Claim to fame: Jones rates among the greatest-hitting infielders, with 2,452 hits, 430 home runs and a .306 lifetime average. The 1999 National League Most Valuable Player, six-time All Star and longtime Atlanta Braves third baseman has declined since winning the 2008 batting title, though he’s wrapping an outstanding career.
Current Hall of Fame eligibility: Jones still plays and will be eligible for enshrinement through the Baseball Writers Association of America five years after he retires.
Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? The short answer is yes. Every eligible infielder with 400 home runs and a .300 lifetime batting average is in Cooperstown. The question is not if Jones will be enshrined but when.
I took part Friday in a forum discussion at Baseball Think Factory prompted by a blog post from Furman Bisher on news Jones may be retiring (Bisher’s a 91-year-old sportswriter who in 1949 conducted the only interview Joe Jackson granted about the 1919 World Series.) Bisher wrote of Jones:
I don’t care to get into a spitting fight over his ticket to Cooperstown, but I don’t foresee him as a first-ballot inductee. Nor a second, but somewhere down the line. If he had hit 500 home runs, that might have been the decider. Sorry, but he’ll come in somewhere behind Griffey Jr.
Several forum members objected, calling Jones a certain first or second-ballot pick. I side with Bisher, and I commented:
Five of the 10 batters that Jones compares most to on his Baseball-Reference page are in Cooperstown and only one, Mickey Mantle, was a first-ballot Hall of Famer. The others: Duke Snider (11th ballot), Billy Williams (6th ballot), Eddie Matthews (5th ballot) and Jim Rice (15th ballot.) Or, to put it another way, if you were filling out a Braves dream team and had a choice between Jones and Matthews at third, could you honestly take Chipper over Matthews? That’s what, in effect, would happen with making Jones a first-ballot inductee.
This attracted opposition. Some forum members suggested voting for worthy players regardless of their ballot and decried penalizing Jones for Matthews’ unjustly late enshrinement. I still wouldn’t give Jones a first ballot vote. To me, these votes are best rarely used, for immortals like Ken Griffey Jr. and Greg Maddux. Jones has fine numbers, but I doubt he’s considered immortal.
Few are. Of the 104 players the BBWAA has voted in (and 292 people elected total), just 44 made it on their first ballot, not counting Lou Gehrig and Roberto Clemente who were enshrined through special elections. Using Baseball-Reference, I compiled a list of the 44 first ballot inductees. They are:
- Hank Aaron
- Ernie Banks
- Johnny Bench
- Wade Boggs
- George Brett
- Lou Brock
- Rod Carew
- Steve Carlton
- Ty Cobb
- Dennis Eckersley
- Bob Feller
- Bob Gibson
- Tony Gwynn
- Rickey Henderson
- Reggie Jackson
- Walter Johnson
- Al Kaline
- Sandy Koufax
- Mickey Mantle
- Christy Matthewson
- Willie Mays
- Willie McCovey
- Paul Molitor
- Joe Morgan
- Eddie Murray
- Stan Musial
- Jim Palmer
- Kirby Puckett
- Cal Ripken Jr.
- Brooks Robinson
- Frank Robinson
- Jackie Robinson
- Babe Ruth
- Nolan Ryan
- Mike Schmidt
- Tom Seaver
- Ozzie Smith
- Warren Spahn
- Willie Stargell
- Honus Wagner
- Ted Williams
- Dave Winfield
- Carl Yastrzemski
- Robin Yount
Interestingly, Jones’ career Win Above Replacement (WAR) rating of 78.4 bests 19 first ballot Hall of Famers: Banks, Bench, Brock, Eckersley, Feller, Gwynn, Koufax, Jackson, McCovey, Molitor, Murray, Palmer, Puckett, Brooks Robinson, Jackie Robinson, Smith, Stargell, Winfield, Yount. It also ties Jones with Griffey, 59th all-time. But I don’t know if enough BBWAA members rely on sabermetrics yet for it to factor. I suspect more voters will employ a subjective sentiment that goes, Chipper was good but he should have been a little bit better… 500 home runs…
Even Roberto Alomar fell short his initial vote in January. Jones and Alomar each may rank among the best-hitting infielders in recent years, but Alomar nabbed 10 Gold Gloves while Jones hasn’t won any. Alomar’s reputation plummeted after he spit on an umpire in 1996, and he still got 73.7 percent of the Cooperstown vote. There are different ways to look at this. Some may suggest Jones, a player with arguably better offensive numbers (and, not that many writers care, better WAR) may receive a sufficient boost without Alomar’s personal baggage to garner the necessary 75 percent of the vote for Cooperstown. Maybe so. But I also think it shows when there’s doubt, the BBWAA votes conservatively.
For what it’s worth, most Hall of Famers needed multiple tries at induction, including Joe DiMaggio, Jimmie Foxx and Tris Speaker. Same goes for 14 of the 20 300-game winning pitchers in Cooperstown. And from 1937 until 1962, there were no first ballot selections. I could write more on how voting has changed over the years or what might make a first ballot Hall of Famer today. For now, I’ll close by saying there’s no shame if Jones joins the multitudes in Cooperstown without that distinction.
Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? is a Tuesday feature here.
12 Replies to “Does he belong in the Hall of Fame? Chipper Jones”
The HOF is on the verge of meaningless. The quickest way to restore its credibility is to go to a one ballot, one year only system. You either make it or you don’t. That way, all these marginal hangers on like Rice, Dawson, Gossage who qualify on the 10th ballot would not get in. Once there’s a debate about a players worthiness, he’s not worthy.
Turns out Chipper isn’t just a first-ballot HOFer, he’s a 97% first-ballot HOFer.
That’s an interesting concept. It wouldn’t have worked for the early days of Cooperstown, when the ballot sometimes teemed with 50 future members. We’d have a Hall of Fame with 44 members instead of 292– no Cy Young, no Rogers Hornsby, no George Sisler, etc. It would get so bad there’d have to be a second Hall of Fame built.
You could make an argument for implementing your system now, with a significantly weaker ballot, but I suspect over time, the same thing would happen. Even now, worthy players like Lou Whitaker get forgotten and leave the ballot in a year.
I visited Cooperstown the summer before I turned 14. One of the things I remember about the Hall of Fame is that its scope was overwhelming. Everything is there. I like that. I like that so many players are honored.
I would vote Jones in on 1st ballot if I had a choice. Why? Because he’s clearly a peer of many in The Hall. The rest is just a silly media person’s caste system.
Chipper’s a .300/.400/.500 hitter over 4000+ PA …and everyone with that, who’s eligible for Cooperstown, is in. So it’s a no brainer he belongs.
PS. Only 18 hitters besides Chipper, have ever maintained that .300/.400/.500 level of excellence across a minimum of 4000 PA’s. 18. Plus, by the end of the year, he might be a 1500 R & 1500 RBI guy.
Who knows, maybe that’s enough for somewhere in the high 70th or low 80th percentile Jones’ first time on the ballot, which could get him in.
I know it’s been several months since I read your post on your Hall votes for the IBWAA, but do you generally vote for a lot of players each year?
I’ve only done a vote once so far… and I decided I’d just vote for whoever I think belongs.. not worry about whether they belong in any particular class group in the Hall. So I guess I probably will vote a lot in the future too…maybe.
I don’t understand withholding a first ballot vote on a player. If a guy is hall worthy then vote him in instead of this stupid game of making a fella wait just because that is how it has been done in the past. Plus, how does one get to be a voter? Is there some level of demonstrating current and historical baseball knowledge involved? Like most things in life, just because something makes sense it doesn’t mean we have to do it.
Oh, yes, vote Chipper in, he is hall worthy and it would be cool to have someone in who graduated HS the same year I did. Him and Shack, the sports stars of our class.
A few days on from writing this post, my thoughts have shifted, thanks in part to the reaction from my readers. Even though I still wouldn’t give Jones a first ballot vote (what can I say, I’m stingy), my guess is that there’s not 25 percent of the BBWAA electorate that will feel the same as I do when it comes time to vote. Jones will get in his first time on the ballot, as will Griffey that year.
As far as how one comes to be a voter, my understanding is that a writer needs to pay BBWAA dues for 10 years in order to be eligible to vote for Cooperstown. The BBWAA only recently starting accepting online writers, having just allowed print writers in the past, though I don’t think any special knowledge base was required.
Anyhow, thanks for the comment, and stop by again sometime.
I believe that Chipper is a first round choice but doubt that he will be able to get in due to the bias that exists within the voters. Each voter grew up in a different time frame and due to this they tend to immortalize the players that they grew up watching and in turn place that era upon a pedestal which in their minds no later generation can ever achieve. As you mentioned in your article no player was inducted by a first round selection which was probably largely due with the writers fondness for the initial class of Ruth, Cobb, etc… and the belief that they made up the greatest generation of baseball, a sentiment that clearly persisted until that group of writers had been largely replaced by a younger group of writers. Perhaps Jones may not measure up to the likes of Ruth, Cobb, Gehrig, Mantle but if those were the standards nobody would appear worthy of HOF induction. It is without a doubt however, that when measured among his peers that Jones was clearly the preeminent player at his position over an extended career and to cap it off a terrific teammate on one of the best franchise in baseball over the last 20 years.
To anyone reading this post in light of Jones’ pending retirement, let me say that my views have changed in the past two years. Chipper’s a first ballot guy in my book, pretty much no question and probably somewhere among the top five third basemen all-time.