Category: Baseball Hall of Fame

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What ballot he was on: 2025 Classic Baseball Era Committee ballot

How he did: Elected to the Hall of Fame on Dec. 8, 2024, with 14 of 16 votes

Previous known times he’d been a Veterans Committee or Era Committee candidate: 3

Previous highest showing as a veteran candidate: Parker received seven votes from the then-Modern Baseball Era Committee in its 2020 election.

Number of times he appeared on a Baseball Writers Association of America ballot for the Hall of Fame: 15

Thoughts on his candidacy this year: Dave Parker’s election to the Hall of Fame is progress. I don’t mean this in the sense that I consider his election the righting of some long injustice related to his individual candidacy. While Parker was one of the most celebrated players in baseball in his prime, winning the 1978 National League Most Valuable Player Award, he wasn’t one of the two candidates I cared most about this year, namely Dick Allen and Vic Harris. By traditional statistical measures, Parker is a middle-of-the-pack Hall of Fame outfielder. By sabermetrics, he’s more than likely near the bottom of the pack.

All the same, I’m happy to see Parker will be standing on the dais in Cooperstown next summer, in part because the Hall of Fame went 16 years without enshrining any living players as veteran candidates after Bill Mazeroski in 2001. And even after that trend began to reverse in recent years, starting with Alan Trammell and Jack Morris’s enshrinements in 2018, there’ve still been players who’ve died before they could go in since, notably Allen, who finally got in posthumously today. The veteran voting process remains restricted at the moment, with the same eras of players generally not being considered in consecutive years.

I feel about Parker’s pending enshrinement a bit like I felt about Harold Baines getting inducted in 2019. Neither has a good case sabermetrically. In fact, one could even argue that Baines and Parker each have lackluster cases by advanced stats. There are many candidates I care more about and increasingly, this is skewing toward Negro Leagues candidates. It’s where I see the greatest underrepresentation in Cooperstown. I will also say there are deep problems with how Negro Leagues player are currently considered, lumping them in with all other players who made their greatest mark before 1980 and restricting ballots to no more than eight men. It’s a recipe for ensuring a continued backlog of Negro Leagues greats for years to come.

Still, if the choice is between men like Parker and Baines being inducted versus no living players going in at all through the veterans’ process for Cooperstown, count me as happy they’re Hall of Famers. The 73-year-old Parker’s had some health issues in recent years and it’s great to know he and his family will get to enjoy this honor together. 

Do I think he belonged on this ballot? Relative to the other men who were on the ballot, Parker didn’t look out of place. And he nails the fame part of Hall of Famer. So that’s probably enough. In terms of sabermetrics, there were other players from Parker’s era who were superior and didn’t make this ballot. And I can think of several better Negro Leagues candidates. 

But overall, Parker’s presence on this ballot and his pending enshrinement is no great injustice. Honestly, I’ll be smiling when induction day rolls around next summer.

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What ballot he’s on: 2025 Classic Baseball Era Committee ballot, to be considered Dec. 8 at the winter meetings

Previous known times he’s been a Veterans Committee or Era Committee candidate: 6 

Highest showing as a veteran candidate: Allen has twice missed enshrinement by one vote as a veteran candidate, receiving 11 of 16 votes from the then-Golden Era Committee in its 2015 election and receiving the same total from the then-Golden Days Era Committee in its 2022 election.

Number of times he appeared on a Baseball Writers Association of America ballot for the Hall of Fame: 14

Thoughts on his candidacy this year: News of Bill Melton’s death has prompted me to write about Allen’s candidacy. Almost nine years ago, Melton was one of several former teammates of Allen’s who I interviewed for Sporting News. Melton told me something that seemed to reflect what, to me, is a common misunderstanding about Allen, who is perhaps the most misunderstood player in baseball history.

“For the Hall of Fame, you need numbers,” Melton told me then. “Dick was not around long enough to have those numbers.” 

On one hand, I can see where Melton was coming from. By traditional stats, Allen’s numbers are good but seem underwhelming for Cooperstown: 351 homers, .292 batting average and 1,848 hits in 15 seasons. More than this, Allen was effectively washed-up by his early 30s and out of baseball at 35.

And that doesn’t even get into Allen’s reputation for being difficult, which was my impetus for seeking out his former teammates. Interestingly, most had positive things to say about him, which might have just been politeness with the media, though I sensed genuine appreciation for the man. I came away from that article with the impression that it was more the perception of Allen’s stats that was keeping him out of Cooperstown than anything to do with his personality, which is unfortunate because Allen’s numbers really shouldn’t be the dividing line.

By even basic sabermetrics, which account for the difficulty of Allen’s era for hitters, he is among the best offensive players not enshrined. For players with at least 5,000 known plate appearances, Allen’s 156 OPS+ is fifth-best among non-enshrined, inactive players, trailing only: Pete Browning and Mark McGwire, who each have a 163 OPS+; Joe Jackson, who has a 170 OPS+; and Barry Bonds, who has a 182 OPS+.

Of the men in front of Allen, it’s easy enough to know why they aren’t enshrined. Browning played in the 19th century and had a lousy reputation as a fielder. Jackson participated in throwing the 1919 World Series. McGwire has admitted publicly to steroid use and even if Bonds hasn’t, it seems pretty obvious that he was on something that took his numbers to stratospheric heights in the early 2000s. My wife and I had tickets to the Reggie Jackson Softball Classic at the Oakland Coliseum in October where Bonds, who is Jackson’s cousin, made a brief speaking appearance. Bonds has slimmed down considerably in retirement, looking nothing like the hulking slugger of old.

Personally, I have nothing against Bonds eventually going into Cooperstown, as I think he was one of the greatest all-around players ever before he likely juiced. And Bonds also did whatever he did largely before the players’ union agreed to steroid testing around 2005. I can’t really fault a player for breaking a rule that wasn’t being enforced. But, all that said, I still think it’s going to be awhile before a critical mass of veteran voters come around on Bonds.

The same holds true for Allen, I’d venture. OPS+ is not a hard metric to learn, but without having polled this year’s Classic Baseball Era Committee members, my guess is there aren’t a dozen with strong enough thoughts on it to go to the mat for Allen.

I think Allen is a Hall of Famer. And my research on veteran candidates over the years has taught me that those who fall just short tend to later get in, such as Leo Durocher, Leon Day and Bill Mazeroski, who all missed by a vote before they got their plaques. I think the same thing will happen for Allen eventually. I just don’t know if that will happen on Sunday when the committee reconvenes or at some point in the future.

Do I think Allen belongs on this ballot? Absolutely, though I will add that it’s frustrating that Allen might commandeer a space on a small ballot for however many election cycles to come until he gets into Cooperstown. 

To expound a little, I think Allen’s good enough that it’d be unjust to keep him off these ballots until he gets in, but I’d almost rather see his spot go to less-popular candidates who need time to build momentum. Statistical research is helping unearth many, maybe even dozens of Negro Leagues candidates and I’d rather the committee take time to learn about these men than rehashing the same conversations year in, year out.

But then, that’s kind of a Cooperstown tradition.

Do I think Allen gets into the Hall of Fame this year? I don’t know, though I suspect it will be close either way.

Many thanks to my friend Deron Schreck for going out today and taking a photo of John Donaldson’s grave for this post.

What ballot he’s on: 2025 Classic Baseball Era Committee ballot, to be considered Dec. 8 at the winter meetings

Previous known times he’s been a Veterans Committee or Era Committee candidate: 1 (2022) 

Highest showing as a veteran candidate: 50% from the Early Baseball Era Committee for the 2022 election

Number of times he appeared on a Baseball Writers Association of America ballot for the Hall of Fame: 0

Thoughts on his candidacy this year: I like to think I was an early adopter on John Donaldson being underrated historically. 

I wrote a post for this website back in 2010 referring to Donaldson as a great pitcher who people had likely never heard of. It was really interesting researching that article, learning about how Donaldson had amassed 363 wins that were known at that point to researchers between Negro League and semi-pro play from 1908 to 1940. It’s an incredible story and one worth preserving in one form or another in baseball’s annals.

Thing is, a lot has changed since 2010 regarding Negro League research. Landmark statistical research has helped get at least partial numbers of many Black greats onto Baseball-Reference.com. And, at least in Donaldson’s case, the numbers are pretty underwhelming. They show that Donaldson went 6-9 with a 4.14 ERA and 0.7 WAR for the Kansas City Monarchs between 1920 and 1921.

Does this mean that Donaldson’s legend is destroyed? Not necessarily. These are numbers for two known seasons out of a three-decade run. They represent a fraction of his productivity. There’s still so much about Donaldson’s story that we don’t know, just as it is with many other Black greats.

What I will say, though, is that there are a number of other Black players not in the Hall of Fame whose known numbers make me think they might deserve a spot on this ballot ahead of Donaldson. 

There’s his teammate and shortstop Dobie Moore, whose 162-game averages are a beefy 8.7 WAR, with 12 homers, 138 RBIs and a .350/.393/.524 slash line. George Scales is at a .320/.424/.509 slash and is up to 697 known hits. The fact that his career spanned 1921 to 1946 tells me there might be a whole lot more hits. Then there’s Rap Dixon – who, like Donaldson, has some very passionate supporters for his Hall of Fame case – and projects as one of the best hitters of the 1920s and ‘30s with 162-game averages of 22 homers, 132 RBIs and a .336/.415/.554 slash. And there are probably many more Negro League greats who could be noted here.

This isn’t to take too much away from Donaldson. I think I’d just prefer to consider candidates at this point whose greatness is being borne out by the latest statistical research. 

Do I think Donaldson belongs on this ballot? I want to preface this by saying that to me Donaldson belongs on a larger ballot. But on this particular eight-man ballot, there are probably many other candidates I’d prefer before him.

Do I think Donaldson gets into the Hall of Fame this year? Hard to say. Donaldson clearly had some momentum his last time out, missing by only four votes. The fact that that committee enshrined another early Black great, Bud Fowler, tells me Donaldson’s lack of stats on Baseball-Reference.com might not derail his candidacy this year. Still, I wouldn’t count on him going in.

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What ballot he’s on: 2025 Classic Baseball Era Committee ballot, to be considered Dec. 8 at the winter meetings

Previous known times he’s been a Veterans Committee or Era Committee candidate: 2 (1982 and 2022) 

Highest showing as a veteran candidate: 62.5% from the Early Baseball Era Committee for the 2022 election

Number of times he appeared on a Baseball Writers Association of America ballot for the Hall of Fame: 0

Thoughts on his candidacy this year: Vic Harris is one of the reasons I wish the Hall of Fame had its veteran voters consider all candidates in its purview each year. Harris, who is at left in the photo above and managed the Homestead Grays, fell two votes shy of induction in the Early Baseball Era Committee’s 2022 election. Had he been up for consideration again the following year, Harris might have been able to build momentum toward enshrinement. This is how it used to go, at least, in Cooperstown’s history.

Take William Hulbert, the first president of the National League in 1876. Since 2015, I’ve researched known Veterans or Era Committee candidates. Hulbert’s case is among those that have struck me. He was a Veterans Committee candidate as early as 1976, which I would suspect had something to do with the National League’s centennial that year. Hulbert’s candidacy slowly gathered steam before he began to approach enshrinement in the 1990s. He missed by a vote in 1993, came in a close second to Leo Durocher in the non-players category in 1994 and finally got in in 1995.

I’ve learned through my research that the Veterans Committee kept a permanent list of candidates. Sometimes, these types of candidates have made it in, be it Vic Willis or Joe Gordon. I’m guessing this practice is still in place with the Era committees, since all eight candidates on this year’s ballot have been up for consideration before. All the same, a lot’s changed since Harris had his near-miss with the Early Baseball Era Committee three years ago. The committee name is different, as are its years of consideration, covering all players who made their greatest contribution prior to 1980 instead of before 1950.

There are a lot of unknowns still, such as the names of who will be voting in this election. Still, I can’t say I like Harris’s odds that much, which is unfortunate. Negro League managers seem badly underrepresented in the Hall of Fame. Charles Fouche also does a good job in Harris’s SABR bio of explaining just how stellar of a candidate he is, noting that he went 754-352, won eight titles and was a solid player to boot.

“Harris was not only the greatest Negro League manager of all times, it can be argued that he may well have been the greatest manager in the history of baseball,” Fouche writes. “If Cooperstown cannot use him in its outfield, surely it can use him as a dugout strategist.”

Harris seems like he should be automatic to me in getting into the Hall of Fame. The fact that it might not happen this year says more to me about the current veterans voting practices than anything to do with his case.

Do I think Harris belongs on this ballot? Absolutely.

Do I think Harris gets into the Hall of Fame this year? Without knowing the makeup of the Era Committee this year, it’s hard to gauge what sort of odds Harris will have. That said, I’m not optimistic.

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What ballot he’s on: 2025 Classic Baseball Era Committee ballot, to be considered Dec. 8 at the winter meetings

Previous times he’s been on a Veterans Committee or Era Committee ballot: 5 (2009, 2011, 2014, 2018, 2020)

Highest showing as a veteran candidate: 37.5% from the Modern Baseball Era Committee for the 2020 election

Number of times he appeared on a Baseball Writers Association of America ballot for the Hall of Fame: 15

Highest showing on a BBWAA ballot for Cooperstown: 42.6% in his third year of eligibility in 1995. Garvey went the then-full 15 years on the ballot but lost significant traction as years went on, barely topping 20% of the vote his final time with the writers

Thoughts on his candidacy this year: When I interviewed Steve Garvey in 2016 for Sporting News, he spoke positively of his Hall of Fame case. “I think there’s a reason why I’ve been on the ballot,” Garvey told me. “Hopefully the voters will see that and give me the greatest honor of my career and put me in the Hall of Fame.”

I don’t know how much I trust Garvey’s judgment. He ran this year as the Republican nominee for one of California’s U.S. Senate seats, seeking office in a place where the GOP rarely wins statewide elected office. And while votes are still being counted as I write this, results suggest that Garvey will wind up losing to Rep. Adam Schiff by at least 15 points. It’ll likely be better than Republican Mark Meuser (a name I just learned) fared against Sen. Alex Padilla in 2022, but that’s not really saying much.

I’d be curious to see if Garvey’s political turn helps him with veteran voters for the Hall this year, particularly given what went down nationally last week. Barring that, Garvey doesn’t seem like a favorite to me on this veterans’ ballot, which also features Dick Allen, Ken Boyer, John Donaldson, Vic Harris, Tommy John, Dave Parker and Luis Tiant. I see at least four candidates here who I’d think would have better chances than Garvey.

The favorite might be Allen, who missed by one vote with the Golden Era Committee in its 2015 election and one vote with the Golden Days Era Committee in its 2022 election. I wouldn’t be stunned to see Allen just miss again with this year’s committee. Sabermetrically, Allen is a tremendous candidate, arguably among the most underrated hitters in baseball history by metrics like OPS+. Still, something seems to be holding up Allen’s candidacy, whether it’s perceived character issues or a lack of understanding about the need to adjust his raw stats for era.

Beyond Allen, Tiant just died and might garner a sympathy vote, though that’s not always a sure thing, as the long-term candidacy of Gil Hodges would attest. Parker is still living and has had health woes in recent years, but that doesn’t guarantee anything either. Outside of them, I’ve been interested to see if Jim Kaat’s induction will help John, who has a similar case built around longevity.

Statistically, the best things Garvey has going for his case is that he came close to 3,000 hits and was a 200-hit machine much of his career. His 1974 National League MVP and four Gold Glove awards as a first baseman doesn’t hurt things either. He’d be a fairly egregious selection, though, in terms of sabermetrics, with his 38 WAR in the same range as Harold Baines.

Garvey’s off-field exploits – namely fathering children with two women around the same time when he wasn’t married to either – might not help his case. I will say that one of my favorite quotes from Garvey when I talked to him about this (which for whatever reason I didn’t wind up using in my piece for Sporting News) was, “That wasn’t exactly a felony.” Again, Garvey seems like the kind of guy who will always be on his own side. And in these political times, with the right electorate at least, it just might work.

Do I think Garvey belongs on this ballot? No, there are any number of other players with better cases

Who I’d rather see in Garvey’s place on this ballot: I’ve been something of the proverbial broken record on my friend Adam Darowski’s fine podcast, “Building the Ballot” about how I see the greatest opportunity for the Hall of Fame being in honoring the many fine Black candidates from the Negro Leagues. This is because of the outstanding work in the baseball research community that has been helping the numbers of many of these players start to finally become known.

Rather than rehash Garvey’s tired case, I’d much rather see voters consider candidates like Charlie Smith, Dick Redding, Dick Lundy, Newt Allen, or Dobie Moore, just to name five – though there are probably at least a couple dozen other Negro League candidates who might deserve a plaque. Or, if the comparison needs to be made with another first baseman of Garvey’s era, Keith Hernandez is, at least sabermetrically, a vastly better choice.

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This is the final entry of a nine-part series, based on a poll of 425 respondents. Here are results for pitchers, catchers, first basemen, second basemen, third basemen, shortstops, left fielders, and center fielders.

It’s probably no surprise that in a recent survey I conducted via the website Qualtrics, having 425 respondents vote on the most-deserving players not in the Hall of Fame at each position, Ichiro Suzuki proved one of the three top vote recipients along with Albert Pujols and Derek Jeter.

Like Pujols and Jeter, Suzuki looks like a future no-doubt Hall of Famer, arriving from Japan at 27 and quickly becoming baseball’s best contact hitter. While Suzuki faded considerably over the last half of his big league career as he began to approach 40, his first 10 years stateside were a beautiful thing, good for a .331 batting average, an American League Most Valuable Player Award, and an astonishing 2,224 hits.

What’s interesting to me with the following results, though, isn’t so much how Suzuki did, because that’s expected, but how Larry Walker gave him a bit of a run for his money.

Q9 – Rank the following right fielders, ranging from 1 for most-deserving of Hall of Fame induction to 10 for least-deserving

Player	Average ranking
Ichiro Suzuki	1.89
Larry Walker	3.31
Dwight Evans	5.08
Gary Sheffield	5.33
Bobby Abreu	5.82
Sammy Sosa	6.10
Roger Maris	6.32
Bobby Bonds	6.48
Tony Oliva	6.87
Reggie Smith	7.78

[From a survey of 425 respondents, fielded via Qualtrics]

Now that I think of it a little more, I could actually see some people being miffed Walker didn’t overtake Suzuki in the results. By sabermetrics, Walker is the superior candidate for the entirety of his career, with 72.7 WAR and 48.3 Wins Above Average to Suzuki’s 59.3 WAR and 23.8 WAA. Granted, lifetime sabermetrics are a little unfair to Suzuki, since they don’t incorporate useful time he spent as a player in Japan. Even just comparing their age-27 to age-36 seasons, though, Walker comes out on top by advanced stats.

Still, these results seem like a bit of a coup for Walker, who’s entering his tenth and final year on the Baseball Writers Association of America ballot for Cooperstown and needs to jump just over 20 percent for his plaque. (It looks doable, given leaps made by Edgar Martinez, Tim Raines, and Mike Mussina in recent years.) A more detailed breakdown of the voting seems to bode pretty well for Walker, too, with the former Colorado Rockies great a consensus second choice and 79.5 percent of voters ranking him among their top four.

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Abreu	9	17	39	50	74	74	74	33	31	24
Bonds	14	13	16	31	39	77	83	87	42	23
Evans	14	33	69	60	69	64	49	46	16	5
Maris	19	29	47	27	38	46	50	50	46	73
Oliva	8	14	24	37	43	32	52	76	105	34
Sheffield	6	25	72	78	68	50	36	29	51	10
Smith	2	9	13	24	26	39	41	61	86	124
Sosa	8	44	62	53	39	26	27	35	31	100
Suzuki	279	81	20	16	3	3	3	3	10	7
Walker	66	160	63	49	26	14	10	5	7	25
Total	425	425	425	425	425	425	425	425	425	425

Other thoughts: This was another deep position and I wasn’t able to get a few players here that I would’ve liked. The most glaring omission was Dave Parker, who I really should’ve found space for. For older players, Tommy Henrich and Carl Furillo each have their supporters. I also am interested to see how Juan Gonzalez and Joe Carter might’ve done on the ballot, though I suspect they would’ve been near the bottom. They just aren’t good candidates by sabermetrics. In fact, Carter’s case by advanced stats is kind of garish, with -10.8 WAA.

I don’t really know either who those men could’ve displaced. Already, I freed up space on the ballot by having Shoeless Joe Jackson, who split his career between left and right, go on the left field ballot. I suppose if I field this again, Reggie Smith could be on the center field ballot, which was weaker.

A few other things to share here, courtesy of Qualtrics filters:

• The 48 voters who ranked Roger Maris first or second gave Mark McGwire an average ranking of 5.02 as opposed to his overall ranking of 5.17, not much of a difference. Their responses deviated sharply for Barry Bonds, though, with these voters ranking Bonds 3.9 against his overall average of 2.61.
• The 43 voters who ranked Bobby Bonds in the top three gave his son an average ranking of 2.60. I wondered if Barry might do worse with voters who ranked his father worse, as if the Bonds name might elicit a certain response in voters or if certain voters skimming quickly might’ve thought they were voting for Barry. Alas, there wasn’t a correlation, with Barry receiving an average ranking of 2.35 from the 152 voters who rated his father 8 or worse here.
• On one more Walker point, for anyone curious about the non-Walker voter, the 87 respondents who ranked him fifth or worse here gave Suzuki just 50 first-place votes and an average ranking of 2.61. Maris fared second-best with these voters, receiving nine first-place votes and an average ranking of 4.74. Dwight Evans and Bobby Bonds were the next most popular choices for these voters. My free Qualtrics account only allowed 10 questions, so I chose to forego demographic questions. But I’d guess these were probably older voters and that’s where Walker still needs to make up ground on the BBWAA ballot.

That said, this officially wraps up this series. Thanks to everyone who voted and everyone who’s been reading. It’s my hope that this series can spur additional research.

Just getting caught up? Here are results for pitchers, catchers, first basemen, second basemen, third basemen, shortstops, left fielders, and center fielders.

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I recently asked 425 respondents to rank the most-deserving players at each position not in the Hall of Fame, ranging from 1 for most-deserving to 10 for least-deserving. With respect to Carlos Beltran, the results for center field might have surprised me most.

Again, I mean no disrespect to Beltran, who recently wrapped an outstanding career and compares favorably to numerous Hall of Famers. My friend Adam Darowski inducted Beltran into his Hall of Stats and ranks the former Kansas City Royals standout in front of Ernie Banks, Andre Dawson, and Roberto Alomar, among others. Still, I didn’t expect such a clear divide here between Beltran and the other nine center fielders on the ballot.

That said, having previously presented results for pitchers, catchers, first basemen, second basemen, third basemen, shortstops, and left fielders, here’s how voting went for center fielders.

Q8 – Rank the following center fielders, ranging from 1 for most-deserving of Hall of Fame induction to 10 for least-deserving

Player	Average ranking
Carlos Beltran	2.34
Andruw Jones	4.19
Kenny Lofton	4.46
Dale Murphy	4.52
Jim Edmonds	4.67
Bernie Williams	6.32
Curt Flood	6.47
Cesar Cedeno	6.63
Johnny Damon	7.30
Jim Wynn	8.10

[From a survey of 425 respondents, fielded via Qualtrics]

Perhaps Beltran benefits from having a recently-completed body of work. I also wonder if Beltran might’ve dropped a little in the results had I gone with my initial instinct to include Mike Trout as a candidate. I decided against it because Trout’s only in his ninth season. Still, somehow just days past his 28th birthday, Trout’s 71.7 WAR is already better than any man here. It’s also better than Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle, Ty Cobb, or any other center fielder in baseball history through their first nine seasons.

A more detailed breakdown of the voting shows that Beltran wasn’t a consensus first pick. He got the fourth-fewest first-place votes of a position winner after Adrian Beltre (46), Joe Mauer (80), and Lou Whitaker (161), with Andruw Jones and Dale Murphy each siphoning a fair number of votes.

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Beltran	198	89	58	29	17	16	9	3	1	5
Cedeno	2	25	19	35	49	59	66	62	68	40
Damon	1	6	20	17	44	57	63	73	67	77
Edmonds	20	59	53	86	71	49	36	25	17	9
Flood	36	22	25	21	32	46	44	75	72	52
Jones	52	65	80	65	41	42	30	26	18	6
Lofton	32	73	72	71	47	29	37	34	23	7
Murphy	65	60	53	45	43	41	44	43	25	6
Williams	16	21	35	31	49	57	65	38	76	37
Wynn	3	5	10	25	32	29	31	46	58	186
Total	425	425	425	425	425	425	425	425	425	425

As I’ve been saying repeatedly through these posts, I’m struck again about the parity in the results between Jones, Murphy, and Kenny Lofton and Jim Edmonds. I wouldn’t really have a problem with any of these men being enshrined. Murphy’s long been a personal favorite. Jones, Lofton, and Edmonds are all underrated and, unfortunately, look destined to be for years to come.

With the help of filters via Qualtrics, here are some more findings:

• The 65 voters who rated Dale Murphy the top center fielder ranked Roger Clemens behind Curt Schilling, 4.02 to 3.80, and Barry Bonds behind Shoeless Joe Jackson (and Lance Berkman), 4.42 to 2.35 (with 4.34 for Berkman.)
• Generally, the more favorable a view that a voter held of Curt Flood — a standout center fielder for the St. Louis Cardinals before he sacrificed his career challenging the Reserve Clause — the dimmer a view the voter tended to take of Clemens and Bonds. Because of Flood having such an unusually-wide distribution of votes, we can break it down a little further (rounding to the nearest tenth of a percent for Bonds and Clemens’ totals):

Flood	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Bonds	3.6	4.2	2.5	2.7	2.6	3.3	2.5	2.3	2.4	1.6
Clemens	3.3	3.9	2	3.3	2.2	3.3	2.1	2	2.3	1.6
Votes	36	22	25	21	32	46	44	75	72	52

• Meanwhile, Bonds and Clemens fared better with the 282 voters who ranked Beltran, Jones, or Lofton first, with Bonds receiving an average ranking of 1.8 from these voters and Clemens receiving an average ranking from them of 1.84.

Beyond this, there isn’t too much else to say. If I field this survey again in the future, I might swap out Johnny Damon and Jim Wynn for Trout and either Reggie Smith (who was on a packed right field ballot) or Fred Lynn. It’s interesting to see a bit more support up top for Cesar Cedeno and Bernie Williams, though there’s a pretty clear division with them as well.

Anyhow, that’s all for now. We’ll finish up with right field tomorrow.

Just getting caught up? Check out results for pitchers, catchers, first basemen, second basemen, third basemen, shortstops, and left fielders.

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I chose this picture deliberately. It’s from my favorite season of Barry Bonds’ career, 1993, when he transformed the San Francisco Giants from a 90-loss team into one that won 103 games. Even though he wasn’t yet 30, Bonds won his third National League Most Valuable Player Award that season and also reached 60 Wins Above Replacement.

There are fans — and still many voting members of the Baseball Writers Association of America — who will look at Bonds alleged use of performance enhancing drugs following the 1998 season and conclude it invalidates anything that came before or after. To me, though, Bonds was a Hall of Famer before. And to be honest, I prefer the lithe version of Bonds who could hit for average and power, run, and play lock-down left field.

Today, Bonds heads up a poll sure to irk some readers. Last month, via the survey website Qualtrics, I had 425 respondents vote on 10 players at each position, from 1 for most-deserving of Hall of Fame induction to 10 for least-deserving. Having previously presented results for pitchers, catchers, first basemen, second basemen, third basemen, and shortstops, today focuses on left fielders.

Q7 – Rank the following left fielders, ranging from 1 for most-deserving of Hall of Fame induction to 10 for least-deserving

Player	Average ranking
Barry Bonds	2.61
Shoeless Joe Jackson	3.40
Manny Ramirez	4.51
Albert Belle	4.74
Lance Berkman	4.81
Minnie Minoso	5.27
Bob Johnson	6.44
Charlie Keller	6.89
Sherry Magee	7.49
Bobby Veach	8.85

[From a survey of 425 respondents, fielded via Qualtrics]

Early on in the voting, Shoeless Joe Jackson was actually beating Bonds by a narrow margin, which seems absurd to me. Conspiring to throw the 1919 World Series seems worse to me than steroid use, but other factors could be helping Jackson’s case. The passage of time and films like “Field of Dreams” and “Eight Men Out” have probably eased public rancor a bit. Other factors are likely at work, too — more about what they might be in a moment.

First, as always, here’s a more detailed breakdown of how people voted:

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Belle	16	35	71	99	85	40	23	24	20	12
Berkman	8	37	49	84	103	85	35	12	8	4
Bonds	299	38	8	5	5	2	2	4	14	48
Jackson	74	165	60	38	22	6	4	9	6	41
Johnson	2	4	8	25	61	111	125	55	23	11
Keller	3	3	17	21	32	59	113	126	37	14
Magee	1	7	10	16	38	36	56	106	122	33
Minoso	19	35	56	84	48	55	32	22	64	10
Ramirez	2	99	142	43	23	12	7	18	53	26
Veach	1	2	4	10	8	19	28	49	78	226
Total	425	425	425	425	425	425	425	425	425	425

I’m struck, first of all, to see Bonds and Jackson each so favorably rated. I had expected more ninth and tenth-place votes for each man. Instead, filters via the survey website that I used for this project, Qualtrics, tell me that 187 of 425 voters had Bonds and Jackson in their top two choices. Almost two-thirds of voters included Bonds and Jackson in their top four.

That said, there were some differences worth highlighting between voters who ranked Bonds first and those who preferred Jackson. The 299 respondents who voted Bonds first gave Jackson an average ranking of 3.72. The 74 respondents who voted Jackson first gave Bonds an average ranking of 6.03. There were also 48 respondents who ranked Bonds last, giving Jackson an average ranking of 2.48. I don’t know what this is about. It would seem to me that if voters could forgive Jackson his transgressions, they could do the same for Bonds.

Bonds suffered a little as well with other voters who might seemingly be sympathetic. Among them:

• The 131 voters who ranked Rose as most-deserving among third basemen were more likely to favor Shoeless Joe, giving Jackson an average ranking of 2.44 against 2.82 for Bonds. Bonds also did slightly worse with these voters than his 2.61 overall average;
• 269 of the 313 voters who ranked Clemens as most-deserving among pitchers named Bonds the most-deserving left fielder, giving him an average ranking of 1.37. Of the other 44 voters, here’s how the first-place votes went: 31 for Jackson; six for another of my favorite candidates, Minnie Minoso; five for Albert Belle; and two for Charlie Keller.
• The 202 voters who ranked Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro fourth or better gave Bonds an average ranking of 4.02 and Jackson an average ranking of 3.27.
• Just three of the 41 voters who thought Curt Schilling the top pitcher overall ranked Jackson ninth or tenth. Twenty-three of these voters ranked Bonds as such. (Granted, Bonds did far better with the 211 voters who ranked Schilling second, with Bonds rating an average of 1.56 with these voters as opposed to 6.59 among those who rated Schilling first.)

Other results aren’t as surprising, such as the 44 voters who rated Keith Hernandez, Steve Garvey, Fred McGriff, Gil Hodges, or Don Mattingly the top first baseman giving Bonds an average ranking of 5.73 and Shoeless Joe an average ranking of 2.30. My free Qualtrics account allowed just 10 questions, so I forewent demographic questions to get the maximum amount of baseball data and thus can’t verify my sense that these were older voters. But it’s clear these are voters who don’t have much use for sabermetrics.

Perhaps there’s a case to be made that, on balance, Jackson is a better Hall of Fame candidate than Bonds. Jackson hit .356, third-best lifetime. Babe Ruth is said to have copied his swing. Jackson also played for a World Series-winning team, the 1917 Chicago White Sox, unlike Bonds. And perhaps those who favor Jackson believe he was innocent of throwing the 1919 World Series, though evidence exists otherwise. I wonder as well if racial bias is hurting Bonds here, though I’m not confident enough of this to make a detailed argument.

Still, I don’t see the case for Jackson over Bonds. Even just comparing both players through their first 13 seasons — the length of Jackson’s career and the number of years Bonds is believed to have played clean — the sabermetric chasm is too wide. After all, Bonds racked up 74.5 Wins Above Average for these seasons, while Jackson was good for 40.2. I generally see 30-40 Wins Above Average as a good benchmark for Hall of Fame candidates I’d enshrine on the basis of sabermetrics. To me at least, a clean Bonds was an arguable Hall of Famer better than Jackson.

That said, thanks again to everyone who’s been reading along. We’ll finish up with center field and right field on Monday and Tuesday respectively.

Just getting caught up? Check out results for pitchers, catchers, first basemen, second basemen, third basemen and shortstops. Stay tuned in the days to come for results of the other two positions.

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Derek Jeter’s time approaches. In just a few months, the 14-time All Star and New York Yankees great will debut on the Baseball Writers Association of America’s ballot for Cooperstown. The only question at this point, really, is if Jeter can duplicate teammate Mariano Rivera’s unanimous induction with the writers.

Given Jeter’s underwhelming 72.4 WAR lifetime and porous defense according to sabermetrics (-243 defensive runs worse than average, lowest in baseball history), a few writers might withhold votes to make a statement. Still, Jeter will undoubtedly be close, if not unanimous. He nails the Fame part of Hall of Fame as well as few players of his generation.

Unsurprisingly, Jeter also heads up the latest round of results for my survey on the most-deserving players not in the Hall of Fame. As a reminder, I recently asked 425 respondents to rank 10 players at each position, from 1 for most-deserving of induction to 10 for least-deserving. Previous results have focused on pitchers, catchers, first basemen, second basemen, and third basemen. (As a disclaimer, I put Alex Rodriguez at third base for the survey. More about my rationale can be found in the third base results post.)

Here’s how voting for shortstops went.

Q6 – Rank the following shortstops, ranging from 1 for most-deserving of Hall of Fame induction to 10 for least-deserving

Player	Average ranking
Derek Jeter	1.63
Dave Concepcion	4.03
Nomar Garciaparra	4.61
Omar Vizquel	4.63
Bill Dahlen	4.98
Mark Belanger	5.92
Jack Glasscock	6.52
Maury Wills	6.70
Marty Marion	7.63
Cecil Travis	8.36

[From a survey of 425 respondents, fielded via Qualtrics]

Sabermetrically, these might be some of the least-inspiring results in the bunch. Jeter’s long had his detractors. Concepcion, who’s come moderately close on the veterans’ ballot for Cooperstown in recent years, doesn’t have any advanced stats to write home about either. Nor does Vizquel, who’s already crossed 40 percent on the writers’ ballot and looks destined for future induction. Meanwhile, Bill Dahlen, whose case is built around a re-examining of his career on the strength of his 75.4 WAR, is a ways down here.

As always, here’s a more detailed breakdown of how people voted:

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Belanger	10	22	44	59	70	57	49	26	29	59
Cncpcn.	19	74	89	85	79	39	21	12	4	3
Dahlen	19	84	37	34	50	68	76	31	14	12
Grcprra.	4	54	72	100	66	63	31	18	8	9
Glasscock	7	21	43	24	29	47	80	92	47	35
Jeter	340	29	22	7	4	10	2	2	1	8
Marion	2	6	9	11	30	37	58	112	116	44
Travis	0	6	7	13	15	21	35	69	122	137
Vizquel	15	103	68	52	40	46	26	16	40	19
Wills	9	26	34	40	42	37	47	47	44	99
Total	425	425	425	425	425	425	425	425	425	425

A few thoughts based on these numbers:

• That 391 of 425 voters rated Jeter a 3 or better here is one more sign to me he’ll sail into Cooperstown. But the scattering of lower votes hints to me that Jeter might not be unanimous. It’ll be interesting to see what happens.
• I’m also struck to see the wide chasm in votes between Dahlen and Jack Glasscock, with nearly twice as many voters ranking Dahlen in the top five. By Wins Above Average, which might be a fairer measure for 19th century players than WAR since the seasons were shorter, Dahlen and Glasscock are fairly even players.
• I’d like to talk to the 10 people who voted Mark Belanger most-deserving of induction. This is a brave claim to stake.
• Of the 34 respondents who voted Jeter a 4 or worse, Belanger, Concepcion, and Vizquel got the most first-place votes, with eight, seven, and five respectively. Don’t ask me how these things work.
• Cecil Travis is the only player of the 90 in this survey to receive zero first-place votes. He’s one of my favorite Hall of Fame candidates, essentially sacrificing his career to serve nearly four full seasons in World War II, seeing combat and suffering frostbite on his feet at the Battle of the Bulge. Cooperstown wouldn’t be any worse for his inclusion.

Anyhow, that’s all for now. Tune in tomorrow for the results of left field.

Just getting caught up? Check out results for pitchers, catchers, first basemen, second basemen, and third basemen. Stay tuned in the days to come for results of the other three positions.

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I don’t know if Adrian Beltre is smart or lucky. What I do know is there’s no way the Beltre in the photo above would’ve made the Hall of Fame playing out his career in Los Angeles, or his subsequent home, Seattle. At the end of 2009, after 12 seasons between both teams, Beltre owned a .270 lifetime batting average, due in part to the Dodgers and Mariners playing in two of the worst hitters’ parks in baseball.

But then Beltre signed with the Red Sox and then, following a brief stint in Boston, the Rangers. Playing in two of baseball’s best hitters’ parks, the rest is, as the saying goes, history. Beltre hit .307 over his final nine seasons, finished with 3,166 hits and 477 home runs, and he’ll more than likely be a first-ballot Hall of Famer.

Today, Beltre heads up his position for a survey I fielded recently, asking 425 respondents to rank 10 players at each position, from 1 for most-deserving of induction to 10 for least-deserving. Having previously presented results for pitchers, catchers, first basemen and second basemen, today focuses on third base.

Q5 – Rank the following third basemen, ranging from 1 for most-deserving of Hall of Fame induction to 10 for least-deserving

Player	Average ranking
Adrian Beltre	3.07
Miguel Cabrera	3.50
Alex Rodriguez	3.67
Pete Rose	4.55
Dick Allen	5.05
Scott Rolen	5.63
Graig Nettles	7.13
Buddy Bell	7.35
Ken Boyer	7.39
Darrell Evans	7.65

[From a survey of 425 respondents, fielded via Qualtrics]

As always, lots to unpack here. I’ll start by explaining the presence of a few players in the results. Alex Rodriguez technically played more games at shortstop and racked up more WAR at the position. But he was last an everyday shortstop in 2003 and spent more years as a third baseman. So it seemed more appropriate to me to put him at third base for this. I realized after voting started that it would’ve been interesting to have Rodriguez and Derek Jeter face off at shortstop. Oh well.

I maybe should’ve employed the same logic I used with Rodriguez with Dick Allen, who had a few superb years at third base early in his career before transitioning to first base. Still, space was tight on the ballot for first base so Allen wound up here. As for Pete Rose, who played a bunch of different positions, he had to go somewhere for this project and had some fine years in the mid-1970s at third base.

One interesting and probably unsurprising thing to note about Rose and Rodriguez is that they each drew far more first-place votes than Beltre or second-place finisher for this position, Miguel Cabrera. But Rose and Rodriguez each drew so many ninth and tenth-place votes that it dragged down their averages.

A more detailed breakdown of the voting is as follows:

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Allen	22	31	44	64	85	79	53	23	18	6
Bell	2	4	11	17	37	53	82	91	71	57
Beltre	46	126	124	72	30	8	7	8	3	1
Boyer	2	3	10	18	32	55	76	98	84	47
Cabrera	40	93	119	86	36	20	8	10	5	8
Evans	1	0	7	16	26	57	72	85	99	62
Nettles	4	5	5	23	43	74	86	71	60	54
Rodriguez	172	76	27	28	15	6	6	11	40	44
Rolen	5	16	44	74	98	68	29	25	33	33
Rose	131	71	34	27	23	5	6	3	12	113
Total	425	425	425	425	425	425	425	425	425	425

Via filters from the survey website Qualtrics, we can dig into the numbers a little more. A few fun things to note:

• The 131 voters who rated Rose first gave Rodriguez an average ranking of 4.82.
• The 172 voters who rated Rodriguez first gave Rose an average ranking of 5.20.
• The 113 voters who rated Rose last gave Rodriguez an average ranking of 4.16.
• The 44 voters who rated Rodriguez last gave Rose an average ranking of 2.77.

I’m struck by the relatively strong showing for Scott Rolen. Perhaps as Adrian Beltre and Miguel Cabrera are inducted in the years to come, Rolen can improve his numbers on the writers’ ballot. Rolen rose to 17.2 percent in his second year on the ballot and has eight more years to attempt an against-the-odds climb to 75 percent.

Other thoughts: There’s a pretty clear divide in the results after Rolen, though it wouldn’t be an awful day for Cooperstown if ever Graig Nettles, Buddy Bell, Ken Boyer, or Darrell Evans is enshrined. I wouldn’t be stunned to see Nettles or Boyer get inducted at some point, but Bell and Evans probably have long-term spots locked down in these sorts of projects.

It’d be nice to get more third basemen on the ballot in the future. Robin Ventura has a reasonably good case sabermetrically. So does Ron Cey. Bill Madlock doesn’t have the advanced stats to bolster his case, but he won four batting titles. Then there’s Clete Boyer, one of the best defensive third basemen in baseball history. At some point, Nolan Arenado might deserve a spot, too.

Anyhow, I’ll share results for shortstop tomorrow. Thanks again to everyone for reading so far.

Just getting caught up? Check out results for pitchers, catchers, first basemen, and second basemen. Stay tuned in the days to come for results of the other four positions.