Guest post: Researchers, players disagree on optimal baseball bat weights

Photographs of Babe Ruth often capture the slugger gripping a bat, if not two, that resembles a troll’s club in length and thickness. With such a mass of lumber, one is tempted to think, it’s no wonder the guy hit 714 home runs.

But according to physicists, heavy bats can be detrimental to a player’s swing. One study, based on the calculation of bat speed, estimates that the average professional baseball player should swing a 31.1-ounce bat and the average college baseball player a 29.4-ouncer, but players at both levels often drastically exceed those guidelines.

Heavy bats, in fact, are ingrained in baseball lore.

Early-20th century star Frank “Home Run” Baker used a 52-ounce bat, according to Baseball: The Biographical Encyclopedia, and the Louisville Slugger company once sold bats weighing more than 45 ounces to many players, including eventual Hall of Famers Baker and Edd Roush.

But the end of the Deadball Era in the 1920s led to an emphasis on power over contact and an influx of lighter bats, according to P.J. Shelley of the Louisville Slugger Museum & Factory.

Then came Hall of Famer Ted Williams, a student of the game and one of history’s greatest hitters. Shelley says Williams, who mostly ordered bats between 32 and 34 ounces during a career that lasted from 1939 to 1960, was “one of the first to recognize that bat speed is more important than the weight of the bat.”

From Williams until about 25 years ago, bat weights dropped further, and today’s average Major Leaguer swings about 31.5 or 32 ounces, according to Shelley.

Though most players now use lighter bats than their predecessors, some still believe the more mass the better. According to Shelley, the Los Angeles Angels’ Josh Hamilton and Los Angeles Dodgers’ Hanley Ramirez swing 34.5- or 35-ounce bats, among the heaviest in the Major Leagues. And one Chicago Cubs player recently made headlines for his weighty bat choice.

In June 2012, Chicago Cubs left-fielder Alfonso Soriano was persuaded by manager Dale Sveum to pick up a 32-ounce bat, after years of using a 33.5-ounce behemoth, according to the Chicago Sun-Times.

“He’s typically used one of the heaviest bats in baseball most of his career,” Sun-Times reporter Gordon Wittenmyer said. “And you could make a case that’s part of his high-strikeout total, and it’s definitely part of his home run totals.”

Research supports Sveum’s suggestion that Soriano swing a lighter stick: In 1995, Terry Bahill and Miguel Morna Freitas of the University of Arizona developed a model that used bat speed to calculate ideal bat weight for any given baseball player. They also developed a simpler version using height, weight and age to estimate the optimal weight. According to the latter model, Soriano, at his listed height of 6 feet 1 inch, should use a 31.3-ounce bat, which, according to Bahill, would increase his contact rate.

“The 31- and the 33-ounce bat wouldn’t make a lot of difference in the distance the ball would go,” Bahill said. “But we think he could swing it more accurately if it were smaller.”

According to the Arizona duo’s study, the average college baseball player is best off with a 29.4-ounce bat, but Northwestern University baseball coach Paul Stevens said options are limited and most players use either 30- or 31-ounce bats.

NU shortstop Trevor Stevens is listed at 5 feet 9 inches, suggesting he should, according to Bahill’s model, swing a 29-ounce bat. But the switch-hitter uses a 31-ounce bat when he bats left-handed and a 30-ounce bat when he bats right-handed. He said those weights reflect what manufacturers produce and therefore what college players can access.

“There are bats that are weighted differently within the barrel and the handle,” Stevens said. “They feel lighter in your hands, but the ball doesn’t jump off of them as much.”

Stevens was referring to “moment of inertia” (or “swing weight” in baseball parlance), a parameter that measures the distribution of mass along the bat. Dr. Daniel A. Russell of Pennsylvania State University said a number of studies have proven moment of inertia more important than bat weight in bat choice.

“It’s not just how heavy the bat is, it’s how that weight is distributed,” Russell said. “You can take two bats that both weight 30 ounces and you’ll get very different behaviors depending on how the weight is distributed.”

Despite the available research, Wittenmyer said he has never heard anyone around the Major Leagues reference any studies on bat choice, suggesting the choices players make when choosing their equipment is more instinct than science.

Unscientific thinking may be advisable given the imprecision of the researchers’ conclusions. Bahill said his simplified model can only predict ideal bat weight within about two ounces and in order to get precise results, a player must come into his lab for measurements.

Hence what Shelley calls the true determinant of bat choice among baseball players of all ages.

“It’s a matter of player preference,” he said. “And what feels comfortable to them.”

The Bat Chooser: In 1995, Terry Bahill and Morna Freitas developed a method for choosing the right baseball bat, appropriately dubbed “The Bat Chooser.” This model calculated maximum bat speed using the force generated by a players swing and measured subjects across all levels of play. Because the original Bat Chooser required players to visit a laboratory for precise measurement, the researchers simplified their model to estimate ideal bat weight using height, weight and age. Later research brought into question the validity of these calculations.

Mean ideal bat weight of those studied (oz)

Number of subjects studied

Professional, major league

31.1

27

University baseball

29.4

9

University softball

29.7

19

Junior league, age 13-15

21.7

6

Little League, age 11-12

21.3

34

Little League, age 9-10

21.5

29

Little League, age 7-8

19

27

Slow pitch softball

25.7

12

 

Recommended Bat Weight (oz)

Professional, major league

Height/3 + 7

University baseball

Height/3 +6

Fast pitch softball

Height/7 + 20

Junior league, age 13-15

Height/3 + 1

Little League, age 11-12

Weight/18 + 16

Little League, age 9-10

Height/3 + 4

Little League, age 7-8

Age*2 + 4

Slow pitch softball

Weight/115 + 24

Age (years); height (inches); weight (pounds)

Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? Vlad Guerrero

Claim to fame: From 1998 to 2007, playing for the Expos and Angels, Vladimir Guerrero posted a .327/.394/.586 slash line with a 149 OPS+ while averaging 151 games per season, making eight all-star games, winning seven silver slugger awards and receiving at least one MVP vote in all 10 seasons. Never during that stretch did Guerrero’s OPS fall below .930 or his OPS+ below 138. It was a decade of dominance, of a sustained status as one of Major League Baseball’s premier offensive players.

Since 2008, Guerrero’s production has declined steadily, an all-star berth in 2010 suggesting a renaissance before 2011 brought the worst full season of the rightfielder’s distinguished career. Coming off that replacement-level production (0.0 WAR on Baseball-Reference), Guerrero struggled to find work, eventually signing with the Blue Jays, theoretically foreshadowing a return to Canada to finish his career north of the border, where it began. He went 9-20 at Class-A Dunedin before a promotion to Triple-A Las Vegas, where Vlad continued to knock around minor league pitching, batting .303 over eight games before asking for, and being granted, his release two weeks ago. The former-MVP is now back on the job hunt, hoping to avoid retirement.

Current Hall of Fame eligibility: Released by the Blue Jays after failing to earn a Big League call-up, Guerrero’s career appears to be finished. If he does not again play in the majors, he will first be eligible for BBWAA Hall of Fame voting in 2016.

Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? Vlad Guerrero seems like a Hall of Famer. Maybe it’s the all-star appearances; he was selected to nine Mid-Summer Classics. Maybe it’s the MVP votes; he won the award in 2004 and finished in the top five in voting three other times. Maybe it’s the admiration with which his peers describe him; in an excellent 2000 ESPN Magazine feature, Jose Mesa is quoted as saying:

Vladimir and A-Rod are the two most complete players in this game. You are obligated to put Vladimir in the top two. Obligated. But A-Rod at least has help. Vladimir is all by himself. You put Vladimir on the Yankees, and he’s hitting 50, 60 homers and driving in 200 runs.

Then later in the same conversation:

The devil himself would be afraid to pitch to that guy.

Or maybe Guerrero seems like a Hall of Famer because he practically knocked the laces out of baseballs for 16 eyeball-grabbing seasons, smashing line drives through ball parks across the continent and wowing on-lookers and colleagues alike with a throwing arm that made the proverbial “cannon for an arm” look like a Nerf gun.

When we look a little more closely, we note that Guerrero walked only 56 times per 162 games, for an on-base percentage only 61 points above his batting average. We note that, despite his ability to gun down base-runners from right, Guerrero’s range in the outfield was unexceptional, resulting in a negative career Ultimate Zone Rating (according to Fangraphs.com, which only started tracking the stat in 2002) and a negative career dWAR (according to Baseball-Reference). And we note that, while Guerrero twice stole 37 or more bases in a season, earning him a reputation as a valuable base-runner, he converted only 65.8% of his career stolen base attempts and grades out as a below-average base-runner according to formulas from both Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs.

All this adds up to a 55.2 WAR, roughly equal to that of Hall of Famers Harmon Killebrew and Willie Stargell but also non-Hall of Famers Bobby Bonds, Dick Allen, and Darrell Evans.

That quintet shows that seeming like a Hall of Famer is almost as important as actually playing like one. Using objective statistical analysis, it would be hard to deem any of those five players head and shoulders above the others, but reputation got two of them to Cooperstown and the others not even that close. Killebrew won five home runs titles and finished with 573 long balls while Stargell won two World Series titles as an outsized personality on a pair of memorable teams. More than Allen, Bonds, and Evans, Killebrew and Stargell put the “fame” in Hall of Fame.

Ironically, so too does Guerrero, whom LeBatard once called “The most anonymous superstar in sports.” Everyone assuming you’re a Hall of Famer shouldn’t automatically make you one, but giving off that Hall of Fame vibe makes for a reasonable tie-breaker. Vladimir Guerrero seems and feels like a Hall of Famer, and for a borderline case, that’s not too bad of a reason to make him one.

Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? is a Tuesday feature here.

Others in this series: Adrian BeltreAl OliverAlan TrammellAlbert BelleAlbert PujolsAllie ReynoldsAndy PettitteBarry BondsBarry LarkinBert BlylevenBill KingBilly MartinBilly PierceBobby GrichCecil TravisChipper JonesClosersCraig BiggioCurt FloodDan QuisenberryDarrell EvansDave ParkerDick AllenDon MattinglyDon Newcombe,Dwight EvansGeorge SteinbrennerGeorge Van HaltrenGus GreenleeHarold BainesHarry DaltonJack MorrisJeff BagwellJeff KentJim EdmondsJoe CarterJoe Posnanski, Johan SantanaJohn SmoltzJohnny MurphyJose Canseco,J.R. RichardJuan GonzalezKeith HernandezKen CaminitiKevin BrownLarry WalkerManny RamirezMaury WillsMel HarderMoises AlouOmar VizquelPete BrowningPhil CavarrettaRafael PalmeiroRoberto AlomarRocky Colavito,Roger MarisRon CeyRon GuidryRon SantoSammy SosaSean FormanSmoky Joe WoodSteve Garvey,Ted SimmonsThurman MunsonTim RainesTony OlivaVince ColemanWill Clark

Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? Johan Santana

Claim to fame: Fresh off the first no-hitter in the 8,000+ game history of the New York Mets, Johan Santana appears fully recovered from the shoulder surgery that cost him the 2011 season. Santana’s historic performance and his strong output through 11 starts this season suggest that the lefty’s career is far from finished and that the dominant pitcher we saw in Minnesota and Queens during an incredible five-year stretch — when he never finished out of the top-five in Cy Young voting — is back and ready to continue his path to Cooperstown.

Through 12 whole or partial Major League seasons, Santana has accomplished much, earning three ERA titles, three strikeout titles, a pitching triple crown, and two Cy Young awards while posting an ERA+ that currently ranks tied for 11th all-time (min. 1,000 innings pitched) and a WHIP that stands 20th among modern era hurlers. His 50.0 WAR is certainly impressive for such a (so far) brief career by Hall of Fame standards but would place him among the lower tier of Hall of Famers in that category.

Current Hall of Fame eligibility: Santana will be eligible for the Baseball Writers Association of America ballot five years after he retires, which doesn’t look to be all that soon.

Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? There are two questions to be answered here: Would Santana be a Hall of Famer right now, and will he be one when he retires? The latter defends somewhat on his health. The lefty is borderline Hall-worthy as is, but a few more productive seasons would seal his induction. If Santana’s early-2012 success is no aberration and he’s back to vintage-Johan, he shouldn’t have a problem approaching 200 wins, 2,500 strikeouts, and 60 WAR, totals respectable enough to garner Hall of Fame support when paired with multiple Cy Young awards during a fantastic peak.

More interesting, to me at least, is the question of whether Santana is already Cooperstown-qualified. To those who instinctively reject the idea that after less than a decade as a starting pitcher Johan is already a Hall of Famer, consider these blind résumés:

Pitcher A: 12 seasons, 371 G, 275 GS, 1,981.2 IP, 3.10 ERA, 141 ERA+, 1.118 WHIP, 3.55 SO/BB, 50.0 WAR, four all-star games, two Cy Young awards, three ERA titles (three ERA+ titles).

Pitcher B: 12 seasons, 397 G, 314 GS, 2,324.1 IP, 2.76 ERA, 131 ERA+, 1.106 WHIP, 2.93 K/BB, 50.3 WAR, six all-star games, three Cy Young awards, one MVP, five ERA titles (two ERA+ titles).

Pretty close, right? Almost identical really. Comparing raw numbers, Pitcher B might get the edge, but there’s good reason his ERA+ (which adjusts ERA according to league average ERA as well as a pitcher’s home ballpark; 100 is average, higher is better) is 10 points worse than Pitcher A’s despite Pitcher B’s lower ERA. Pitcher B, a first-ballot Hall of Famer, pitched in an extreme pitcher-friendly era and in a cavernous home park. Pitcher B boasts a slightly larger body of work, but Baseball-reference.com’s WAR formula asserts that this only cancels out Pitcher A’s superior production relative to his contemporaries.

If you haven’t yet guessed, Pitcher A is Johan Santana, and Pitcher B is Sandy Koufax, and, disregarding preconceptions, the two are extremely comparable. Both left-handers enjoyed relatively brief careers as starting pitchers but also substantial stints as the consensus best pitcher in the world, during which they each won multiple Cy Young awards and finished among the top votegetters for the award in several other seasons. Koufax’s legend is inflated by his strikingly low ERA numbers, which, again, are a product of when he pitched, the offense-starved 1960s, and where he pitched, deep-fenced Dodger Stadium. Santana’s first 12 seasons have been just as productive as Koufax’s dozen-year career with just as strong of a peak.

Johan is still three no-hitters short of Sandy’s career total, but by almost all other measures the two are near-equals. Santana may or may not already be deserving of a Hall of Fame plaque, but if you argue he’s not, you’re arguing against Koufax as well.

Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? is a Tuesday feature here.

Others in this series: Adrian BeltreAl OliverAlan TrammellAlbert BelleAlbert PujolsAllie ReynoldsAndy PettitteBarry BondsBarry LarkinBert BlylevenBill KingBilly Martin, Billy PierceBobby GrichCecil TravisChipper JonesClosersCraig BiggioCurt FloodDan QuisenberryDarrell EvansDave ParkerDick AllenDon MattinglyDon Newcombe,Dwight EvansGeorge SteinbrennerGeorge Van HaltrenGus GreenleeHarold BainesHarry DaltonJack MorrisJeff BagwellJeff KentJim EdmondsJoe CarterJoe PosnanskiJohn SmoltzJohnny MurphyJose Canseco, J.R. RichardJuan GonzalezKeith HernandezKen CaminitiKevin BrownLarry WalkerManny RamirezMaury WillsMel HarderMoises AlouOmar VizquelPete BrowningPhil CavarrettaRafael PalmeiroRoberto AlomarRocky Colavito,Roger MarisRon CeyRon GuidryRon SantoSammy SosaSean FormanSmoky Joe WoodSteve Garvey,Ted SimmonsThurman MunsonTim RainesTony OlivaVince ColemanWill Clark