly, I created a survey with 10 players at each position, asking them to rank them from 1 for most-deserving of induction to 10 for least-deserving.

Voting wrapped at midnight on Aug. 1, with 425 responses in. Having debuted results for pitchers yesterday morning, it’s my pleasure to now unveil results for catchers. I will add, before we get into parsing the rankings, that while Thurman Munson didn’t finish top overall, I chose his picture to highlight this post because of the tragic death at 32 of the former New York Yankees’ captain in an airplane accident 40 years ago today.

Q2 – Rank the following catchers, ranging from 1 for most-deserving of Hall of Fame induction to 10 for least-deserving

PlayerAverage ranking
Joe Mauer3.42
Ted Simmons4.15
Yadier Molina4.54
Buster Posey4.54
Thurman Munson4.64
Bill Freehan5.90
Jorge Posada6.11
Elston Howard6.40
Charlie Bennett7.28
Gene Tenace8.02

[From a survey of 425 respondents, fielded via Qualtrics]

Once again, I’m struck by the parity. After Joe Mauer, whose Hall of Fame case looks encouraging based on how he fared here, it’s a four-way battle between two of the best catchers of the 1970s, Ted Simmons and Thurman Munson, and two of the most-celebrated in the game today, Yadier Molina and Buster Posey. It’ll be interesting to see how long this debate persists, depending on how long it takes for Molina and Posey’s enshrinement. Simmons and Munson have long been debated in Cooperstown conversations.

More thorough results for how people ranked each catcher are wild. There’s really no clear consensus here.


12345678910
Bennett17620313436474978107
Freehan13463035595854505030
Howard10283330504952706439
Mauer80907667403027924
Molina76484254524239312615
Munson49377159584839361711
Posada9233054496168643334
Posey52646645445036302117
Simmons116734631202318236015
Tenace31011191928456374153
Total425425425425425425425425425425

Simmons’ results particularly strike me. Simba, the Posey of the ’70s in my book, got the most first-place votes. But he also got the fourth-most ninth place votes and just six fewer than Molina, Posey, Munson, and Mauer combined. Don’t ask me how these things work. The second half of Simmons’ career, when he went from a young standout backstop with the St. Louis Cardinals to an injury-riddled first baseman wasn’t great. But Molina, Posey, Munson, and Mauer all experienced declines after their 30th birthdays as well. And if I’m making an all-time Cardinals team, Simmons is my catcher over Molina any day of the week.

Moving on, I’m struck by the divide thereafter, with Bill Freehan, Jorge Posada, Elston Howard, Charlie Bennett, and Gene Tenace totaling 52 first place votes collectively. To me, it hints that none of the five have great chances for Cooperstown. This isn’t the worst injustice, though cases can be made for each of them. Freehan, in particular, might be one of the more underrated players in baseball history, a wonderful catcher of the 1960s and a linchpin of some superb Detroit Tigers teams. He’s been battling Alzheimer’s disease and in hospice care in recent months. Anything to celebrate the man is a plus in my book.

I’m a little bummed to see that once again, a couple of sabermetric favorite candidates fared poorly here. Yesterday, I was noting the dismal rankings for Rick Reuschel and Wes Ferrell. Today, it appears that word still hasn’t gotten out on Tenace, one of the best offensive catchers in baseball history by OPS+ or Bennett, one of the premier catchers of the 19th century before he lost his legs in a train accident.

That said, I thank everyone for reading so far and will post the results for first basemen on Monday.

The most-deserving players not in the Hall of Fame: Pitchers

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A few weeks ago, I kicked off a challenge here.

With the help of the survey website Qualtrics, I asked people to go position by position and rank the most-deserving players not in the Baseball Hall of Fame, ranging from 1 for most-deserving to 10 for least-deserving. I gave a list of 10 players at each position, based primarily on who I thought voters would expect to be in the poll.

That said, after 425 responses, voting has officially wrapped for this poll. I will be presenting the results here of the survey over the next week or so, going position by position. Today, it’s my pleasure to present how people voted on pitchers.

Q1 – Rank the following pitchers, ranging from 1 for most-deserving of Hall of Fame induction to 10 for least-deserving

PlayerAverage ranking
Roger Clemens2.44
Curt Schilling3.50
Kevin Brown5.29
David Cone5.52
CC Sabathia5.55
Tommy John5.56
Luis Tiant5.68
Jim Kaat5.92
Wes Ferrell7.60
Rick Reuschel7.94

[From a survey of 425 respondents, fielded via Qualtrics]

No real surprises at the top, I suppose. Opposition has cooled considerably in recent years toward enshrining Clemens, a brilliant pitcher long before rumors of performance enhancing drug use surfaced. He drew 59.5 percent of the vote in his most recent appearance on the writers’ ballot for Cooperstown. I suspect he will reach the necessary 75 percent sometime in his remaining three years of eligibility. The ballot just isn’t that strong over the next few years.

Looking at the names below, Curt Schilling is probably moving toward enshrinement. I’m struck by the parity between Kevin Brown and Jim Kaat. I’m a little bummed to see Wes Ferrell and Rick Reuschel anchoring the list, though it’s not stunning. I put Ferrell and Reuschel in the survey partly in tribute to my friend and fellow baseball researcher Adam Darowski, who has advocated heavily for their induction in recent years, though each has a nuanced case that could be overlooked in a quick survey. That said, if I field this again in the future, I’ll probably sub in Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer for Ferrell and Reuschel.

I should add that unlike most of the other positions in this survey, it was difficult to get the list of pitchers down to 10 names. I contemplated going 15 names just for pitchers, but thought it would look too out of sync with the rest of the survey. That said, here are some names I wanted to put in but didn’t have space for this time: Verlander, Johan Santana, Dave Stieb, Andy Pettitte, Orel Hershiser, and Dwight Gooden.

For anyone who cares, here’s a more detailed breakdown of the votes each pitcher received for each ranking.


12345678910
Brown14239155525348392921
Clemens3132910427521538
Cone223436387726246216
Ferrell25630284659798387
John10355452685148454814
Kaat21334441425350525237
Reuschel2112222137438188118
Sabathia8347256554253363237
Schilling412114238121310102226
Tiant12315164585147353541
Total425425425425425425425425425425

Qualtrics allows more sophisticated functionality. While I was limited through my free account to 10 questions and thus chose to forgo demographic questions to get the maximum amount of data, it is possible to use filters to show how certain voters voted. I’ll be diving into the filters more as I post about the results of other positions, but for now, here are a few fun ones:

  • The 41 voters who ranked Schilling first ranked Clemens eighth-worst among the field, ahead of only Wes Ferrell and Rick Reuschel, with an average ranking for Clemens of 7.00.
  • The 38 voters who gave Roger Clemens a ranking of 10 ranked Curt Schilling top, at 3.63 on average, followed by Tommy John at 4.18, and Luis Tiant at 4.24. I’m struck again by the level of parity in this survey after Clemens. Were there a clear consensus, someone would be closer to 1 here.
  • The 43 voters who ranked Tommy John, Jim Kaat, or Luis Tiant top overall gave Clemens an average ranking of 6.74, again ahead of only Ferrell and Reuschel.

I’ll get into comparisons for Clemens with some of the other controversial candidates in this survey (Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Shoeless Joe Jackson, and Pete Rose) as I get to those results posts. There are some interesting findings to highlight along these lines as we get there.

That said, look for the results for catchers tomorrow. I’ll add in hyperlinks for each subsequent post, allowing anyone who happens upon this post later to easily be able to navigate between the different positions.

Vote: The most-deserving players not in the Baseball Hall of Fame at each position

Back in 2010, I started a semi-annual exercise here. Four times over the course of four years, I had people vote on the 50 best players not in the Baseball Hall of Fame. It was a fun exercise, though I eventually stopped doing it for a few reasons. Mostly, the effort seemed like it was starting to run its course creatively and in terms of research value for the amount of work involved.

Lately, though, I’ve been getting the urge to run another poll. Accordingly, I’ve created a survey which draws on my past efforts, but asks a slightly different question.

Essentially, when people talk about Cooperstown and the players not enshrined, they’ll sometimes say that one player should be enshrined but not before another. The following survey goes position by position and asks people to rank 10 players from most-deserving to least-deserving of induction. As with previous polls I’ve done, banned players Shoeless Joe Jackson and Pete Rose are here; so are some active and recently-retired folks.

For anyone interested, a link to the poll is here, via the survey website Qualtrics.

I’ll keep the survey open through the end of the month and look to publish results in early August. Please feel free to contact me with any questions or feedback via thewomack@gmail.com. Have fun voting!

A glut of articles

It’s Tuesday, and I have two new articles out today. I also realized I’ve neglected to post a few other links here.

Let’s go down the list:

  • First off, today’s the 37th anniversary of Thurman Munson’s death in a plane crash. For Sporting News, I took another look at his Hall of Fame case;
  • For The National Pastime Museum, I wrote about Johnny Frederick, a crack hitter from the early 1930s who couldn’t last in the majors. I’m doing a live chat about this article tomorrow at noon PST. I’d love if anyone free could come out. It should be fun;
  • Last week at Sporting News, I evaluated a series of recent Hall of Fame rule changes and what they could mean for players like Alan Trammell, Mark McGwire, and Buck O’Neil;
  •  Finally, over the past month, I’ve started contributing at another baseball history website, Dugout Legends. I’m doing shorter, quicker articles for them, the kind of stuff I used to do a lot here but have gotten away from. It’s nice to have an excuse to be doing these kinds of articles again. Anyhow, I’ve written four articles so far for them and am contributing weekly.

That said, happy reading!

The 25 worst Baseball Hall of Fame selections

Baseball Hall of Fame Induction Weekend is a few days away, with near-unanimous selection Ken Griffey Jr., as well as Mike Piazza, set to join Cooperstown. By stats, each ranks close to being an inner circle Hall of Famer.

Not every selection in Hall of Fame history has been stellar, though. ForSporting News, I have a new piece ranking the 25 worst Baseball Hall of Fame selections ever.

I went one step further than many people go with these lists. First, I included managers, umpires, and executives. I also suggested alternative selections who were eligible at the time.

I’ve resisted doing one of these lists for several years, as it’s a little more negative than I typically like to go.  As my friend Adam Darowski just tweeted:

Right there with you, Adam. That said, I admit I enjoyed writing this list more than I expected to.

Two new columns, Curt Flood and Andrew McCutchen

It’s been a couple of weeks since I posted here, which means a couple new Sporting News columns from me.

First, one that’s fairly innocuous. I wrote about Andrew McCutchen’s budding Hall of Fame case and if a trade might help it.

Second, I wrote about Curt Flood’s Hall of Fame case. Specifically, I think it’s a little overrated because of the historical misconceptions about Flood’s contributions to baseball’s labor movement, misconceptions that persist to this day.

Flood’s son has been pummeling me on Twitter since the story went live, accusing me of being paid to write a hit piece. I’d of course never take money from anywhere but a publication to write a journalistic story. But I’m curious to hear if anyone here agrees with the rest of what Flood’s son said.

Two interesting Hall of Fame cases: Ichiro Suzuki and Joey Votto

It’s Tuesday, which means my latest edition of “Cooperstown Chances” is out for Sporting News. I also realize I forgot to share last week’s column here, so I’m going to drop two links.

First, I wrote about Ichiro Suzuki, who isn’t the “real” hit king now but will be an easy Hall of Famer five years after he retires. I didn’t spend too much time focusing on this in my piece. The real thrust of what I wrote about: a few better players will be lucky to draw 1/10th the votes that Ichiro does.

Meanwhile, I wrote last week about Joey Votto, who ranks as one of the better first basemen in baseball history through his first nine seasons. However, it’s critical Votto continue to rebound from his slump this season if he wants to keep his Hall of Fame hopes alive.

As always, feedback’s welcome and appreciated. Thanks for reading.