Baseball: Past and Present

Baseball for real is finally back and the failures or success stories of spring training are a thing of the past for the fans anyway. I made it through the confusion of three opening days this season and managed to not miss the Marlins first regular season game.  I spent most of the week hunting through various schedules to find out when baseball was actually going to begin for real.

The “opening” in Japan seemed nothing short of silly and I almost missed the Wednesday Marlins game.  After much research I discovered late that afternoon that this game actually counted.  The following day (Thursday) seemed to be the actual opening day.  Is the average baseball fan such as myself supposed to be this confused?  Things used to be a lot simpler when opening day began April 1 or 2 and in Cincinnati.  But I won’t go into my well documented opinions on Bud Selig.  Suffice it to say that the Marlins opener featured the usual confusing nonsense from the commissioner during two innings which saw all three announcers fawn and ogle over his sound bite observations on the state of baseball.

The new Miami ballpark is quite impressive. Except for that gawdy and downright ugly thing past the left centre field wall.  Apparently it lights up and dolphins dance and God knows what else when a Marlins player hits a home run.  I was grateful that none did that night.  This was also only a one game series and then Miami traveled to Cincinnati. Doesn’t make any sense to me either. This team is trying to build up fan interest.  Increased fan interest has to be built and sustained over a period of time. One game and hit the road doesn’t seem to be the way to do it. We shall see if the baseball fans of Miami come out to see this greatly improved team in a beautiful new ballpark.

Opening day in Pittsburgh simply wasn’t fair.  I realize that Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee have to face somebody in their first start but a team which is going nowhere again this season shouldn’t have to begin the season with the very real possibility of beginning 0-2. Halladay was his usual unhittable self on Thursday and as many teams have found out over the career of Halladay, no fun day in the batter’s box.  Pittsburgh was lucky to get the two hits they did. Oddly enough, Halladay didn’t pitch a complete game. He only pitched eight innings of two hit shutout baseball.  Pittsburgh had to be satisfied with that for the day.  They won game two however.  That’s why they play the game on the field.

The St. Louis Cardinals don’t seem to be missing Albert Pujols all that much.  At least in the early going of the 2012 baseball season. That’s because 2011 playoff and World Series hero David Freese continues to carry the team.  Freese in previous seasons was held back only because of injuries. Certainly the Cardinals need Carlos Beltran to stay healthy and Lance Berkman to repeat his surprising season of last year and need Chris Carpenter to return and Adam Wainwright to come back. But thus far, they seem like a very solid and balanced team.

Washington Nationals ace Stephen Strasburg showed no ill effects from his rotator cuff surgery and the Chicago Cubs blew another game.

Jon Lester and Justin Verlander locked up for a great pitching duel which saw the debut of Prince Fielder and Boston manager Bobby Valentine.

Clayton Kershaw left the Los Angeles Dodger opener after only four innings, apparently with the flu and Tim Lincecum gave up three runs, including two long home runs in his first start.

Oh yeah, one more thing.  Toronto and Cleveland loved opening day so much that they went a record 16 innings to finish it.  Then they went 12 innings the next day.  The batboys might have to pitch game three or four at this rate.

The first couple of games are under our belt. Life makes sense again.

What to do about Pedro Alvarez? That’s the number one question asked by Pittsburgh Pirates fans during spring training. Alvarez is the highly touted second overall pick from the 2008 draft who signed a $6.4 million contract with a $6 million signing bonus. First called up to the Pirates major league roster in 2010, Alvarez performed well. In 95 games, Alvarez hit .256 with 18 home runs and 64 RBIs.

But in 2011, Alvarez hit .191 and was demoted to AAA Indianapolis mid-season before being called back in September. This spring has been, to put it kindly, a disaster for Alvarez. His batting average is about .150 and he strikes out with alarming regularity. Through Sunday’s games, Alvarez had struck out 24 times and walked once.

Nevertheless, management is poised to start Alvarez at third base with the long shot hope the he’ll get well against major league pitching. At the same time, however, the Pirates are desperate for power, having none to speak of any place in the lineup save for the occasional Garrett Jones dinger. And there seems little reason to send Alvarez back to Indianapolis since that route has been tried without success.

The risk of putting Alvarez on the field day after day is that if he doesn’t perform, the fans will rag him mercilessly. When that happens, and it’s 100 percent certain that it will if Alvarez doesn’t hit, then his psyche would become even more messed up than it already is.

For fans who have endured 19 consecutive losing seasons, Alvarez is symbolic of all that’s wrong with the Pirates.

The Alvarez case has two interesting back stories. First, before he even arrived in Pittsburgh, Alvarez got off on the wrong foot. On August 18, 2008 after finishing his Vanderbilt University career, Alvarez agreed to but did not immediately sign his $6 million Pirates’ contract. When the signing deadline expired, Alvarez was placed on the restricted list. A month later, Alvarez renegotiated a $6.4 million contract. In other words, Alvarez held the Pirates up for $400,000.

Second, after Alvarez flamed out last year manager Clint Hurdle and the front office urged him to play winter ball so that he could practice against high quality players. Alvarez refused. Instead, he chose to “train” in Newport Beach, California. Here’s how Alvarez explained his workout schedule: “Some days I’ll hit for 10 minutes, some days I’ll hit for an hour. I’ll typically be done around noon and then I have the rest of the day just to hang out.”

If you’ve been to Newport Beach, you know that “hanging out” there is a dream vacation that’s not likely to result in a higher batting average.

The 2012 season is crucial for the Pirates and Alvarez. Last year, after a promising start that saw the Pirates in the thick of the National League Central Division race through July, the team fell like a stone. Nevertheless, the Pirates raised ticket prices. The offseason acquisitions, A.J. Burnett, Eric Bedard, Rod Barajas, Casey McGehee, Nate McClouth are aging cast offs. In Burnett’s case, the Yankees were willing to absorb millions from his contract to have him not pitch in New York. Of the 30 teams, only the Pirates were willing to take Burnett despite the Yankees’ subsidy.

As for Alvarez, a .211 career hitter against left handers, he’ll spend most of April on the bench. The Pirates’ early schedule includes games against the Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants and the Arizona Diamondbacks. That means Clayton Kershaw, Cole Hamels, Madison Bumgarner as well as the league’s top right handers like Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Roy Halladay.

Baseball is full of surprises. And maybe the 2012 Pirates will once again be among the contenders that take the National League by storm. From this corner, however, a happy ending for the Pirates seems unlikely.

Guy Hecker had an incredible 1884 season. The 28-year old righty started an American Association-leading 73 games for the Louisville Eclipse (completing 72 of them and making 75 appearances overall). He also led the league with 52 wins (against just 20 losses for a .722 winning percentage), a 1.80 ERA, 171 ERA+, 0.868 WHIP, and 385 strikeouts.

At the plate, he made 328 appearances and hit .297/.323/.430 for a 149 OPS+. His WAR was 16.6 as a pitcher and 2.0 as a hitter. His combined total of 18.6 led the league by a full seven wins (over Tony Mullane).

Hecker’s name has come up quite a bit in my research, but it recently popped up again as I was calculating Wins Above Expectancy for managers. Wins Above Expectancy simply calculates how many wins a team should have won and assigns the difference to the manager. Obviously the manager is not the sole reason a team performs over or under expectation. Wins Above Expectancy is just a junk stat I’ve been playing with since we don’t have a good way to calculate WAR for managers.

Hecker’s name came up because he was a player/manager in the final year of his career. Hecker also pitched and played first base for the 1890 Pittsburgh Alleghenys in the National League. The team was awful—they went just 23–113, setting a new loss record that would stand until 1899.

I calculate Wins Above Expectancy in two ways. The first uses Pythagorean record, which is the record the team was expected to finish with, given their runs scored and runs allowed. The Alleghenys scored 597 runs and allowed 1235, giving them a pathetic Pythagorean record of 28-108. So, by their runs scored and runs allowed, they should have won five more games than they actually did.

The second approach I used was to add up the combined WAR of all players on the team and calculate what the expected win-loss record would be. It is by this measure that the Alleghenys are the worst team ever.

The team’s hitters were worth –119 runs at the plate and –99 in the field, a horrible combination that adds up to a total of –4.9 WAR.

And the hitters were amazing compared to the pitchers.

22 pitchers took the hill in Pittsburgh that year. 21 were below replacement level. Only 25-year old Phenomenal Smith was able to produce 0.6 WAR (in 44 innings). Hecker himself was 2.4 wins below replacement. A pitcher named Fred Osborne managed to finish 4.3 wins below replacement in just 58 innings. The total of the pitching staff was –37.5 WAR.

The combined –42.4 WAR is simply incredible. Based on that total, the Alleghenys were expected to win just 1.8 games. As in 2–136, if you round up.

Big league playing experience is not a prerequisite for being hired as a major league manager, as evidenced by the six current managers who never made it to the “show’ as players: Fredi Gonzalez (Braves), Terry Collins (Mets), Joe Maddon (Rays), Buck Showalter (Orioles), Jim Leyland (Tigers) and Manny Acta (Indians). Several other current managers had short, unspectacular careers, consistent with the long-standing notion that marginal players make the best managers.

Nonetheless, the group of managers heading up major league clubs at the start of the 2012 season can be assembled into a pretty fair starting lineup.

C: Mike Scioscia (Angels). Another old saw about managing is that catchers are well suited to the job. A look at the current set of major league skippers offers no reason dismiss this thought. Seven current managers played catcher, but only Scioscia was a stand-out as a player. Joe Girardi (Yankees) and Mike Matheny (Cardinals) both held down starting positions for several years, but neither came close to Scioscia’s 23.7 WAR, which he accumulated during 13 years with the LA Dodgers. Girardi, Matheny, Bruce
Bochy (Giants), Ned Yost (Royals), Bob Melvin (Athletics) and Eric Wedge (Mariners) each earned less than five WAR for their playing efforts.

1B: Don Mattingly (Dodgers). He was an MVP, a six-time All-Star and a nine-time Gold Glove winner, and although I am not among the people advocating Mattingly’s Hall of Fame candidacy (largely on his brief peak and less-than-elite OBP), there’s no denying that he was a first-rate ball player. As the only first baseman among the current crop of MLB managers, he’s a natural for this starting lineup.

2B: Davey Johnson (Nationals). Like Mattingly at first base, Johnson is the only current MLB skipper who played second base. With Boog Powell, Brooks Robinson and Mark Belanger, Johnson was part of the celebrated Baltimore infield of the late ’60s and early ’70s. A four-time All-Star, Johnson saved his best season for 1973 when he hit 43 home runs for the Atlanta Braves.

3B: Robin Ventura (White Sox). Hired this off-season as Chicago’s field general despite having no previous managerial experience, Ventura will be returning to the organization where his playing career began. In ten seasons with the Sox, Ventura won five Gold Gloves and was a consistent offensive force in a lineup that also included Frank Thomas and Tim Raines. Ventura’s best season was 1999, his first with the Mets, when he hit .301, had an OPS of .908 and won his sixth Gold Glove. Brad Mills (Astros) is the only other third-sacker among current MLB managers, and he was a replacement-level player who had a very brief career with the Montreal Expos.

SS: Ozzie Guillen (Marlins). Shortstop was the primary defensive position of five current MLB managers, but Guillen is the natural choice to be in the starting lineup, mostly on the strength of his defensive skills. Never an offensive force, Guillen was a .264 hitter with little power. Nonetheless, he held the starting job for the White Sox for more than a decade, with more than two-thirds of his career 15.9 WAR earned on defense. Bobby Valentine (Red Sox), Ron Washington (Rangers), Dale Sveum (Cubs) and Ron Gardenhire (Twins) all played shortstop, but they did so at or near the replacement level.

LF: Dusty Baker (Reds). Baker had an interesting career arc. His talents were visible early in his career, when he hit .304 and slugged .501 in his age-23 season with Atlanta in 1973. He did not top 130 in OPS+ again until 1977 (age 28), and then did so again in ’80, ’81 and ’82. His peak years were ’79 through ’85 (ages 30-36). He earned a solid 34.8 WAR for his career.

CF: Kirk Gibson (Diamondbacks). The signature moment in Gibson’s career was his World Series home run off Dennis Eckersley. He won the MVP in 1988, his first season with the LA Dodgers, and on the strength of that season and the previous several years in Detroit, Gibson was poised to make a run at a Hall of Fame career. But from 1989 forward, Gibson was barely more than a replacement level performer. Still, he
accumulated 37.1 WAR during his 17-year career. Although he played far more as a corner outfielder, Gibson played more than 300 games in center, making him best suited to hold that position in our managers-only starting nine.

RF: Clint Hurdle (Pirates). Hurdle had one of the most disappointing careers of any major leaguer, not because he was a poor player, but because of the astronomical expectations that came along with his arrival with the Kansas City Royals in 1978. If you strip away the expectations and take an objective view, what you can observe is a short career to be sure (less than 1600 plate appearances) but not an unproductive one. His career .341 OBP and .403 SLG made for a 105 OPS+, making Hurdle a slightly above average performer with the bat. If not Hurdle in this starting lineup, the other choices are Charlie Manuel (Phillies), Ron Roenicke (Brewers) and Jim Tracy (Rockies), all of whom had short, undistinguished careers as MLB outfielders.

SP: Bud Black (Padres). Few major league pitchers become major league managers. Among 2012 skippers, only Black and John Farrell (Blue Jays) were MLB pitchers. Black was not much more than a .500 pitcher at 121-and-116, but his ERA+ was above average at 104, and for much of his career he was a serviceable second or third starter. He earned 19.6 WAR over his 15-year career. John Farrell has a somewhat less impressive pitching resume. He made only 109 starts in an eight-year, injury-interrupted career. Although certainly not an ace with his 36-and-46 record, Farrell was not a push-over, either. For his career, he averaged more than six innings pitched per start.

DH: Although the managers making up this lineup are drawn from both leagues, their talents are best suited to playing under National League rules – no DH required. If forced to send a DH to the plate, this team would be hard-pressed to produce a batter with anything near league-average offensive production. Take your pick from among Girardi (72 OPS+), Washington (79), Valentine (85) and Roenicke (92). All were more likely to strike out than to strike fear in the opposing pitcher.

What he did: For being a baseball Hall of Famer, and one of his sport’s greatest living players, Al Kaline is a forgotten man sometimes. Sure, the longtime Detroit Tiger has 3,007 hits, a .297 lifetime batting average, and a revered spot in his franchise’s lore. But ask anyone the greatest outfielder of the 1950s or ’60s and talk may sooner center on Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, or Mickey Mantle, among so many others. Limit the conversation to right fielders, and some may still sooner give a nod to Roberto Clemente or Frank Robinson or, if we’re simply talking peak value, Roger Maris or Rocky Colavito.

It isn’t Kaline’s fault that he played in perhaps the greatest generation of outfielders in baseball history. He made the most of his opportunity and has a well-deserved Hall of Fame plaque. In a less star-studded era, though, Kaline’s offensive stats might drop but his legacy could be greater.

Era he might have thrived in: If the 1950s and ’60s were the summer blockbuster season of baseball history, the ’70s and ’80s were like August, a time for second-rate action thrillers, sleeper hits, and the occasional box office bomb. Might Al Kaline have been Keanu Reeves in “Chain Reaction” on the Pittsburgh Pirates of this era? Hardly.

Why: With his foot speed and mix of contact and power hitting, Kaline would have excelled on the artificial turf at Three Rivers Stadium in Pittsburgh and a number of other ballparks in these days. Kaline never had the all-out power that came to define baseball in the 1990s, but then, neither did George Brett, Robin Yount, or most other Hall of Famers from their less offensive era. It’s why Mike Schmidt used to lead the National League with less than 40 home runs, one reason why Tony Perez and Jim Rice made Cooperstown with under 400 career home runs and Dwight Evans, Dale Murphy, and Dave Parker could follow suit eventually.

No one would begrudge Kaline hitting .330 with 20 home runs and 100 RBI on a team like the 1979 Pirates. In fact, these numbers and his defense would probably make him one of the best players in the National League. His presence might also make Pittsburgh better longer. For all the joy and warmth the “We Are Family” Pirates evoked beating the Baltimore Orioles in the ’79 World Series, their 1980 club was among baseball’s most historically dysfunctional teams, beset with cocaine abuse. Players like Rod Scurry, Bernie Carbo, and mercurial then-superstar Parker would later figure prominently in the infamous Pittsburgh drug trials of the mid-’80s.

Perhaps a steady, non-assuming person with no hint of scandal during his career, someone like Kaline could have a calming effect on that clubhouse, even if a leader as graceful and respected as Willie Stargell seemingly lost its hold. Who knows, maybe Stargell needed help and someone to assume his mantle with his career winding down. I’ll concede, of course, that Kaline could easily get swept up in the times when players rode the white horse as much as a later generation dabbled in performance enhancers. But I’d like to give Kaline the benefit of the doubt.

Any player/Any era is a Thursday feature (generally) here that looks at how a player might have done in an era besides his own.

Others in this series: Al Simmons, Albert Pujols, Babe Ruth, Bad News Rockies, Barry Bonds, Billy Beane, Billy Martin, Bob Caruthers, Bob Feller, Bob Watson, Bobby Veach, Carl Mays, Cesar Cedeno, Charles Victory Faust, Chris von der Ahe, Denny McLain, Dom DiMaggio, Don Drysdale, Doug Glanville, Eddie Lopat, Elmer Flick, Eric Davis, Frank Howard, Fritz Maisel, Gary Carter, Gavvy Cravath, Gene Tenace, George W. Bush (as commissioner), George Case, George Weiss, Harmon Killebrew, Harry Walker, Home Run Baker, Honus Wagner, Hugh Casey, Ichiro Suzuki, Jack Clark, Jack Morris, Jackie Robinson, Jim Abbott, Jimmy Wynn, Joe DiMaggio, Joe Posnanski, Johnny Antonelli, Johnny Frederick, Josh Gibson, Josh Hamilton, Ken Griffey Jr., Lefty Grove, Lefty O’Doul, Major League (1989 film),Mark Fidrych, Matty Alou, Michael Jordan, Monte Irvin, Nate Colbert, Ollie Carnegie, Paul Derringer, Pedro Guerrero, Pedro Martinez, Pee Wee Reese, Pete Rose, Prince Fielder, Ralph Kiner, Rick Ankiel, Rickey Henderson, Roberto Clemente, Rogers Hornsby, Sam Crawford, Sam Thompson, Sandy Koufax,  Satchel Paige, Shoeless Joe Jackson, Spud Chandler, Stan Musial, Ted Williams, The Meusel Brothers, Tony Phillips, Ty Cobb, Vada Pinson, Wally Bunker, Wes Ferrell, Will Clark, Willie Mays

Years ago, I had a good job that required extensive traveling. During the 1970s taking an airplane from New York to, for example, Chicago was something to look forward to. The three major airlines that served Chicago—United, American and the old TWA, offered flights that left every hour. As your taxi pulled up to La Guardia, you looked at your watch, determined which flight you could make and bought your ticket at the gate.

Once on board, the stewardess (as they were then called) treated even coach passengers with a certain amount of dignity. While en route we ate, if not haute cuisine, at least something warm and free.

One of the best features of my job was that I made my own schedule.
During April I attended as many Opening Days as I could. I’d catch the Mets and the Yankees at home and then, with no trouble at all, go out of town to see a third. This, don’t forget, was pre-cell phone and in an era where job security, assuming you carried your own weight, still existed.

So it was that I found myself in Chicago on April 15, 1975 to see the White Sox play the Texas Rangers. During the 1970s the White Sox were nothing special. But that year, Bill Veeck had purchased the team—again and just before it was relocated in Seattle. Chicago was abuzz with enthusiasm that somehow the team could be restored a competitive level. The 1975 White Sox never lived up to the fans’ early hopes. The Pale Hose finished in fifth place, barely ahead of the California Angels but 22.5 games behind the Oakland Athletics.

In retrospect, no one should have been surprised. The Sox had pretty good pitching with Jim Kaat (20-14) Wilbur Wood (16-20) and an emerging Goose Gossage but not much offense. Deron Johnson’s 18 home runs lead the Sox.

Nevertheless, this was April and spirits were high. The Sox had opened poorly, but not calamitously, on the road. After losing two of three to Oakland and California, the Comiskey Park opener was set for Tuesday during the season’s second week.

Veeck walked through the stands, peg leg in place, to shake hands with as many people as he could. The old master talked the White Sox up with his typical enthusiasm. The problem was that only 20,000 showed up.

Those were the among the bravest individuals to ever set foot in a baseball park. I can never recall being colder for longer than that day at Comiskey. According to the weather bureau, the temperature hit 45 degrees but the wild chill, aided by freezing rain and snow flurries, made it seem like 20.

Sensible people would have left after the third inning. By then, you could say you “had gone” to Opening Day; no need to elaborate. But our group included White Sox die hards. And unfortunately, the game see sawed back and forth. The Sox prevailed in, wouldn’t you know it, extra innings, 6-5 in eleven frames played out over a frigid 3:51. I can’t remember a single thing about the game except the elation I felt when Tony Muser hit into a game ending double play to quash the mild threat the White Sox had mounted to tie it up.

By Wednesday, I was still thawing out.