I recently asked 425 respondents to rank the most-deserving players at each position not in the Hall of Fame, ranging from 1 for most-deserving to 10 for least-deserving. With respect to Carlos Beltran, the results for center field might have surprised me most.
Again, I mean no disrespect to Beltran, who recently wrapped an outstanding career and compares favorably to numerous Hall of Famers. My friend Adam Darowski inducted Beltran into his Hall of Stats and ranks the former Kansas City Royals standout in front of Ernie Banks, Andre Dawson, and Roberto Alomar, among others. Still, I didn’t expect such a clear divide here between Beltran and the other nine center fielders on the ballot.
That said, having previously presented results for pitchers, catchers, first basemen, second basemen, third basemen, shortstops, and left fielders, here’s how voting went for center fielders.
Q8 – Rank the following center fielders, ranging from 1 for most-deserving of Hall of Fame induction to 10 for least-deserving
[From a survey of 425 respondents, fielded via Qualtrics]
Perhaps Beltran benefits from having a recently-completed body of work. I also wonder if Beltran might’ve dropped a little in the results had I gone with my initial instinct to include Mike Trout as a candidate. I decided against it because Trout’s only in his ninth season. Still, somehow just days past his 28th birthday, Trout’s 71.7 WAR is already better than any man here. It’s also better than Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle, Ty Cobb, or any other center fielder in baseball history through their first nine seasons.
A more detailed breakdown of the voting shows that Beltran wasn’t a consensus first pick. He got the fourth-fewest first-place votes of a position winner after Adrian Beltre (46), Joe Mauer (80), and Lou Whitaker (161), with Andruw Jones and Dale Murphy each siphoning a fair number of votes.
As I’ve been saying repeatedly through these posts, I’m struck again about the parity in the results between Jones, Murphy, and Kenny Lofton and Jim Edmonds. I wouldn’t really have a problem with any of these men being enshrined. Murphy’s long been a personal favorite. Jones, Lofton, and Edmonds are all underrated and, unfortunately, look destined to be for years to come.
With the help of filters via Qualtrics, here are some more findings:
- The 65 voters who rated Dale Murphy the top center fielder ranked Roger Clemens behind Curt Schilling, 4.02 to 3.80, and Barry Bonds behind Shoeless Joe Jackson (and Lance Berkman), 4.42 to 2.35 (with 4.34 for Berkman.)
- Generally, the more favorable a view that a voter held of Curt Flood — a standout center fielder for the St. Louis Cardinals before he sacrificed his career challenging the Reserve Clause — the dimmer a view the voter tended to take of Clemens and Bonds. Because of Flood having such an unusually-wide distribution of votes, we can break it down a little further (rounding to the nearest tenth of a percent for Bonds and Clemens’ totals):
- Meanwhile, Bonds and Clemens fared better with the 282 voters who ranked Beltran, Jones, or Lofton first, with Bonds receiving an average ranking of 1.8 from these voters and Clemens receiving an average ranking from them of 1.84.
Beyond this, there isn’t too much else to say. If I field this survey again in the future, I might swap out Johnny Damon and Jim Wynn for Trout and either Reggie Smith (who was on a packed right field ballot) or Fred Lynn. It’s interesting to see a bit more support up top for Cesar Cedeno and Bernie Williams, though there’s a pretty clear division with them as well.
Anyhow, that’s all for now. We’ll finish up with right field tomorrow.
Just getting caught up? Check out results for pitchers, catchers, first basemen, second basemen, third basemen, shortstops, and left fielders.
5 Replies to “The most-deserving players not in the Hall of Fame: Center fielders”
Among retired center fielders with at least 50 rWAR, here’s how they rank in WAR per 650 PA:
1 Jim Edmonds 4.9
2 Kenny Lofton 4.8
3 Andruw Jones 4.7
4 Chet Lemon 4.6
5 Jim Wynn 4.5
6 Cesar Cedeno 4.2
7 Carlos Beltran 4.1
8 Fred Lynn 4.1
9 Willie Davis 4.0
10 Ellis Burks 3.9
Flood is at 3.9, Williams is at 3.6, and Damon and Murphy are at 3.3. Flood doesn’t have enough of a career – due to no fault of his own. Williams is probably the best candidate of the four. Damon and Murphy end up at the same WAR/650, but Murphy had a dominant peak that Damon never did.
All time best center field WAR/650, with a minimum of 40 rWAR? Lenny Dykstra at 5.2! That name surprises me every time I see it. He’s followed by 19th century great Pete Browning at 5.0 – with much shorter seasons. They are the only two above Edmonds. It’s a travesty that he fell off the balott rather than be elected.
But for whatever reason, center fielders have been held to a much higher standard of greatness by the writers. After Mantle, Mays, and Snider were elected, the writers waited 21 years before electing another center fielder – Puckett in 2001. Since then, they’ve added Dawson and Griffey. Only three center fielders in the past 40 years. While they passed on Edmonds, Lofton, and Jones – all no doubters by HoF standards.
How about Vada Pinson?
Oh, and Mike Trout is at a ridiculous 8.8 WAR/650, second only to Babe Ruth all time (Babe broke baseball with a 10 WAR/650).
I’m shocked that you have the likes of Curt Flood, Cesar Cedeno, Jimmy Wynn, Jim Edmonds, Dale Murphy, and Kenny Lofton on your list of HOF deserving center fielders while at the same time leaving off two guys I feel are much more deserving….Vada Pinson and Al Oliver! Forget the home runs for some of them and simply look at the hits, batting average, runs scored, RBI’S….these are the numbers that make complete offensive players. These two guys were much better all around athletes and ballplayers who played with and were overshadowed by some HOF’s and more popular players. As for fielding, they were fast, smart, and both had great arms. They also played in a very different era when the ball was not as lively and the consistency of pitchers was much better….. acknowledge them and give them some credit. They are two stars who were never given the credit they so well deserve.
Andruw Jones, according to Bobby Cox, saved in average one run a game. He beat his body for 10 years and by age 30 was done. Still he hit over 400 home runs, energized a great pitching staff. To me, he’s the most deserving.